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Sale 1:
Sold for Pro. KS C.A.P.P.E.R (~4) + 2 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082931385#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200
https://backpack.tf/item/5095761991
https://i.imgur.com/M08l1NL.png - B/O of ~6.5 keys
X = 6
Sale 2:
Sold for 5 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135347065#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200
https://backpack.tf/item/6276830524
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/426JVQQY
X = 5
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1168;5;u3001
$13.68 on July 4th
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-04 - $13.68 / $1.84 = 7.43 keys
X = 7.5
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/7432015048 (#1)
https://backpack.tf/item/7100054058 (#2)
https://backpack.tf/item/6276830524 (#3 & #4)
https://backpack.tf/item/5487599373 (#5)
https://backpack.tf/item/4954432166 (#6)
https://backpack.tf/item/5008705655 - tradeit
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101300189#!/compare/1562630400/1562889600
https://i.imgur.com/M08l1NL.png - labelled as 6 keys + 5 ref (~6)
Item was gambled afterwards. No other usable sales in the history.
#2
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1561507200/1561593600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1561507200/1561593600
https://i.imgur.com/M08l1NL.png - labelled as 6 keys + 20 ref (~6.5)
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198857393271#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600
#4
Untraceable, missing a person in history
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078373457#!/compare/1562889600/1562976000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1562976000/1563062400
#5
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198451063719#!/compare/1561420800/1561507200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088968038#!/compare/1561420800/1561593600
#6
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1562716800/1563753600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075552138#!/compare/1562544000/1562716800
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/u7ppZsr.png
https://backpack.tf/item/7443871746 - ~6.6 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6780885154 - ~9 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5512365458 - 9 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/4952898500 - 45 keys
Sales at:
5
6
7.5
7.5 is a fair bit higher than the seller at ~6.6 keys, and higher than the recent recorded bot.tf sales. Excluding 7.5
Going with 5-6.