Price Suggestion
~22.5 keys
grail
Unusual Taunt: Conga Holy Grail
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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3003

Jan 2 - $38.00 = 21 keys

Jan 9 - $37.00 = 21 keys

Jan 22 - $38.00 = 21 keys

Feb 8 - $37.62 = 21 keys

Feb 10 - $37.62 = 21 keys

Feb 15 - $36.87 = 21 keys

Feb 15 - $37.24 = 21 keys

Feb 17 - $38.00 = 21 keys

Feb 21 - $34.99 = 20 keys

Feb 29 - $45.95 = 26 keys

Mar 23 - $48.50 = 29 keys

Mar 26 - $49.00 = 29 keys

Mar 26 - $49.99 = 30 keys

Mar 29 - $49.99 = 30 keys


https://backpack.tf/item/6441481005

https://backpack.tf/item/5689501523

https://backpack.tf/item/5493850987

https://backpack.tf/item/4390945287

https://backpack.tf/item/3437702188

https://backpack.tf/item/2912055301


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129819677#!/compare/1582675200/1582761600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097962791#!/compare/1582329600/1583452800

Untraceable, most likely a Marketplace sale


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https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=1118&q=5&ef=Holy Grail&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/59c510917b79c2a5d41f9559d73cd387

Bot.tf sales:

1 @ 18 keys 1/3/2020, 3:03:49 AM

1 @ 18 keys, 16.00 ref 1/4/2020, 11:47:08 AM

1 @ 18 keys, 28.00 ref 1/4/2020, 9:55:23 PM

1 @ 18 keys, 44.00 ref 1/22/2020, 10:26:23 AM

1 @ 18 keys, 44.00 ref 1/23/2020, 2:39:55 AM

1 @ 32 keys 3/18/2020, 8:43:57 PM

1 @ 23 keys 3/28/2020, 3:47:26 AM


Rounding all of these up or down accordingly, so that it goes into the number sorter easily


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252277098#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

18 keys + 2 refined bot.tf quicksell March 19


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419169535#!/compare/1578528000/1578614400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1578528000/1578614400

Untraceable, but most likely the Jan 9 15 keys + 21.11 refined bot.tf quicksell


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1579564800/1579651200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196191411#!/compare/1579651200/1579824000

Jan 22 bot.tf sale for 18 keys + 44 refined


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1577923200/1578009600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834668467#!/compare/1577923200/1578182400

Jan 3 bot.tf sale for 18 keys


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420714643#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

Untraceable, most likely the 32 key bot.tf sale on March 18


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200846930#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400

Untraceable, most likely the March 25 quicksell to bot.tf for 17 keys + 1 refined


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1585267200/1585353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969129810#!/compare/1585094400/1585353600

bot.tf sale on March 28 for 23 keys, although only 19 show up using near id


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1578096000/1578182400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834188334#!/compare/1577836800/1578528000

One of the January 4 bot.tf sales for 18 keys + 16 or 28 refined


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181025977#!/compare/1581292800/1581292800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080394134#!/compare/1581206400/1581292800

Went into scrap.tf unique,


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080394134#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117090444#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

Crafted after scrap.tf buy


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198364658689#!/compare/1582761600/1583020800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063277686#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

18 keys


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207550427#!/compare/1581897600/1581984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077030510#!/compare/1582243200/1582934400

Untraceable


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040690339#!/compare/1579910400/1579996800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252277098#!/compare/1584403200/1584489600

16 keys


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974289370#!/compare/1580515200/1580601600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197979814581#!/compare/1579392000/1581638400

Untraceable


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318065526#!/compare/1582848000/1582934400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198371923#!/compare/1582848000/1583020800

19 keys


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1580428800/1580515200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200785531#!/compare/1580428800/1580688000

Untraceable, no bot.tf dates match and nothing found via near ID


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105155926#!/compare/1579737600/1580428800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198823420149#!/compare/1579478400/1581811200

20 keys, looks a little confusing but the first compare link sold a Holy Grail Conga and bought another one in the same link


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310741154#!/compare/1579651200/1579737600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323071283#!/compare/1579651200/1579737600

Still unique


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323071283#!/compare/1580256000/1580342400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061779536#!/compare/1580256000/1580342400

Still unique


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061779536#!/compare/1580688000/1580774400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1580688000/1580774400

Still unique


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1580947200/1581033600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101829283#!/compare/1580860800/1581033600

Crafted


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065145332#!/compare/1581120000/1582156800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129819677#!/compare/1581033600/1581120000

Bulk


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420714643#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200846930#!/compare/1584921600/1585008000

Untraceable


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983255976#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969129810#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

I don't know


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983255976#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874677360#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

Untraceable


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095940338#!/compare/1578528000/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062537014#!/compare/1578441600/1578528000

Untraceable


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095940338#!/compare/1579478400/1581120000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1579478400/1579564800

Looks like quicksold to scrap.tf for 9 keys + 20.11 refined


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Sales:

16

18

18

18

19

19

19

19

20

20

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

23

26

29

29

30

30

32


Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/a97e1c19205b2a6513be968a314cdcc9

27, 32 x3, 35, 67


https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3003

https://gyazo.com/908c236a0fcd541d433010af08557cda

$49.49, $49.99 = Approximately 30 keys

$169


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Buyers:

https://gyazo.com/a97e1c19205b2a6513be968a314cdcc9

Five buyers from 16-17 keys


https://gyazo.com/2b0937b88002e82bd56a2d9cc2be54b1

Five buyers from $25.40 to $26.50 = About 15 keys


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The 27 key seller is 22 days old

There's some sales above 21, and while they are fairly recent, they just get beat out by so many sales at least

Going with 18-21 keys

    I see the reason for not including anything above 27. But I'm not really seeing a reason to exclude 23 and 26. Right now 1 outlier on the low side with 7 outliers on the high side.