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~176.5 keys
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Unusual Coldsnap Cap Scorching Flames
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Mini for SF Mancer's


Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9376163493

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798937656#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989725105#!/compare/1603670400/1603929600

Sold for 108 keys


Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9129157723

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204410668#!/compare/1606867200/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057068416#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

Untrace


Sale 3

Excluding sales to and from tradeit


Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9023106691

Sale 4

Excluding sales to and from scammers


Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164364636#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800776268#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

Untrace


Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800776268#!/compare/1606694400/1606780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1606608000/1606780800

Untrace


Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053070636#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

Sold for:

Sunbeams Dragonborn Helmet - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fcbd8ca4974b615f242f593 - 81.5 keys

Blizzardy Storm Law - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fe4ddacf02b04789e7f9a55 - 41 keys

Frosted Star Taunt: The Victory Lap - https://pastebin.com/qwxfFWxg - no usable sales


81.5 + 41 = 122.5 keys w/o the Victory Lap


https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQG32O70 - buyout 175 keys


Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053070636#!/compare/1608336000/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

Bulk for SF Mancer's


Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/5315023051

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281759583#!/compare/1605398400/1605916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002186909#!/compare/1605312000/1605398400

Untrace


Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002186909#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1605312000/1605398400

Untrace


Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079387741#!/compare/1600128000/1606435200

Untrace


Going back 3 months


item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9129157723

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271577665#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198869124474#!/compare/1602720000/1602806400

Sold for:

Strange Festivized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y7J9XNW9 - buyers 41 keys for non ks non festivized at the time

Hot Star Crossed Degreaser (Field-Tested) - https://backpack.tf/stats/Decorated%20Weapon/Star%20Crossed%20%7C%20Degreaser%20(Field-Tested)/Tradable/Craftable/701 - buyers 25 keys

Cloud 9 Brain-Warming Wear - https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Brain-Warming%20Wear/Tradable/Craftable/58 - buyers 6.4 keys

Pyroland Nightmare Missing Piece- https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Missing%20Piece/Tradable/Craftable/159 - buyers 8 keys

Strange Snow Sleeves - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQG0VL5P - 1.3 keys

North Polar Fleece

84 keys


41 + 25 + 6.4 + 8 + 1.3 + 84 = 165.7 keys


https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLLV96NZ - buyout 158 keys


Capping at 158 keys here


Sales

108, 158


Taking 108 - 158 keys here, Sale 7 would likely fit in this range kinda


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091740704#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000

    https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ffe22cc7db8942bab7a7afe - sold with electrostatic fedora for cloudy trilby (trilby will need a mini)


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

    https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff0fbb753afb048b86fade6 - sold for Death at Dusk Swagman's Swatter + Searing Plasma Horrific Headsplitter (will need mini's)


    at a glance, both of these sales seem to suggest that 158 is a high here especially since it's a b/o cap as well which is much higher realistically since you're taking buyers for everything involved. might be best to exclude this sale and make a range using the other sales + the new ones i've mentioned.