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~173.5 keys
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Unusual Woolen Warmer Burning Flames
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Time to do something about the size of that range.

EDIT: Ah shit I got submitted and accepted dates mixed up.


SALES:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998290686#!/compare/1494806400/1494892800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989136498#!/compare/1494806400/1494892800

Sold for Hearts KE (395)


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119013032#!/compare/1494460800/1494547200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234128068#!/compare/1494460800/1494547200

Two sales here:

Sold + 90 keys for Frostbite Polar Pullover (390) = 300

And quicksold for 176 pure.


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119507505#!/compare/1491868800/1492041600

Used to update the HWNN


https://marketplace.tf/items/30833;5;u13

Sold for $299

= ~150


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131994315#!/compare/1493424000/1493510400

Bulk


Rounding high-end. Was honestly expecting a drop but there you go.

Let it ride.

    Two more sales here:


    Sold with ~10 in sweets for AF muffs

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074192315#!/compare/1497830400/1497916800

    Iffy because the buyout belonging to that sale (Or rather, my previous buyout) was the low end in the muffs suggestion. Should back up the low end here though


    Sold for misty lucky + duped beams hallmark + duped burning fro + duped af halogen + max, undoubtedly capping at my BO of 350

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29237210

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074192315#!/compare/1498262400/1498348800


    I figured all were traded on mptf before, which also covers the only misty lucky sale, but I could not find it on mptf:

    https://marketplace.tf/items/701;5;u44/Knifestorm%20Lucky%20Shot

    it thus has no possible mini, but all hats combined yield a deficit of ~100 keys, so I'm fairly sure it will cap. That supports your middle value here


    The tricky part here is going to be that frostbite pullover suggestion which rendered this an outlier, though I am not so sure it should. Given the relative abundance of data points here, it is much more suited to use that in the pullover suggestion. I'll keep an eye on this and the pullover; for now, this may very well end up being close enough

      new sales:

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027338258#!/compare/1498694400/1498780800 - sold for duped Frostbite Team Captain


      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338556449#!/compare/1498521600/1498694400

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027338258#!/compare/1498521600/1498694400 - sold for Sunbeams Killer's Kabuto + Sulphurous Dr's Dapper Topper


      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050745352#!/compare/1498608000/1498694400 - sold for Darkblaze Nunhood + Disco Beat Down Buccaneer's Bicorne


      should all fall in roughly into the range, so this should be good

        Well, all of them are around the low end except for the TC one, and that has no valid minis. With 3 sellers at or below 350 (two of which are over a month old; tN is a relister), and all those sales suppoting the low end, I strongly think that 400 is an outlier here.


        I guess 300-350 could work (using my sale as the high end here). The dapper\/buto sale is actually even lower, but that could be the low outlier counterpart. As for my sale; the only questionable part of the sale has been resold and updated, so the sale definitely caps.