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~7.5 keys
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Sale 1:

Sold for 9 keys


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305492646#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086193212#!/compare/1563062400/1564099200

https://backpack.tf/item/2789934935

https://i.imgur.com/3XGXeSu.png - bot.tf confirms

Histories/ID’s don’t match, but it’s pretty hard to dispute it given the bot.tf stats and the seller’s compare link.


X = 9


Sale 2:

Sold for 8 keys + cheap cosmetic


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431333120#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059844222#!/compare/1566259200/1566518400

https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970


X = 8


Sale 3:

Sold for Smoking Madame Dixie


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368964060#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431333120#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400

https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970

Can be used on the Dixie.


Sale 4:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Pom-Pommed Provocateur + 3 keys + cheap fabricator


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068460782#!/compare/1566345600/1566432000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368964060#!/compare/1566345600/1566432000

https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970


No traceable sales on the Provocateur, apart from one to a bot for ~7 keys which isn’t gonna work alone. This sale seems like it might be a fair bit higher than the others anyway, excluding.


Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/104;5;u34

$22.99, July 17th

$16.20, August 6th

$14, August 10th


https://backpack.tf/item/782985412 - 17th July sale

The seller’s bot listed/sold one for 9 keys a couple weeks after this one. Assuming same B/O, since we don’t have listing snapshots to work with.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-17&price=22.99 - $22.99 / $1.82 = 12.63 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-06&price=16.2 - $16.2 / $1.84 = 8.80 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-10&price=14 - $14 / $1.81 = 7.73 keys


X = 9 (Capped by B/O)

X = 9

X = 7.5


Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/1634910123 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970 (#2-5)


#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077436381#!/compare/1476921600/1564099200


#2

Sold with a key for Medi Gun Fabricator?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264021804#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339051439#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

Waaaay too high if so. Excluding.


#3

Sold with dueling minigame for Disco Beat Down Dread Knot + Dead of Night


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339051439#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030697131#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800

https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970


#4

Sold with stuff for orb fire bootleg

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030697131#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169756327#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

using on dat


#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169756327#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068460782#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600


Sellers:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/104;5;u34 - 2x $18.33, close to 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/972507544

https://backpack.tf/item/2789934935


Sales at:

7.5

8

9 (3x)


Sale at 7.5 most likely went to a buy order. The other marketplace sale at 9 most likely went to a buy order as well, but 9 is a common trading point. Excluding 7.5.

Going with 8-9.