Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by seVen
~$0.04
Unique Refined Metal
922 votes up
86 votes down
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Refined Metal

"Probably the last time we're gonna raise ref" he said.


New price: 0.04$


Proof:


Marketplace.tf key sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://imgur.com/a/cX8uBM9


Most common sell prices in the last 3 days are 1.82$ - 1.84$.

After removing fees we're left with:

1.82$*0.9 = ~1.64$

1.84$*0.9 = ~1.66$


Marketplace.tf ref sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

https://imgur.com/a/i4NCuxQ


Sales median is currently at 0.04$, however demand has increased a lot and sales at 0.05$ are becoming more and more common.


PayPal Key Sales

Seller #1:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/72143-buying-keys-172-paypal/?tab=comments#comment-626458

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198023051867

Bought 330 keys for 1.72$ each.


Seller #2:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/47308-300-rep-rockets-key-buying-thread-170/?tab=comments#comment-497670

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198049171595

Bought 19 keys for 1.70$ each.


Seller #3:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/62003-keys-for-172-and-backpacks-via-paypal-tons-of-rep-trusted-trader/?tab=comments#comment-584858

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040898430

Bought 225 keys for 1.72$ each.


Seller #4:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69912-selling-keys-for-166-per-key-got-a-big-stock/?tab=comments#comment-617696

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198139171368

Sold 20 keys for 1.70$ each.

_________________________________________________________


SUMMARY


Key sales:

1.64$

1.66$

1.70$

1.72$

_________________________________________________________


Keyprice in ref is 43.88 - 44.11 ref.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d5db12c6780727a264d42b1


Convert that into the price per ref:

1.64$ / 44 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.66$ / 44 ref = ~0.038 $/ref

1.70$ / 44 ref = ~0.039 $/ref

1.72$ / 44 ref = ~0.039 $/ref


Mp.tf key sales with fees included would be:

1.82$ / 44 ref = ~0.041 $/ref

1.84$ / 44 ref = ~0.042 $/ref


Mp.tf ref sales:

0.04 $/ref


Pretty clear actually.


Going with 0.04$.


Feel free to add proof to support or counter my new price.

    I'm fairly new to this, but based on the activity on Marketplace.tf today, 0.04-0.05 seems more accurate now.

      If marketplace.tf sales settle at a stable 0.05$, a range of 0.04 - 0.05 would be appropriate, but as of the day i posted this suggestion and in fact still today, 0.04 flat has way more going for it.

      August 24, 1558 refined metals were sold at 0.05$ on the marketplace.

        0.04$ is still more common.

        I don't think a range of 0.04 - 0.05 is justifiable quite yet.

          And now there aren't any sellers on marketplace at 0.04. They're mostly .05 with a few .06 and .07.

            Having checked now, it looks like the first ten pages or so of marketplace are at .04 and the rest are at .05, so it might be a good idea to close this and either resuggest at .04-.05 or wait a little while to see how it goes.

              What's happening now is that someone will deposit a lot of 0.04 ref which will sell immediately. The 0.04 buy orders are at 1.5k now and the 0.03 buy orders are dropping as well. I really think a 0.04-0.05 is more realistic at this point (maybe even 0.05 flat? probably not).

          A few scrap difference won't change the range here.

          Well 180/44 = ~4,1

          well upvote


          I am still suprised why ref increases in value, just like that...

            I'm not very knowledgeable on the subject, so excuse me if my information is wrong, but I believe that since Valve allowed for refunds on the unusual prices, people are just deciding to get keys with the money they got back, and the demand for keys dropped dramatically. Thanks to this, now ref is more valuable because keys are literally plummeting. They dropped at least 5 ref in the past week, or week and a half.

              Key sales for cash are not dropping, so it's nothing to do with that.

            Buy orders at $0.04 on Marketplace are starting to form a bit of a pile, was at just a couple hundred about a few hours ago but is now up to ~580. Main thing to watch for will be whether or not the currently huge pile of $0.03 buy orders starts to pull back and reposition.

              Bit of a bigger pile now, up to ~2250 orders, with a slight pullback on the $0.03 orders down from 19,000 to ~18,850. Still early, but if it persists a resuggest might need to be in order with either a $0.04-$0.05 range, or $0.05 if lack of $0.04 sales really becomes apparent.

                As far as i know we can't suggest ref without keysales converted into ref. So we're not gonna run out of proof for 0.04$ unless key - cash sales skyrocket or key - ref sales drop hard again.

                I see 0.04-0.05 as realistic, but we need to wait a bit longer.

                  Agreeing with seVen here. SORRY FOR THIS EXPLANATION BEING SO LONG

                  Constituting a ref price change on ref sales only, is pulling it out of context.

                  Gonna pull alot of numbers from marketplace.tf, but it will explain what I'm trying to tell here.


                  Just taking the (full) days after the suggestion (so not the 26th, when this was written) :

                  Buy orders for ref do still apply, but they need to be seen in context.

                  Pure ref sales only constitute a VERY small portion of "ref sales", since key sales, which are converted in the current ref price, need to be included to price ref. #RefAndKeyPricesAreLinked

                  Not including converted key sales, because those are done already in the main suggestion, whereas the median and/or average is very close to the same now.


                  Marketplace.tf sales :

                  21st of August

                  11996 ref, median $0.04

                  6358 keys, median $1.82 =~ 279752 ref

                  ACTUAL REF SALE PERCENTAGE : 4.1118%


                  22nd of August

                  10114 ref, median $0.04

                  6893 keys, median $1.83 =~ 303292 ref

                  ACTUAL REF SALE PERCENTAGE : 3.2271%


                  23rd of August

                  10379 ref, median $0.04

                  6960 keys, median $1.82 =~ 306240 ref

                  ACTUAL REF SALE PERCENTAGE : 3.2781%


                  24th of August

                  9022 ref, median $0.04

                  6941 keys, median $1.82 =~ 305404 ref

                  ACTUAL REF SALE PERCENTAGE : 2.8694%


                  25th of August

                  7053 ref, median $0.04

                  6937 keys, median $1.82 =~ 305228 ref

                  ACTUAL REF SALE PERCENTAGE : 2.2585%


                  It sounds like a lot of hassle to get a point across, but ref sales on their own, still don't constitute a proper price change to $0.04 - $0.05, because the majority of the sales still happen to be $0.04 e.g. :

                  21st

                  Price Volume

                  $0.03 174

                  $0.04 10972

                  $0.05 850

                  TOTAL 11996

                  91.46% $0.04


                  22nd

                  Price Volume

                  $0.01 10

                  $0.03 274

                  $0.04 8352

                  $0.05 1478

                  TOTAL 10114

                  82.57% $0.04


                  23rd

                  Price Volume

                  $0.03 302

                  $0.04 6770

                  $0.05 3307

                  TOTAL 10379

                  65.23% $0.04


                  24th

                  Price Volume

                  $0.03 143

                  $0.04 6643

                  $0.05 2236

                  TOTAL 9022

                  73.63% $0.04


                  25th

                  Price Volume

                  $0.04 4182

                  $0.05 2871

                  TOTAL 7053

                  59.29% $0.04


                  I get why some people say it should only be linked to ref, but since both are a currency, they're linked, but also dependent on eachother (well, ref price is dependent on the key price, due to fluctuating prices of keys IN refined), therefore, keys are to be included in my opinion.

              Very few sales at 0.03 now with today's amount of sales at 0.03 being ~145 with sales at 0.04 being ~6.3k and sales at 0.05 being ~2.1k. As of the 24th @ 7:30 pm EST.

              Edit: a guy listed a bunch at 0.04 and they sold almost instantly almost half an hour after I looked at sales.

                When I made my last comment there were just over 200 buy orders at 0.04 but now there are ~2.1k. This will most likely need a resuggestion at 0.04-0.05 if it keeps up. If not 0.05

                  We'd probably have to see if this continues to stay at 0.05 on marketplace for a few more days to suggest a flat 0.05 price

                    Well it would be better at 0.04-0.05 if it keeps up rather than 0.05 even

                Looking at the market place, Refined should be raised to 0.05! It is slowly gaining price. :)

                        Definitely 0.04 right now. Didn't think I would ever see the ref going up in price ever again.

                        Upvote

                          i think it can be fair to say that 0.04-0.05 is fair based on other calculations, so i am on board with closing this and making a new suggestion