Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by seVen
~$0.04
Unique Refined Metal
179 votes up
13 votes down
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Refined Metal

The community demands, the community recieves.


New price: 0.04 - 0.05 $


Proof:


Marketplace.tf key sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://imgur.com/a/bKgTkor


Most common sell prices in the last 3 days are 1.81$ - 1.82$.

After removing fees we're left with:

1.81$*0.9 = ~1.63$

1.82$*0.9 = ~1.64$


Marketplace.tf ref sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

https://imgur.com/a/mA3Io9x


After watching these for a week, it is safe to say 0.05$ has become a common trading point, especially in the last 3 days with sales at 0.05$ being pretty much as common, if not more common than sales at 0.04$.


PayPal Key Sales

Seller #1:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/72143-buying-keys-172-paypal/?tab=comments#comment-626458

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198023051867

Bought 330 keys for 1.72$ each. (guy seems to have removed that trust comment, when he made the new one)

Bought another 131 keys for 1.72$ each.

Total of 461 keys.


Seller #2:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/47308-300-rep-rockets-key-buying-thread-170/?tab=comments#comment-497670

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198049171595

Bought 19 keys for 1.70$ each.


Seller #3:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/62003-keys-for-172-and-backpacks-via-paypal-tons-of-rep-trusted-trader/?tab=comments#comment-584858

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040898430

Bought 225 keys for 1.72$ each.


Seller #4:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69912-selling-keys-for-166-per-key-got-a-big-stock/?tab=comments#comment-617696

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198139171368

Sold 20 keys for 1.70$ each.


Seller #5:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/72383-tf2-keys-%E2%82%AC147-170-each-via-paypal-revolut-online-bank-transfer/?tab=comments#comment-627659

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198050598239

Bought "some keys" for 1.70$ each.

_________________________________________________________


SUMMARY


Key sales:

1.63$

1.64$

1.70$

1.72$

_________________________________________________________


Keyprice in ref is ~42.33 - 42.44 ref.

https://imgur.com/a/AQjUaeQ

Just in case a simple classies screenshot won't do it, i'll do all calculations with the current 43.88 - 44.11 ref as well.


Convert that into the price per ref:

1.63$ / 42.38 ref = ~0.038 $/ref

1.64$ / 42.38 ref = ~0.039 $/ref

1.70$ / 42.38 ref = ~0.040 $/ref

1.72$ / 42.38 ref = ~0.041 $/ref


1.63$ / 44 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.64$ / 44 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.70$ / 44 ref = ~0.039 $/ref

1.72$ / 44 ref = ~0.039 $/ref


Mp.tf key sales with fees included would be:

1.81$ / 42.38 ref = ~0.043 $/ref

1.82$ / 42.38 ref = ~0.043 $/ref


1.81$ / 44 ref = ~0.041 $/ref

1.82$ / 44 ref = ~0.041 $/ref


Mp.tf ref sales:

0.04 $/ref

0.05 $/ref


Going with 0.04 - 0.05$.


Feel free to add proof to support or counter my new price.

      Marketplace.tf sales

          2745 sold at that just the 1st half of today at 5 cents... seems it is becoming relevant. ~2600 buy orders at 4 cents

              well, open the pictures and you've got your numbers

    MPTF's median ticked up to $0.05 and actually stayed there for yesterday as opposed to being at $0.05 median in the morning then going back down to $0.04 the previous few days. The $0.04 buy order pile has gone up and down, sometimes in the thousands, sometimes in the hundreds. As of now it's in the ~4,000 range, so it'd take a whale selling off their horde to put a proper dent in that at this point.

      This is all wrong... The thing is Refined are used to give a correct value to keys


      It doesn't matter what refined sell for! Refined is priced so Keys are displayed with a price tag that reflects what keys sell for

      $0.01 or $1 Doesn't make a difference! Price should still be set so it correlates to Key price, by taking Key-value $ / Ref-per-Key


      Since there's limitations to decimals and such on bp, one can easily check what is closest to what Keys actually sell for

      ...because Refined sales are irrelevant in this, this is for correct Key-value:


      _____$0.03-0.04

      42.38*0.035= $1.48 = NOT what Keys sell for

      44 *0.035= $1.54 = NOT what Keys sell for


      _____$0.04

      42.38*0.04= $1.7 = (Closest to)CORRECT

      44 *0.04= $1.76 = (Closest to)CORRECT


      ______$0.04-0.05

      42.38*0.045= $1.91 = NOT what Keys sell for

      44 *0.045= $1.98 = NOT what Keys sell for


      Also worth mentioning that Refined is priced to give a [closest possible] correct actual Key value; As in Sales outside in-game store.


      Refined sales doesn't matter

        Tending to agree with this ^

          why was my suggestion at 0.04$ left open for over a week then?

            Shouldn't have been really, apologies.

              So we should just ignore the fact, that ref sales on mp.tf are at a stable 0.05$ now?

                Please read the comment I agreed with. Ref pricing is derived from key prices for a reason, and while straight up ref sales can and should be considered, it's pretty clear that 0.04 gives the most accurate price here. Since this affects the cash value of all items on the site, it's best to be as close to accurate as we can IMO.


                Can keep the suggestion open and see if key price stays steady, if you want, but I would go for 0.04 here.

                  alright, key - cash sales have been stable for months and i doubt keys will drop hard enough to justify a range. Resuggesting.

        Mannco.store tf key sales:

        https://mannco.store/item/1


        Average sell prices in the last month are ~1.75$

        After 5% fee:

        1.75$*0.95 = ~1.66$

        Key price in refs: 42.33 - 42.44 ref

        1.66$ / 42.38 = ~0.039$/ref