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upd.
1.bulk for b.flames Le Party Phantom
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1614470400/1614556800
2.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056681334#!/compare/1614556800/1614643200
3.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326511775#!/compare/1614556800/1614902400
4.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1614643200/1614816000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188253013#!/compare/1613606400/1616630400
5.40k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002672790#!/compare/1615852800/1615939200
6.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091233640#!/compare/1620000000/1620086400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093497991#!/compare/1620000000/1620086400
7.sold for Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Sniper Rifle (buy order 58k )
https://backpack.tf/stats/Strange/Australium%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Sniper%20Rifle/Tradable/Craftable
and
https://gladiator.tf/listings/609ad28bd65fa6522a442a21
sellers and buyer 58k
the festivizer doesnt add much
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093497991#!/compare/1620086400/1620604800
8.45k
https://imgur.com/a/WSAnUoy - proofs
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
1 sale on mp.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31010;5;u116 for 96$
key price = 2.15$
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
// 96 / 2.15 = 45k
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
no other actual sales.
total = 40-58 reason.
Sale 2:
Strange Professional Killstreak Shot in the Dark Sniper Rifle (Factory New)
This matches
Sale 3:
Dump to known qbuy
Sale 4:
Was the marketplace sale
Evidence here - https://prnt.sc/12vp1vz
Sale 5:
Histories match, id didn't
40k
Sale 6:
Idk, 27 keys 4 ref leave buyers inventory but histories do not match
https://gladiator.tf/listings/608f8b6ee49a56841238ec1b - but buy orders were dead too apparently
Sale 7 is actually untrace:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093497991#!/compare/1620691200/1620777600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198833785210#!/compare/1617062400/1620777600
I don't know what happened here
Sale you missed here:
https://mannco.store/item/13479
Feb 21st - $69.95 / $1.90 = 36.82 keys
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?site=marketplace.tf&at=2021-03-27&price=95.99
Marketplace sale:
$95.99 / $2.14 = 44.86 keys
Sales are now at:
40, 45, 37, 45
Buyers are really all over the place, considering there is only one buyer at 40 keys
The full range of 37 - 45 keys feels rather justified.
Alternatively 40 - 45 also works quite well. Ranging with pure sales and using the mp sale as support for the higher end of the range.
The mannco sale is about a week from going out of date so perhaps 40 - 45 keys will work better.
Best to ask a mod about that. Not sure when a mod will get around to commenting.
Congrats on the purchase :D
Note:
Item I think you missed:
https://backpack.tf/item/7259109048
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1613606400/1613692800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217101891#!/compare/1613692800/1613779200
Bulk items
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217101891#!/compare/1613779200/1614038400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1613692800/1613779200
And tradeback
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1614038400/1614124800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002974658#!/compare/1614038400/1614124800
This is a rather old purchase of yours, untrace on my end
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002974658#!/compare/1614038400/1614124800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163266519#!/compare/1613088000/1614124800
5 keys match here
Depending on what you paid for the highway star on that older history, could be another reason to exclude 37 keys.