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~276 keys
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Unusual El Jefe Stormy 13th Hour
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    Just an observation here.


    There's a clean cloudy el jefe for sale at 260 keys, putting this sale for the duped far above it.

    There are also two sales at 160 each (https://marketplace.tf/items/539;5;u38)


    When sales are 160, 160, 293, would it not be clear which is the outlier?

    You're taking one sale with two glaringly obvious ones much lower.


    Hell, even this sale supports it being lower with the buyout cap.


    I'd recommend closing this and leaving Offline's sugg up, as it's much more accurate. 293 was a fairly obvious outlier to all.

        Yes, it is the point here. Prices don't change between two days, 160 keys happened on May 21 and 293 happened on May 23.

        There are more sales to investigate and passing them off as slightly older is ignorant.

            No, MB (the seller) had it for close to a year, as seen by his backpack a year ago:

            https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284?time=1523851200


            Full year to sell for 293 should also support that it isn't close to the true value of it.

                No, it didn't sell for above 2 days after being listed. His was listed for a full year, which is what I was trying to say.

                Many other sales happened and should be used here. 160 for the cmoon jefe is a reliable mini.

                    I have evidence that it was listed for half a year: https://imgur.com/a/ZkBrm5o

                    Also have evidence that there is a current duped seller, unsold for one year at 300 keys, which is very close to the 293 that MB got.


                    Two sales for 160 should be the correct mini here.

                          Here.

                          https://pastebin.com/Yv1Xv18g

                          No other sales.

                          Two for 160, one for 293.


                          Sellers for 232, 232, 250, 260, 300.


                          293 is an outlier, true price is 160. I advise closing this.

                            i never counted it at 293... but at 250 due to the buyout which is closer that any other buyout / sale. like this one too. https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115062041#!/compare/1551398400/1551484800 i dont know about the tc but the law is ~155 https://marketplace.tf/items/30362;5;u19;strange an other trade that proove that the 160 keys price is low unless you value the tc less than 300..

                            Two for sale on tradeit.gg at $615 each: https://tradeit.gg/

                            isnt that over 300 keys each ? i mean who buy keys at 2.65 ?

                            Current sellers:

                            Unsold for a year at 300

                            Unsold for a day or two at 250

                            CLEAN unsold for ten days at 260

                            160 its closer to buy order prices ~140 https://marketplace.tf/items/539;5;u38/Cloudy%20Moon%20El%20Jefe.

                            160 is clearly quicksold.

                              No, keys are at 2.65 on the site. You can't buy the keys from the site, but that's what they're valued at. 232 each.


                              160 =/= 140, it doesn't matter if it's 'close to buy orders'. Sales happened, and thus that's what you take.


                              Yes, I know the sale is 250, but without the buyout it is even higher.


                              Two on tradeit are 232 keys

                              unsold for year at 300

                              unsold for day or two at 250

                              clean unsold for ten days at 260


                              All of these show that a 293 sale that conveniently caps at 250 is very high.

                              Regardless of whether 160 is 'close to buyers', two sales happened at 160. It's fairly clear that 160 is closer to its real price.

                                It being 293 and b/o capped supports further tha its an outlier. The tc sale is nearlybulk/is bulk and goes outdated in 2 days. The law sale is also one of the many there are, such as ones here: https://backpack.tf/item/3008918600 Tradeit.gg has their own site based key prices, they dont use cash or scm rates, and if i can pay 232 pure and get one then they are obviously selling for 232 pure. 160 might be sorta close to buyers at 140, but wheres any proof it sold fast. if you wanna call it a quicksell show some proof, like j58 has. As of now theres little to no proof that shows that the b/o capped 260 sale should be considered reasonable

                  https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/298073323219320834/583716162597158913/unknown.png


                  Ive been offered one for ~190 mixed, supports 250 being really high