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pumpkin moon
Unusual Twisted Topper Pumpkin Moon
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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

$284.99 / $1.87 = 152.40 keys


https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Twisted%20Topper&at=2021-11-09T04:25:59.803Z

3 sales at 150 keys, 1 at 176 keys

5 buys at 120, 127, 127, 142, 143


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1636070400/1636156800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044163886#!/compare/1636070400/1636156800

130 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009309781#!/compare/1635984000/1636070400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040073503#!/compare/1635984000/1636070400

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1635984000/1636070400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197980491139#!/compare/1632009600/1636156800

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061851006#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

122 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072932607#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080004660#!/compare/1635724800/1635811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635724800/1635811200

127 keys 2 ref, this is one of the gladiator buys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635724800/1635811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141754321#!/compare/1630108800/1635897600

76 keys, Miami Nights Officer's Ushanka (Chromatic), Spellbound Aspect Taunt: Flippin' Awesome

The histories look a bit weird, but the sale went through the bot's owner (so near ID doesnt match) and the keys were placed on bot and the items kept on the owner

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635811200/1635897600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050726553#!/compare/1635552000/1635897600

This specific Ushanka (spelled) sold for 50 keys

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6189fa062872f20f9f546dbf Flippin Awesome updating to 35 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6182b21281f6d3ad0ecffc31 200 key buyout, sold same time as 149 key seller

Sale = 161 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044503115#!/compare/1635984000/1636070400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091986289#!/compare/1634947200/1636070400

144 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132508765#!/compare/1634515200/1635465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055836483#!/compare/1634342400/1634688000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081242634#!/compare/1635552000/1635811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1635638400/1635811200

127 keys, this is one of the gladiator buys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1635811200/1635984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123146104#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

139 keys leaving the 2nd compare and the two strange cosmetics in 2nd compare were sold for this

This is one of the 150 key gladiator sales


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198440779667#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000889832#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000889832#!/compare/1634774400/1634860800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083415313#!/compare/1634774400/1634860800

Only 39 keys matches, at least 150 keys leave the 2nd compare


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083415313#!/compare/1635379200/1635638400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074545709#!/compare/1635638400/1635724800

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012588653#!/compare/1634428800/1634688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035664616#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

It's the 102 item stack (~59 keys), the items come from the buyer's bot

Looks low, likely buy order or missing stuff


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199200410538#!/compare/1633910400/1633996800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072465094#!/compare/1633478400/1633996800

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040141126#!/compare/1634083200/1634774400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014114974#!/compare/1624924800/1634601600

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032078030#!/compare/1634688000/1634774400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286463333#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

212 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072930863#!/compare/1633996800/1634083200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998850076#!/compare/1633996800/1634083200

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039582979#!/compare/1634860800/1635638400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210619136#!/compare/1635292800/1635552000

Gift


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817548888#!/compare/1633996800/1634428800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083415313#!/compare/1633910400/1633996800

107 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083415313#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405542961#!/compare/1634428800/1634688000

182 keys and various unusual taunts

Had 239 key buyout at the time https://gladiator.tf/listings/616dd5b9f379e61e168ef032


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017114970#!/compare/1633910400/1633996800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844734296#!/compare/1633910400/1633996800

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844734296#!/compare/1634601600/1635465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413561667#!/compare/1635206400/1635465600

Bulk


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413561667#!/compare/1635206400/1635465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1635292800/1635465600

156 keys, same day as sale above


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043082159#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176734455#!/compare/1635984000/1636156800

135 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044196677#!/compare/1635033600/1635552000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635033600/1635120000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635724800/1635811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960779304#!/compare/1635811200/1635897600

150 keys leaving the 2nd compare


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106316179#!/compare/1634947200/1635033600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054642670#!/compare/1634947200/1635033600

Blizzardy Storm Killer Exclusive

Green Confetti Crone's Dome

Toxic Terrors Taunt: The Victory Lap

Not gonna mini because I'm evil but this topper also has an abundance of sales regardless

But this is about 137 keys in buyers


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054642670#!/compare/1634947200/1635033600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097065870#!/compare/1634860800/1635033600

Disco Beat Down Killer Exclusive

Pumpkin Moon Brain-Warming Wear

Magic Shuffle Taunt: Panzer Pants

And ~8 keys mixed

DBD KE has 118 key buyers, and the BWW has sales from 47-70 in buyers/MP

So this sale is 180+


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097065870#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198333437182#!/compare/1635206400/1635379200

Pumpkin Moon Optic Nerve

Tempered Thorns Hat Outta Hell


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878286509#!/compare/1634083200/1634774400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083415313#!/compare/1634256000/1634428800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271724167#!/compare/1634256000/1634688000

I don't know what's happening

it looks like 1st to 2nd compare is 170 keys

but those 170 keys match histories like its 2nd to 3rd compare

i'll just call one of these 170 keys and other untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864285626#!/compare/1633564800/1633651200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063142096#!/compare/1631577600/1635120000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080459823#!/compare/1633651200/1633824000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196385302#!/compare/1633824000/1634169600

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035582739#!/compare/1633996800/1634083200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970262340#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600

unusuals leaving the 2nd compare, burning bumble beanie and taunts


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040275111#!/compare/1635897600/1635984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1635811200/1635984000

56 keys matches, this is one of the gladiator buys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1636070400/1636243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115443579#!/compare/1636156800/1636329600

150 keys, this is one of the gladiator sales


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993520212#!/compare/1635206400/1635292800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635206400/1635292800

143 keys and 15 ref, this is one of the gladiator buys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1635379200/1635465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119601623#!/compare/1635379200/1635638400

122 keys matches, unknown what else was involved


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171032862#!/compare/1633478400/1633564800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994922173#!/compare/1633478400/1633824000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204028017#!/compare/1632873600/1633478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044566583#!/compare/1633392000/1633651200

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044566583#!/compare/1634169600/1634342400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600

Anti-Freeze Attendant, then the Attendant got sold to a bot later on anyway


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199090015543#!/compare/1633478400/1633564800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071504484#!/compare/1633305600/1633564800

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343291394#!/compare/1634428800/1634515200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198992129#!/compare/1634515200/1634688000

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092728134#!/compare/1633478400/1633996800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043799114#!/compare/1630886400/1636329600

Untraceable


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192661585#!/compare/1635379200/1635465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044163886#!/compare/1624320000/1635724800

176 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996403345#!/compare/1635379200/1635465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072439676#!/compare/1635379200/1635465600

156 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072439676#!/compare/1635638400/1636156800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002391950#!/compare/1636070400/1636156800

Added 150 for Pumpkin Moon Trucker's Topper, better used there


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002391950#!/compare/1636156800/1636243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031748642#!/compare/1636156800/1636243200

Amaranthine Brain Bucket + Hot Spirit of Halloween Rocket Launcher Factory New)


Sales:

107

120

122

127

127

127

127

130

135

137

142

143

144

150

150

150

150

150

152

156

156

161

170

176

176

180

182

212


https://gyazo.com/8a6ae341492d4815de25362f309eebd9

Buyers to 117


https://gyazo.com/57e636a8dd62604047dc1a4525c9c4b1

Young, but sellers at 149-151


120-150 covers more than half of the data points

gladiator sales did go up to 176, but is already outweighted by 3 sales at 150 close to or after it

152 and 156 are so close to 150 anyway and there's a few lower sellers


Going with 120-150 keys

    more


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069133216#!/compare/1637193600/1637280000

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1637193600/1637280000

    untraceable


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1637280000/1637366400

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074118996#!/compare/1635811200/1637366400

    118 keys matches, this is most likely the 155 key gladiator sale and then the keys were used to buy the 2 unusuals at the top of the seller's compare

    https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Twisted%20Topper&at=2021-11-26T16:02:31.339Z

    https://gladiator.tf/listings/6197894bb04d674925d4fe3b


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1636848000/1636934400

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182234714#!/compare/1636934400/1637020800

    Strange Kaleidoscope Sophisticated Smoker - 166 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6125b74b28eaa84a1e1655c0

    Tempered Thorns Beanie The All-Gnawing

    Spectral Shackles Taunt: Mannrobics

    Spectral Shackles Taunt: Surgeon's Squeezebox

    Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Flame Thrower

    170 key buyout https://gladiator.tf/listings/6190824fdc7d8557b0ec0330

    Very high outlier, it caps with the smoker and buyers on anything else and then there's another like 60 keys minimum


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1636329600/1636416000

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043501673#!/compare/1635724800/1636416000

    many items

    this whole 21 item stack https://gyazo.com/03b37cdd107ddab315b2218b9315783e


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1636416000/1636502400

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133991629#!/compare/1636329600/1636502400

    untraceable, it doesn't seem to be either of the 150 key stacks or in the 650


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286463333#!/compare/1637107200/1637193600

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275853629#!/compare/1637020800/1637452800

    140 keys


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405542961#!/compare/1636675200/1636934400

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069014271#!/compare/1636848000/1636934400

    Anti-Freeze Ol' Snaggletooth, double spelled

    better used on that


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069014271#!/compare/1636934400/1637020800

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176734455#!/compare/1636675200/1637020800

    130 keys


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198333437182#!/compare/1636934400/1637020800

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419110481#!/compare/1636848000/1637020800

    166 keys


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419110481#!/compare/1637020800/1637107200

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402009056#!/compare/1636675200/1637020800

    Untraceable


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043501673#!/compare/1636848000/1636934400

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043914746#!/compare/1636848000/1636934400

    Untraceable


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043914746#!/compare/1636934400/1637020800

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006295346#!/compare/1636934400/1637020800

    148 keys


    https://gyazo.com/e95b5ee44cf6b67f51491d639eed36ba

    Sellers at 150 to 199

    Buyers 111 to 116


    166 still looks high compared to everything else