Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by Default Guy
~$0.027
Unique Refined Metal
10 votes up
26 votes down
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Comments

Ya boi tackling ref now. Here's a proper suggestion for ref.

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Sales and math:


Guy buying keys for 1.71:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-%F0%9F%94%A5-buying-keys-for-171-paypal-may-2020-%F0%9F%94%A5/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696

Key price in ref at the time: 52-51.88

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ec1809a60d5a85b0e79a5ec


1.71/51.88 = 0.03295503211

1.71/52 = 0.03288461538


10 keys sold at 1.89 on mp.tf on 5/15/2020:

https://i.imgur.com/I893J8a.png

Key price in ref at the time: 53-52.88

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5eb9ef5e34e62548401aa7e7

1.89 - 10% = ~1.70

1.7/52.88 = 0.03214285714

1.7/53 = 0.03207547169


10 keys sold at 1.89 on mp.tf on 4/30/2020:

https://i.imgur.com/JNqPvGT.png

Key price in ref at the time: 53.11-53.33

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ea50ce38abde0193b145ce3

1.8 - 10% = 1.62

1.62/53.33 = 0.030375

1.62/53 = 0.03050209205


Around 3,200 Sales on mp.tf on 5/20/2020: (only taking the extremes and the prices with higher sales than average)

https://i.imgur.com/6AV5B1r.png

https://i.imgur.com/8gRaUDP.png

Key price in ref at the time: 52-51.88

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ec1809a60d5a85b0e79a5ec


152 Sales @1.81:

1.81 - 10% = 1.629

1.629/52 = 0.03132692308

1.629/51.88 = 0.03139400428


87 Sales @1.82:

1.82 - 10% = 1.638

1.638/52 = 0.0315

1.638/51.88 = 0.03156745182


122 Sales @1.83:

1.83 - 10% = 1.647

1.647/52 = 0.03167307692

1.647/51.88 = 0.03174089936


116 Sales @1.88:

1.88 - 10% = 1.692

1.692/52 = 0.03253846154

1.692/51.88 = 0.03260813704


1,003 Sales @1.89:

1.89 - 10% = 1.70

1.70/52 = 0.03269230769

1.70/51.88 = 0.03276231263


2 Sales @1.93:

1.93 - 10% = 1.737

1.737/52 = 0.03340384615

1.737/51.88 = 0.03347537473


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Misc. Proof and/or things of note:

Mp.tf stats for ref: https://i.imgur.com/IGEdEbn.png

Mp.tf stats for keys: https://i.imgur.com/6AV5B1r.png

Ref Sales @$0.04: https://i.imgur.com/yGG44wJ.png

(btw just saying that $0.04 - 10% is $0.036)


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If you average out all of the numbers it would be equal to 0.03208988131, which when rounded would mean that Refined Metal would be worth $0.03.

Not gonna make the price range $0.03-$0.04 because there was no case in which the ref price was equal more than $0.033, if there were cases in which ref was something like $0.035, $0.036, $0.038, $0.037, etc..., then I would've made the range $0.03-$0.04.

    https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6 - Buy orders up the butthole at $0.03, but median price is still $0.04 and has been for months with thousands of sales per day. With the 10% taken out, you're still above 3.5 cents each, which would at the very least need a range.


    And if we were using key sales via other sources than MP to price refined, then in addition to PayPal direct sales, you'd also need sales from other item trading sites, and you'd also have to use the SCM, since sales happen there as well. Thousands have sold for ~$2.40 in the past couple of days on the SCM (geez that's disgusting), thus you'd get 2.40 / 52 = 0.046, or 4.6 cents per refined, then if you had to take the service tax out, 4.6 x 0.85 = 3.91, thus is way too high for a drop to $0.03 unless it's a range.


    This can't be dropped to $0.03, at the very most it has to be a range. Most of my points still stand.

I like how 20,000 buy orders at @ $0.03, almost double the amount available at $0.04+ isn't enough for a range here.