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~19.5 keys
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Unusual Ye Olde Baker Boy Disco Beat Down
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Disco Beat Down Ye Olde Baker Boy

Mini for Clarivoyance Cranial Carcharodon


Resuggesting from https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f22ad47653c967c402264fc#comment-5f24e7e0ea475d6916266873

Thanks Xerg


Mptf sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/107;5;u62


May 19: 41.99/1.89 = 22.22 keys rounding to 22 keys.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5Z9QQJ7 - B/o of 21 keys caps sale.


Jun 25: 40/1.99 = 20.1 keys rounding to 20 keys.

No b/o found.


Jun 26: 40/2.03 = 19.7 keys rounding to 20 keys.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ0JNL20 - B/o of 20 keys.


No histories found.


Bot.tf sales

https://imgur.com/a/o2Cxmnd


1x sold at 16 keys 45 ref (~17 keys)

1x sold at 18 keys

1x sold at 18 keys 24 ref (~18 keys)

1x sold at 22 keys


1x bought at 17 keys 6 ref (~17 keys)

1x bought at 18 keys 17.66 ref (~18 keys)

1x bought at 18 keys 43.5 ref (~19 keys)


Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057473786#!/compare/1589932800/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1590710400/1590796800


Untrace, was sold to Killua


Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592179200/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135299063#!/compare/1592611200/1594080000


This sale corresponds with the 16 keys 45 ref bot.tf sale


Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080909224#!/compare/1589932800/1590105600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200


Sold to qs.store


Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000


Untrace


Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115160019#!/compare/1594080000/1595548800


Untrace, https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429R5QLQ - Rubi had a b/o of 18 keys 23 ref


Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7956664765

https://imgur.com/a/yjPrPHB


stn selling for 16 keys 48 ref


Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198851597200#!/compare/1589414400/1589500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278067898#!/compare/1589155200/1589500800


GFetti Dread Hiding Hood + 3 keys in adds

Unpriced, better used there


Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278067898#!/compare/1589155200/1589500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142110950#!/compare/1589414400/1589500800


Sold with 4 keys for Clarivoyance Carcharodon

Use there


Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142110950#!/compare/1589500800/1589587200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280667527#!/compare/1589414400/1589500800


Untrace


Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280667527#!/compare/1589414400/1589673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303464488#!/compare/1589414400/1589587200


The group of 17 keys 16 ref seems the most likely


Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303464488#!/compare/1589673600/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037815936#!/compare/1589673600/1589846400


Sold with 16 keys for AH Topper + AH Bomber's Bucket Hat

Bulky, wouldn't use this


Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037815936#!/compare/1589932800/1590278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062889114#!/compare/1589760000/1590364800


Flies Front Runner

Maybe use there, it's more outdated than this?


Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062889114#!/compare/1591228800/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966753371#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000


Stormy Sinner's Shade

Indate at 26.5

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3W3X80E - B/o of 20 keys caps sale


Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966753371#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126167104#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000


Neutron Coldsnap? Makes me think something else was involved otherwise this is high


Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126167104#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050655382#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000


untrace


Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050655382#!/compare/1591401600/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283528306#!/compare/1591315200/1591574400


Untrace


Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283528306#!/compare/1591488000/1591747200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400


qs to zol for some keys and refs


Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000


Untrace, private bp bought it and resold to bot maybe


Sales are at:

17

17

3x at 18 (bot.tf untracable)

19 (bot.tf untracable)

20

20

20

21

22 (bot.tf untracable)


Classies - https://imgur.com/a/DGH8NrR

Buyers up to 18.37 keys, excluding 18 and lower.

Young at 21, 10 months at 23 and 11 days at 25, excluding 22.

While 19 is a bot.tf untracable, it should be fine to exclude I guess, but if it pops up again I can resuggest


Extra info from Xerg:

I would include 18 here, https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R0555ND - 4 sellers @ ~18.5 in June,, and Hmm took over a month to sell for 18 keys 24 ref https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KVEZDDN

The buyers have come up, however using only mp.tf sales and calling all pure sales low here feels weird. I think 18 -21 would be better, includes much more sales balances outliers on each end


Taking the range as 18 - 21 keys!