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Treerible suggestion.
Sales 1,2,3,4: sold on marketplace for $21.99 each https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31181;5;u170
Two at 21.99/1.81 = 12.14k, two at 21.99 / 1.84 = 11.95k, rounds to 12 keys for all 4.
Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/9546032512
Sale 5: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133991629#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/10133475423
Sale 6: 11 keys https://gyazo.com/0cc7e5976eb7e885183ec22d5844c753
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195734346#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
This was a buy order dump https://gladiator.tf/listings/615b070ff3f3370cf97b55cf
Sale 7: Ascension Taunt: Square Dance
Square dance has buyers above 11 keys, but the tree was dumped to lemon for 11 so I’ll ignore this
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199023397025#!/compare/1632873600/1633305600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993631639#!/compare/1633305600/1633392000
Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/10051723342
This is the sept. 7 marketplace sale I think?
Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/9814486643
Sale 8: 11 keys https://gyazo.com/33d59c0c3af8e4aeff2bbfaeb359e5ac
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195734346#!/compare/1633046400/1633132800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054825186#!/compare/1633046400/1633132800
Buy order dump https://gladiator.tf/listings/615766023039080acd911a2f
Sale 9: $22.11 on mannco https://mannco.store/item/440-blighted-snowstorm-unusual-killing-tree
22.11/1.67 = 13.2, rounding to 13 keys
Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/9554425497
Sale 10: sold alongside 20 keys for a C9 merryweather, better used there
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022041905#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195734346#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000
Sale 11: 11 keys https://gyazo.com/7bc1d640022ff4085e551ef17c62c47e
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195734346#!/compare/1632873600/1632960000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172035674#!/compare/1632873600/1633046400
Buy order dump https://gladiator.tf/listings/61543191bcbe9873bded82c5
Sale 12: Untrace (items left users BPs too fast)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172035674#!/compare/1632441600/1632528000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218791111#!/compare/1632355200/1632528000
Ignoring the trades to and from the tradebanned account
Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/10032691640
Sale 13: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1632355200/1632441600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886721309#!/compare/1632355200/1632441600
Sale 14: Appears to have been raffled off by the person who bought it from MP
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886721309#!/compare/1628380800/1632268800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135381128#!/compare/1632268800/1633392000
Then we have our sept.21 marketplace sale from above
Sale 15: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026129220#!/compare/1628726400/1628812800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1628726400/1628812800
Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/9556900566
Sale 16: 9 keys 9 ref? Excluding as below buyorders, even scrapyard’s own buy order at the time https://gladiator.tf/listings/6154f8b05b532bb2360d2737
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1632873600/1632960000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150817970#!/compare/1632700800/1632960000
Ignoring the two intermediate trades on sept 30 because they look to be gambling
Sale 17: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097640992#!/compare/1629504000/1632700800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251888442#!/compare/1630713600/1632787200
Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/10430929516
This is the terrible one
Sale 18: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107821525#!/compare/1633478400/1633564800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1633564800/1633651200
Sale 19: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013583817#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Sale 20: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013583817#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061353482#!/compare/1633305600/1633392000
Sale 21: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061353482#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134344838#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Sale 22: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134344838#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065768483#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Sale 23: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065768483#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063478666#!/compare/1633219200/1633305600
Sale 24: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063478666#!/compare/1633046400/1633132800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1632960000/1633046400
Sale 25: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1630886400/1630972800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142115831#!/compare/1630886400/1631318400
Sale 26: Nuts & Bolts cotton head (16)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142115831#!/compare/1630713600/1630886400
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1630800000/1630886400
Buyout was 15 https://gladiator.tf/listings/61358b9780edc1fc7e9622e3
Caps at 15
Sale 27: Bulk for c9 Noble, better used there
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1630713600/1630800000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082066792#!/compare/1630800000/1630886400
Next sale is our Aug 29 mp sale
Sale 28: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132665029#!/compare/1629072000/1629158400
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991692581#!/compare/1628640000/1629504000
Total sales at 9, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 15.
All 11’s are buy orders, but 3 sales and 11 is above current buy orders.
Excluding 9 because it is low and 15 because it is high. Taking 11-13.