Team Fortress 2
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
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Only usable sale : Duped Cloudy Moon El Jefe, Burning Merryweather, ~30 keys in mixed
-Burning Merryweather (90)
-most recent mini for the el jefe (250)
293 but buyout was 250
250 + 90 + 30 = 370
340 keys buyout https://gyazo.com/a5e186e79562537273288f8a998c9d65
Just an observation here.
There's a clean cloudy el jefe for sale at 260 keys, putting this sale for the duped far above it.
There are also two sales at 160 each (https://marketplace.tf/items/539;5;u38)
When sales are 160, 160, 293, would it not be clear which is the outlier?
You're taking one sale with two glaringly obvious ones much lower.
Hell, even this sale supports it being lower with the buyout cap.
I'd recommend closing this and leaving Offline's sugg up, as it's much more accurate. 293 was a fairly obvious outlier to all.
there are more sales for them but pricing a duped cloudy el jefe isnt the point here; so i just took the most recent mini which is 250.
Yes, it is the point here. Prices don't change between two days, 160 keys happened on May 21 and 293 happened on May 23.
There are more sales to investigate and passing them off as slightly older is ignorant.
buying to resell in the 2 next days for almost the double is called quickbuy. i dont see the problem, the person got item overpay according to his 250 keys buyout. there are more sales for them to show but again we only need a mini here and this is the most recent.
also, why would potatobacon take 280 in items while he was asking 340 pure if the jefe is 160 ?
No, MB (the seller) had it for close to a year, as seen by his backpack a year ago:
Full year to sell for 293 should also support that it isn't close to the true value of it.
i dont see how would that mean anything ? he's free to list it or trade it when he want and for what he want. 250 was the lowest price for any cloudy el jefe and its sold for above that 2 days after being listed. again many other sales happened anyway.
No, it didn't sell for above 2 days after being listed. His was listed for a full year, which is what I was trying to say.
Many other sales happened and should be used here. 160 for the cmoon jefe is a reliable mini.
listed for what price ? less than 250 ? and how do you know it was listed for a certain price for over a year. can you proove that please.
I have evidence that it was listed for half a year: https://imgur.com/a/ZkBrm5o
Also have evidence that there is a current duped seller, unsold for one year at 300 keys, which is very close to the 293 that MB got.
Two sales for 160 should be the correct mini here.
listed for what price ? less than 250 ? and how do you know it was listed for a certain price for over a year. can you proove that please. also , there are other sales for them i took the last one again , from a buyer who had real interest on it unlike the one who bought to resell quickly. or you really think he bought it for 160 thinking it was normal price then decided just after that to trade it for +60% more (actually listed less than any other seller) and this worked by coincidence ? check for other sales there are many.
Sure, I'll check for other sales
No other sales.
Two for 160, one for 293.
Sellers for 232, 232, 250, 260, 300.
293 is an outlier, true price is 160. I advise closing this.
i never counted it at 293... but at 250 due to the buyout which is closer that any other buyout / sale. like this one too. https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115062041#!/compare/1551398400/1551484800 i dont know about the tc but the law is ~155 https://marketplace.tf/items/30362;5;u19;strange an other trade that proove that the 160 keys price is low unless you value the tc less than 300..
Two for sale on tradeit.gg at $615 each: https://tradeit.gg/
isnt that over 300 keys each ? i mean who buy keys at 2.65 ?
Unsold for a year at 300
Unsold for a day or two at 250
CLEAN unsold for ten days at 260
160 its closer to buy order prices ~140 https://marketplace.tf/items/539;5;u38/Cloudy%20Moon%20El%20Jefe.
160 is clearly quicksold.
No, keys are at 2.65 on the site. You can't buy the keys from the site, but that's what they're valued at. 232 each.
160 =/= 140, it doesn't matter if it's 'close to buy orders'. Sales happened, and thus that's what you take.
Yes, I know the sale is 250, but without the buyout it is even higher.
Two on tradeit are 232 keys
unsold for year at 300
unsold for day or two at 250
clean unsold for ten days at 260
All of these show that a 293 sale that conveniently caps at 250 is very high.
Regardless of whether 160 is 'close to buyers', two sales happened at 160. It's fairly clear that 160 is closer to its real price.
It being 293 and b/o capped supports further tha its an outlier. The tc sale is nearlybulk/is bulk and goes outdated in 2 days. The law sale is also one of the many there are, such as ones here: https://backpack.tf/item/3008918600 Tradeit.gg has their own site based key prices, they dont use cash or scm rates, and if i can pay 232 pure and get one then they are obviously selling for 232 pure. 160 might be sorta close to buyers at 140, but wheres any proof it sold fast. if you wanna call it a quicksell show some proof, like j58 has. As of now theres little to no proof that shows that the b/o capped 260 sale should be considered reasonable
Ive been offered one for ~190 mixed, supports 250 being really high