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Winter Spirit Taunt: Rock, Paper, Scissors!
Please leave any constructive criticism below. Thank you for your time.
Submission Date: 22/1/2020
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Sell-Orders/Buy-Orders for 22/1/2020:
https://imgur.com/JyXyFjo
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Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/8333654728
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Untraced / Involved Scammer.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084126218#!/compare/1577059200/1577145600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018785061#!/compare/1577059200/1577145600
Excluding.
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Sold for 16 Keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157680604#!/compare/1579392000/1579478400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084126218#!/compare/1579392000/1579478400
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Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/2818691732
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Sold for Miami Nights Crone’s Dome.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198805103941#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000
Outdated; Using the sale here. It would have been excluded regardless because of the the buy order for the Crone’s Dome (at 45 as of writing) is an outlier.
Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/7857350572
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Sold for 12 Keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1578355200/1578441600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052736868#!/compare/1577664000/1578441600
Excluding. This is below the top buy order (at 13 as of writing).
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Marketplace Sales
At $30 with an average price of keys at $1.78 on the Marketplace.
At $39.95 with an average price of keys at $1.77 on the Marketplace.
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1110;5;u3034
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
30 / 1.78 = 16.85 ≈ 17 Keys
39.95 = 1.77 = 22.53 ≈ 23 Keys
I couldn’t trace the exact history for these sales but these are the likely candidates:
Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/7857350572
//
Untraced.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1578528000/1579305600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124673947#!/compare/1578528000/1579305600
//
Untraced.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052736868#!/compare/1576540800/1576713600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127306403#!/compare/1576540800/1576713600
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Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/3731810433
///
Untraced.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074080874#!/compare/1576281600/1576540800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175905570#!/compare/1576368000/1576540800
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Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/6625209728
///
Untraced.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198364210137#!/compare/1576195200/1577059200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280275064#!/compare/1576195200/1577059200
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Conclusion: There are sales at 12, 16, 17 and 23. The sale at 12 is lower than buy orders, making the sale an outlier. No evidence suggesting that 16, 17 and 23 shouldn’t be considered. I propose a range between 16 to 23 (≈19.5).
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New Suggested Value: 16 - 23 (≈19.5)
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8 day seller at 18 to watch out for. If it remains unsold for ~2 weeks, I'd say safely one outlier on either end with a range of 16-17
Sold for 18 about a day ago.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104168501#!/compare/1580169600/1580342400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1580169600/1580256000