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Updating from my previous suggestion
Sale stats #1
Sale stats #2
Sold
Past 7 days
1 @ 7 keys 57 ref
1 @ 8 keys 50 ref
1 @ 9 keys
2 @ 8 keys 57 ref
1 @ 10 keys
1 @ 9 keys 56 ref
4 @ 11 keys
1 @ 14 keys
More sales at 10 and 11 Keys on Sale stats #2 provided by Shuffle Spy
Past 30 days
1 @ 7 keys 57 ref
1 @ 8 keys 50 ref
1 @ 9 keys
2 @ 8 keys 57 ref
1 @ 10 keys
1 @ 9 keys 56 ref
9 @ 11 keys
1 @ 14 keys
Bought
Past 7 days
1 @ 9 keys 45 ref
Past 30 days
1 @ 9 keys 45 ref
Many sales at 9.75 Keys(9 Keys 45 ref) to 11 Keys range here
Sales at the steam market - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Luxury%20Lounge%20Unusualifier
Many sales at $17.74 - $19.46, avg. $18.6 rounding to $18.6/$2.12 = 8.77 Keys, rounding to the nearest 0.5 Keys i.e 8.5 Keys
New sales from 7.5 ($15.90 / 2.08 in December) to 9.5 Keys ($19.84 / 2.14 in November)
Sales at the marketplace - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/9258;5;uncraftable;td-30922
Ignoring $36 sales as they were during the event plus it equals $36/$1.87 = 19 Keys so yeah, I'm ignoring it
Recent sales and current sellers at $19.99 so $19.99/$1.87= 10.68 Keys, rounding to 10.7 Keys
Many sales at
8.8 Keys
9.75 Keys
10.7 Keys
11 Keys
Given there have been sellers below 11 that haven't sold in over a month, it'd be better to take 10 Keys as the high end so I'm taking the 7.5 - 10 Keys range here. Thanks to Shuffle Spy for more sales and an updated range.