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Sale 1:
Sold for 9 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305492646#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086193212#!/compare/1563062400/1564099200
https://backpack.tf/item/2789934935
https://i.imgur.com/3XGXeSu.png - bot.tf confirms
Histories/ID’s don’t match, but it’s pretty hard to dispute it given the bot.tf stats and the seller’s compare link.
X = 9
Sale 2:
Sold for 8 keys + cheap cosmetic
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431333120#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059844222#!/compare/1566259200/1566518400
https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970
X = 8
Sale 3:
Sold for Smoking Madame Dixie
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368964060#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431333120#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400
https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970
Can be used on the Dixie.
Sale 4:
Sold for Kill-a-Watt Pom-Pommed Provocateur + 3 keys + cheap fabricator
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068460782#!/compare/1566345600/1566432000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368964060#!/compare/1566345600/1566432000
https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970
No traceable sales on the Provocateur, apart from one to a bot for ~7 keys which isn’t gonna work alone. This sale seems like it might be a fair bit higher than the others anyway, excluding.
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/104;5;u34
$22.99, July 17th
$16.20, August 6th
$14, August 10th
https://backpack.tf/item/782985412 - 17th July sale
The seller’s bot listed/sold one for 9 keys a couple weeks after this one. Assuming same B/O, since we don’t have listing snapshots to work with.
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-17&price=22.99 - $22.99 / $1.82 = 12.63 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-06&price=16.2 - $16.2 / $1.84 = 8.80 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-10&price=14 - $14 / $1.81 = 7.73 keys
X = 9 (Capped by B/O)
X = 9
X = 7.5
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/1634910123 (#1)
https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970 (#2-5)
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077436381#!/compare/1476921600/1564099200
#2
Sold with a key for Medi Gun Fabricator?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264021804#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339051439#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
Waaaay too high if so. Excluding.
#3
Sold with dueling minigame for Disco Beat Down Dread Knot + Dead of Night
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339051439#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030697131#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800
https://backpack.tf/item/1402708970
#4
Sold with stuff for orb fire bootleg
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030697131#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169756327#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600
using on dat
#5
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169756327#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068460782#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600
Sellers:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/104;5;u34 - 2x $18.33, close to 10 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/972507544
https://backpack.tf/item/2789934935
Sales at:
7.5
8
9 (3x)
Sale at 7.5 most likely went to a buy order. The other marketplace sale at 9 most likely went to a buy order as well, but 9 is a common trading point. Excluding 7.5.
Going with 8-9.