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~47.39 ref
Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
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  • 45.88 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7394672837 2548905384
  • 50 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7605712382 7170335878
  • 45.33 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7596723798 7064821540
  • 46 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7640885555 6076092306
  • 47 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7645312697 7367245804
  • 100 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7630081783 4800681383
  • 52 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7633043292 3243462856
  • 45.55 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7647505116 7079536346
  • 45.55 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7647505047 7341236584
  • 45.55 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 7647505296 7083053901
  • 43 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 38.88 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 40 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 39 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 45 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 45 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 40 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 42 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 45.22 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 44.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
$2.34
45,345 sold recently

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Woah, these are in a desperate need of an update. When Valve doesn't release updates for the game for 61 days, make your own?


backpack.tf's Classifieds

If you have keys you're wanting to get rid of, the name of the game at this point in time is a very clear message: 45.55 refined. But even if you're looking to obtain some keys, you're not far behind at 45.44 refined. Given that this would be a new high water mark for the market, there are plenty of speculative positions that are aiming even higher, but as you might expect, nothing's happening with those.


Buyer Supplies

Now that we're back in a bull market, back to buyer supplies first. Buy low, sell high, and keep the goods moving. Too bad that The Liquidator isn't on Canadian TV anymore, it's actually a really funny show. Oh, wait, I already said that the last time, oops. Margins aren't as wide as the last time however, they're back down to a single scrap.

Listing #1 at 45.44 refined: https://i.imgur.com/VVotLWr.png - has no keys (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306879771?time=1553385600).

Listing #2 at 45.44 refined: https://i.imgur.com/2UmylnU.png - has 8 keys.

Listing #3 at 45.44 refined: https://i.mgur.com/CEx0jrX.png - has no keys. However, yesterday, it did have 12 keys which were all scooped up at some point (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346917129#!/compare/1553299200/1553385600), but it appears to be having trouble getting fresh supply for 45.44.

Listing #4 at 45.44 refined: https://i.imgur.com/G0A8b8r.png - has 1 key, and a low cap of 3 keys.


Anything lower than 45.44 refined is seeing no activity, with only a small handful of 45.33 refined listings before a sharp dropoff to even lower listings that are even further behind at 45 refined: https://i.imgur.com/pPz5cNZ.png


Seller Supplies

The margin this time is a single scrap, which is more what we're used to. No sense in trading if there's no margin at all, after all.

Listing #1 at 45.55 refined: https://i.imgur.com/R8kVeuY.png - has 6 keys (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198833325235?time=1553385600).

Listing #2 at 45.55 refined: https://imgur.com/sYYBcdh.png - has 8 keys, same profile as 45.44 listing #2. Keys appear to have come and gone as part of separate transactions (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355313935#!/compare/1553299200/1553385600), but still winds up with 8 keys ever since 8 keys appeared in inventory yesterday.

Listing #3 at 45.55 refined: https://i.imgur.com/rnTIyVM.png - has 1 key, same profile as 45.44 listing #4. It had its cap of 3 keys yesterday, but appears to be selling more than it is buying: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198387435236#!/compare/1553299200/1553385600

Listing #4 at 45.55 refined: https://i.imgur.com/5BF3zmq.png - has 1 key. Key was recently obtained yesterday: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055050034#!/compare/1553299200/1553385600


But why not make 45.66 refined the high value?

While it may possibly be a good idea to do so to account for micro-wobbles to avoid the suggestion getting shot to hell if the market wobbles a single scrap upwards, the reality is that there is only a single speculative sell position that's at 45.66 refined which is next to literal pages of 45.55 refined listings, and that listing happens to be by a human. Everything else is way above it at 45.88 refined or higher, as you'll see below:

Speculative position #1 at 45.66 refined, by a human with a single key: https://i.imgur.com/SjZAnz7.png / https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063995514?time=1553385600

Speculative position #2 at 45.88 refined, also by a human but with a LOT (as in 151) of them: https://i.imgur.com/T6DrPI7.png (as well, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995059584#!/compare/1553299200/1553385600 demonstrates no activity for the better part of 3/23 and already half of 3/24 on them)

Speculative position #3 at 46 refined, by a bot with a single key that it obtained very recently: https://i.imgur.com/7po6EtW.png / https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286992703#!/compare/1553299200/1553385600

Speculative position #4 at 46 refined, by a bot with 5 keys that only had 3 keys just a few days ago: https://i.imgur.com/oYp18Tb.png / https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066177396#!/compare/1553212800/1553385600

Speculative position #5 at 46.11 refined, by a Love Live!-themed bot also with 5 keys, which has had obvious difficulty getting rid of them for that price for almost 10 days: https://i.imgur.com/dLmJTkp.png / https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198828925225#!/compare/1552608000/1553385600


It's clear that anyone right now that's running ahead of market is running WAY ahead instead of just a single step ahead like you would usually expect, so there isn't much sense in including 45.66 just to be safe given that there are literal pages of sell listings at 45.55 refined right now, it'll take a while to get through all those.


In any case, and looking forward...

There are multiple pages of both 45.55 refined sell listings as well as multiple pages of 45.44 refined buy listings, so a stable plateau is being formed around that range before the market's next move occurs, and it'll likely be at least several days before that next move does start to take shape.


Websites

ScrapTF: as usual, is running well behind of the market whenever there's an upward trend and is buying at 44.33 refined and selling for 44.66 refined. Also as usual, supply is bone dry save for the odd person that doesn't look at the rest of the market. You already know what I'm going to say: the market has already moved on to greener pastures.

STN-Trading: a familiar wide range and margin, currently buying for 45.55 refined and then selling for 46.22 refined (though it's not as wide as that one time it was 1 refined wide around 3 months back). If you're new to key suggestions and are thinking about making your own in the future based on this template (which someone already did several months ago with great success), here are some words of wisdom: STN deliberately runs ahead of market to maintain supplies and to protect against small wobbles upwards and downwards. At time of submission, approximately 110 keys were available (https://i.imgur.com/0kO6KtU.png), with a further 10 keys having come in since that screenshot was made. Unless/until the market inches closer towards 46 refined, expect supplies to continue to grow. Also, it's spring now, so I doubt it's snowing anywhere else other than Alaska at this point (but even then apparently Alaska's been pretty toasty versus normal).

Marketplace.tf (to USD): since acceptance of the current price (March 3rd), valuation has remained relatively unchanged and median sale prices have largely remained relatively steady in the ~$1.79-$1.81 range, and the same fact has held true since the start of February with only two very brief wobbles downwards to $1.78 which then went back into that range the following day, suggesting a further devaluation of Refined Metal, if ever so slight (as MPTF's median has held at $0.04 for months, I wonder if additional decimal values to allow for things like $0.0375 will need to be explored).


I hope you like my market analysis as much as I liked making it.

    Made a post to raise keys a couple days ago. Really am liking this!

    Breaking update: Lex just informed me that STN slightly raised their buy price to 45.66 refined. And Norway still has snow (always).

      Price keeps rising and bots keep buying for higher a little everyday

        You're not wrong, that's the trend that's been happening for quite a while now, even more so now after TF2 Outpost got set on fire by ZAM and Bazaar.tf was thinking about it but then changed their mind. The real question is how far it can go. There have been the occasional burps here and there with brief bear markets but it's mostly inflation.

      Less-breaking-but-you-could-call-it-a-breaking-update: ScrapTF has shifted its key ranges to buying for 45 refined and selling for 45.33 refined. No supplies still as it's still a bit behind market, but less severely than it was earlier today.