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Using last month.
Sale 1:
Sold to a bot for 12 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1564704000/1564790400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1564704000/1564790400
https://backpack.tf/item/6535254117
https://i.imgur.com/0Ol7iGs.png - bot.tf confirms
X = 13
Sale 2:
Sold for 13 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1564704000/1564790400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006361327#!/compare/1564704000/1564790400
https://backpack.tf/item/4553338870
X = 13
Sale 3:
Sold to a bot for 13 keys + 3 ref (keys on the buyer’s end)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046393528#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200
https://backpack.tf/item/3557125101
https://i.imgur.com/0Ol7iGs.png - bot.tf confirms
X = 13
Marketplace Sales:
Sales at $25 (3x) & $26.99
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30570;5;u3006
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-25&price=25 - $25 / $1.81 = 13.81 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-26&price=25 - $25 / $1.82 = 13.74 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-02&price=25 - $25 / $1.81 = 13.81 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-07&price=26.99 - $26.99 / $1.81 = 14.91 keys
X = 15
X = 14 (3x)
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/7723441984 (#1 & #2)
https://backpack.tf/item/6535254117 (#3)
https://backpack.tf/item/5249434896 (#4)
https://backpack.tf/item/3296595108 (#5 & #6)
https://backpack.tf/item/4489634110 - not unusual at the time
https://backpack.tf/item/4240677669 - not unusual at the time
https://backpack.tf/item/3361922086 - scrap/tradeit
https://backpack.tf/item/3310590024 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/3308648819 - all gambled
https://backpack.tf/item/3273198968 - marketplace
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073037982#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
https://i.imgur.com/0Ol7iGs.png - labelled as 13 keys + 3 ref
Listed on marketplace afterwards, with no B/O. Don’t know if it sold there or was pulled and gambled or something.
#2
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101300189#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200
Everything between this and the last one were gambled.
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089203538#!/compare/1564531200/1564704000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1564617600/1564704000
Only fairly worthless items are visible here.
#4
SCM
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025083656#!/compare/1564272000/1564358400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060673163#!/compare/1564531200/1564876800
#5
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971805272#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
#6
SCM
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078373457#!/compare/1564012800/1564099200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993422884#!/compare/1564012800/1564185600
Everything in the history between #5 & #6 appears to have been gambled
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/ta1mLye.png
https://i.imgur.com/XchoVQw.png
https://backpack.tf/item/3341301268 - 12 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7723441984 - 12 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6674599755 - 13 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6535254117 - 17 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7006799758 - 17 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3269687729 - 17 keys
Sales at:
13 (3x)
14 (3x)
15
Sellers at 12, including 12.
Given 3 sellers at 13 or lower, 14+ will have to be dropped from the range. This wasn’t a difficult choice as they were marketplace sales, which aren’t an accurate reflection of this item’s pure value. Excluding 14 and 15.
Going with 12-13.