Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by Headshotdoge Mannco.store
~$0.04
Unique Refined Metal
199 votes up
247 votes down
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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/61165-refined-suggestions-and-site-usd-values/ this is how you do it


Marketplace.tf Key sales:


https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6


Most recent sales of mp.tf keys are between 1.83$ - 1.85$


1.83$ * 0.9= ~1.65

1.85$ * 0.9= ~1.67


Marketplace.tf + Mannco.store Refined sales:


https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

https://gyazo.com/380793c187e379128c8cd56790f49a5b

https://mannco.store/item/1763


https://gyazo.com/893280e60c5fb0233b5b03cd122c1cad


Constantly at 0.04$


Paypal sales:


1.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/70428-buying-keys-175-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198070705963


Bought 228 Keys for 1.75$


2.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/70262-buying-tf2-keys-165-usd-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197967345272


Bought 8 Keys for 1.65$


3.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/70840-tf2-keys-175-usd-ea-paypal-cashrep-trusted-steam/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198120347709


Selling for 1.75$ , doesn't seem to have sold any.


4.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66758-buying-keys-for-167-usd-via-paypaltrusted-trader/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198063345374


Apprently bought 3311 Keys for 1.67$


5.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68890-buying-keys-for-174usd-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793444


Bought 1177 Keys for 1.74$


6.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/58098-tf2csgo-keys-175-185-each-paypalwm-lots-of-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197999121454


doesn't seem like he sold any Keys at 1.75$


7.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/47073-170-usd-for-your-keys-no-rep-needed-veteran-trusted-trader/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197969363424


Bought 1832 Keys for 1.70$

Bought 400 Keys for 1.69$ ( https://gyazo.com/f41d753f83f300e5ea7d1ecdd2f9d8bd )


8.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-175-for-your-tf2-keys-paypal-us/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696


Bought 200 Keys for 1.75$


9.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/71780-selling-850-keys-18-usd-each/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198044202601


Sold atleast 160 Keys for 1.80$


10.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/47271-300-rep-rockets-keys-for-175-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198049171595


Sold atleast 38 Keys for 1.75$


Summary of Key sales


1.65$

1.67$

1.69$

1.70$

1.74$

1.75$

1.75$

1.75$

1.75$

1.80$


Accepted Key suggestion :


https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d2108f1d38172385729a180


53.44-53.55

(53.495 ref)


last suggestion also used my key suggestion as proof :)


Cash:


1.65$ / 53.495= 0.030844

1.67$ / 53.495= 0.030844

1.69$ / 53.495= 0.031591

1.70$ / 53.495= 0.031778

1.74$ / 53.495= 0.032526

1.75$ / 53.495= 0.032713

1.75$ / 53.495= 0.032713

1.75$ / 53.495= 0.032713

1.75$ / 53.495= 0.032713

1.80$ / 53.495= 0.033648


Marketplace.tf


1.65$ / 53.495= 0.030844

1.67$ / 53.495= 0.030844


Marketplace.tf refined sales


0.04$


New proposed pirce :


0.03$ flat


Cash sales are clearing indicating that 0.03 will be the best range to go here, mp.tf and mannco.store sales of ref can not be used (Thanks to sin my boye)


Credits: My good boye lover sin for requesting this, FishCrimes and Erik for being that cute, seVen from whomst I've stolen the formatting.

    lets ignore several 1000 sales at 0.04 and drop the value of everything priced on backpack.tf by 25%.


    I see no reason why 0.04 should not be in the range

    Edit: 15000 buyorders for 0.03 USD in marketplace...

        Read the suggestion guide for refined metal, in point 2 you can see that mp.tf and mannco.store proof CAN NOT be used. You pay more due to it being easier and more secure for you. To adress the other question, refined can only be priced in full cents. in the end, why are you so sad that refined goes down? It is overpriced currently and your unusuals will still all be worth the same

          It seems to me to key merchants like the way prices are right now as it is. True ref is 4 cents on those markets but they don't pull any commission from ref sales because the amounts are miniscule. So when you pay 4 cents for ref you spend 4 cents.


          But back to the key merchants. They're probably going to jump up the key-ref ratio again to compensate. We just had TWO value changes in the price of REF to Keys in under a month. Perhaps we should be allowing the market to stabilize before we make a change this drastic.

            You pay more because you can only list items on those stores for .03 or .04, not fractions of a cent. Essentially nobody sells for .03 hence why some will pay .04 for it.

            On July 11th, 3,798 refined metal sells for $0.04.

            https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6


            On July 11th, 5,337 keys sell for an average of $1.85.

            https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6


            In this suggestion, we acknowledge that 1 key is = 53.495 refined, the average of the current range right now.

            Therefore, if 5,337 keys sell for $1.85 in 1 day, it would be the equivalent of approximately ~285,503 refined metal sold for ~$0.03 each.


            Math

            $1.85 (key price in $) / 53.495 (key price in ref) = ~$0.03 per refined metal.

            5,337 (# of keys sold in 1 day) * 53.495 (key price in ref) = ~285,503 refined metal.


            So let's look at the scenario now, bearing in mind that we're only looking at marketplace.tf right now:


            285,503 sales of refined metal at $0.03 ea.

            3,798 sales of refined metal at $0.04 ea.


            Do you still believe it would be a good idea to include $0.04 in the range? Especially if the $0.04 sales are only a mere 1.31% of our total sales?

            https://i.imgur.com/4Qk0GM0.png


            This is all ignoring that marketplace.tf takes a 10% cut for selling keys; if I had included that in my math it would further prove my point.

            I'm debating whether 0.03-0.04 might be better here, given that the median would be closer to accurate.

                The key suggestion is based of sales from refined to Keys. The value of refined doesn't have anything to do with the price of keys. It's not relevant for how much keys sell for or how much refined sells for.


                This refined suggestion is based on Paypal and mp.tf key sales which are divided by the amount of how much 1 Key costs in refined metal.


                If you want to counter this suggestion or suggest a new key price, feel free to do so. While you do that I will be browsing some cute doggo photos and drink some tea with lemons juice.


                https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/61165-refined-suggestions-and-site-usd-values/

                https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/2620-rules-for-key-suggestions/

                    Is the point of a suggestion to not ACKNOWLEDGE the current market trends? Ignoring the fact that MP.TF does NOT take percentages on penny transactions which I can prove unequivocally by providing my MP.TF cell sheet for the past month, you are still talking about upending the trading market over a $0.33 disparity between the trade currency equivalent value ($2.1375) and the actual trade value (1.75 - 1.85). So your solution is to devalue the token used to make pure change rather than issue a correction to a key suggestion.


                    And for those of you making the argument that "Keys are refined are not intrinsically related", that is the whole basis of his argument. His argument is if A = B, and B = C, then A = C must also be true.


                    Your solution, while not only wildly inaccurate, would ridiculously upend the market by causing sellers to raise their "pure values" higher to compensate for the lowered value of the token. If you were so concerned about the KEY - REF trade currency equivalent ratio not being equal to the actual trade value, you should have made a recommendation to correct the KEY pricing instead of lowering REF.


                    Keys are used to delineate the values in REF. REF has a set value. Decrease the value in REF, and you cause EVERYTHING to drop and people to raid PURE pricing.

                      You basically have it all backwards...

                      Ref has no set value in fact, it has NO value. It's a tool to price keys since the site is coded with Ref as main currency.

                      What does "correction to a key suggestion" even mean? Pricing at 45 Ref when they sell for 53.55?


                      "...and you cause EVERYTHING to drop" This is kinda the whole point.. and it doesn't change anything!

                      The number in the corner changes. NOTHING ELSE!

                      Keys still sell for same amount of $, same amount of Ref. A 50 key hat is still worth 50 keys whatever someone wants to pay.

                  Why are fees deducted from mplc sales? (..on keys in ref suggestions). It doesn't happen with other items in suggestions afaik.


                  I've read the Rules without luck and even examples used there don't show any deduction.

                  Doesn't add up in my head when taking into account the 3-7% PayPal-fee(depending on location and amount) and that most sales these days are on sites like mplc.

                  Put in perspective: All cash trades listed here are sold per day on mplc alone.

                  Been wondering about this a while and I clearly wont figure it myself, if I haven't by now.


                  I don't care much what value it says in the corner but I would prefer if value of keys end up close to what most actually pays. Price-tags on items would be more correct/comparable across sites. Keys are $2.14 now and will be $1.61 if accepted, none are what vast majority is paying...

                    Let's pretend your item is being sold for $100, for the sake of making the math easier.


                    Marketplace.tf takes a 10% cut of the money you receive from selling your item on their website, and as you know the seller pays the fee if their item gets sold. Knowing that, let's say you sell your item for that $100. You receive $90 from selling your item but Marketplace.tf receives $10 since you used their website.


                    Essentially, you pay Marketplace.tf 10% in order to guarantee the security of the transaction. Therefore, since that 10% was not for the item itself, but the security of the transaction, it should not count as part of the item's value, since that is not what the item itself truly sold for.


                    TLDR:


                    Item value is 90%

                    Security of selling your item on the website is 10%


                    Since we are displaying item value, the 10% cut should not be displayed.

                      Thanks for replying but unfortunately I'm still not getting it..

                      I mean I know what you are saying and how mplc works but it doesn't explain why the fee gets deducted on "only" keys when suggesting ref,


                      I see now that PayPal is a bad example since buyer pays fees but;

                      Mplc takes the same 10% regardless of item, those items are still priced off what Buyer paid.

                      If it was an Unusual or Aussie in your example that sold for $100 thats the number you'd divide with key-price, not $90 which is what seller actually gets.

                      SCM sales used aren't deducted 13.04% either.


                      Idk... Maybe I'm just dumb

                        I'm having trouble with this pricing method as well, if buyers are willing to pay $100 for an item, why would it be listed on bp.tf for the key equivalent of $90? Edit: I guess it's just a question if the buyer is truly the one paying extra, or if the seller is metaphorically handing the money to marketplace for it's service after the fact.

                      None of your sales show that refined is worth $0.300. They show that refined is 0.031-0.033. And considering there are thousands of refined sold every day for 0.04, it's just not fair to price it that low.


                      0.03-0.04 would be better in this case. It will still be somewhat overpriced, but underpricing just because (if) 0.035 can't be used, is even worse. IMO.

                            I support the suggestion but rounding it down to 3 cents is steep

                              Refined is closer to $.0315-.03475 depending on if you are factoring in store fees for keys, which itself actually rounds closer to $.035 than to $.03.

                              There are actually no store commissions for selling refined at either mannco or marketplace so people are selling an average of 4500-6000 per day at $.04.


                              To the poster who says 285,000 refined worth of keys sell per day, there is only around 4 million total refined in existence. If all of those keys were sold into refined the price of keys in refined would heavily drop, and it is a flawed assumption to say the refined sales at .04 constitute 1%-2% of refined cash sales, only a small portion of those keys are actually sold for refined. .03-.04 would be more accurate than .04 and certainly more so than .03. Virtually no refined sells at .03 while the majority of key sales occur near the mid range and actual refined sells at the high range. There are also nearly 24,000 unfulfilled buy orders at .03 on both mannco and marketplace.


                              rounding to $.03 is grossly inaccurate when the values are this low, this should not be accepted for "neatness", it should either be resuggested at .03-.04 or the website needs to update to start going into the mill range or lower for refined to actually be accurate. With the key sales at .03475 This is as inaccurate as accepting a key price of 61.66 or 46 instead of 53.33

                                    I was wrong on the number of refined in existence, there is 6.7 million according to backpack.tf, but the point still stands that saying the actual thousands of refined cash sales only represent 1-2% of the volume is a bad comparison, its no different than saying that a thousand tour of duty tickets sell a day and they are worth 25 ref and therefore refined cash sales are only a fraction of the volume.


                                    There are several solutions here,

                                    start pricing refined in fractions of a cent

                                    start pricing keys in both USD and refined

                                    re suggest this at .03-.04 for accuracy, but this only a duct tape fix


                                    Rounding is meant to make a number simpler but keep the value close to the actual number, this is not close to the actual value, essentially no refined sells at .03, keys are worth 52.55 ref and worth $1.83 paypal at the moment im writing this, we can say refined is .0348 for simplicity. To accept this would be inaccurate.

                                      - "its no different than saying that a thousand tour of duty tickets sell a day and they are worth 25 ref and therefore refined cash sales are only a fraction of the volume."


                                      This is simply untrue; keys are not just any other item. Keys and refined metal have an inverse relationship and are both currencies in this economy. Pricing refined metal the way we do now is serving as a workaround for deriving every item's monetary value from keys. The best solution will always be pricing keys in USD and deriving all item values from that price instead of pricing refined in USD (since keys are the most stable currency), but with the way the site is coded this just simply isn't possible right now. This is why we take the USD value of keys and divide them by their refined metal value; it's the best way to display that inverse relationship and has proven to be more accurate than say, pricing refined metal based on only the sales of metal, to which there was little to none of; smaller sample sizes lead to more mistakes.


                                      - "start pricing refined in fractions of a cent"


                                      Look, I understand the issues with rounding, but to what end are we going to keep exact values of refined (if it's even possible to do right now)? Yes, if this suggestion got accepted right now keys would be displayed a bit cheaper than they normally sell for (more or less $0.10 cheaper), but this issue will resolve itself when keys raise in price, so I do not see much of a reason to fuss over it right now.


                                      - "start pricing keys in both USD and refined"


                                      Like I said before, pricing keys in USD would be the best solution but this is currently impossible due to how the website is coded. Regardless of that, the way we are pricing refined metal right now is the workaround for this issue. The way we're doing it now is the best way to accurately represent this inverse relationship as well as price every other item in USD.


                                      - "re suggest this at .03-.04 for accuracy, but this only a duct tape fix"


                                      What you're suggesting (including the $0.04 sales of refined metal directly) is exactly what will make the USD value of keys display inaccurately. Assuming keys are still worth 53.49 refined like they were when this suggestion was originally created:


                                      1 refined = $0.035 ---> 53.49 ref x $0.035 = ~$1.87

                                      vs.

                                      1 refined = $0.03 ---> 53.49 ref x $0.03 = ~$1.60


                                      Keys selling for $1.83 on Marketplace.tf =/= keys are worth $1.83. Here is a screenshot of my previous comment explaining this: https://i.imgur.com/jTCkoIS.png


                                      To continue, $1.83 * 0.9 = ~$1.65. Paypal sellers also have been selling keys in the $1.65 - $1.75 range. From this information, let's just say keys are $1.68 right now.


                                      The difference between displaying keys at $1.87 and $1.60 is quite obvious now. Displaying keys at $1.87 makes us almost $0.20 off. Displaying keys at $1.60 makes us $0.08 low, and baring in mind keys will continue to rise in refined. That would mean displaying keys at $1.87 would just make the USD value of keys even more inaccurate in the future since it will just continue to rise.


                                      - "keys are worth 52.55 ref and worth $1.83 paypal at the moment im writing this, we can say refined is .0348 for simplicity. To accept this would be inaccurate."


                                      Yes, because this suggestion has been open for more than week. These values changing is the exact reason why suggestions are sometimes left open.


                                      Regardless of this fact, refined would still not equal $0.035 even with these new numbers; you've not factored out the 10% cut from marketplace.tf. Like I have explained before, the cut is not part of the key's intrinsic value. Therefore, using your values:


                                      $1.83 * 0.9 = $1.65


                                      $1.65 / 52.55 = ~$0.031 per 1 refined metal. This would still round down to $0.03, as much as you don't favor rounding.

                                        At the time this was posted refined was NOT .03 even after the fees for keys, marketplace.tf does not exactly take a 10% cut, they take 1 cent starting at 6 cents and then every 10 cents they take another. Sure this is approximately 10% but items under 6 cents have no fees at all, meaning people are not selling refined for 4 cents and receiving 3. As far as im concerned mannco operates the same way except for a 5% fee for sellers.


                                        Even when the refined price has been pretty much exactly the same as the marketplace price it was only selling about twice as much per day as it does now, so even when the price of buying refined was identical to buying a key and selling it for refined, the key volume was still massively higher. Ignoring the refined cash sales that are being sold for no fees at .04 is just wrong.


                                        Removing the seller fees is flawed because everyone buying a key for 1.83 then selling for refined is paying ~.0348 for refined right now. The seller received cash, the person "buying" the refined is the person paying $1.83, now this can be argued that marketplace keys are overpriced because security, ok sure, but the price that is paid for keys regardless of fees, whether paypal sellers or marketplace is what should be used not what the seller receives because the only person who can sell that key for metal is the one who bought it

                                        .

                                        Seller fees are not removed when pricing any other item using marketplace.tf sales, also buyers usually pay the fees on paypal sales which means they pay more than the seller receives. The price that should be used is the one buyers pay. Paypal fees can vary depending on the size of the transaction and also marketplace.tf has more volume in one day than all the paypal transactions in this suggestion.


                                        Also I used tour of duty tickets as an comparison because they are another currency item, their price is inverse with metal and keys themselves and their sales volume is also massively higher than actual refined itself.

                                          - "At the time this was posted refined was NOT .03 even after the fees for keys"


                                          Yes it was..

                                          https://i.imgur.com/2H01wwZ.png


                                          - "items under 6 cents have no fees at all, meaning people are not selling refined for 4 cents and receiving 3"


                                          I know; I've not ever said this. I'm saying that there are far more sales that round to $0.03 than $0.04. Refer to my original comment about this: https://i.imgur.com/df5eC1I.png


                                          - "Even when the refined price has been pretty much exactly the same as the marketplace price it was only selling about twice as much per day as it does now, so even when the price of buying refined was identical to buying a key and selling it for refined, the key volume was still massively higher. Ignoring the refined cash sales that are being sold for no fees at .04 is just wrong."


                                          Gonna be honest, I can't understand what you're saying in this first sentence so I'm just going to respond to the second one.


                                          Ignoring these sales isn't wrong at all. We operate with common trading points, and seeing as these direct cash --> refined sales 1) make up 1.31% of our total sales and 2) literally would never happen without the existence of websites such as marketplace and mannco.store to begin with, I do not see a valid reason to include $0.04 in the range; there's barely any $0.04 sales.


                                          - "Removing the seller fees is flawed because everyone buying a key for 1.83 then selling for refined is paying ~.0348 for refined right now. The seller received cash, the person "buying" the refined is the person paying $1.83, now this can be argued that marketplace keys are overpriced because security, ok sure, but the price that is paid for keys regardless of fees, whether paypal sellers or marketplace is what should be used not what the seller receives because the only person who can sell that key for metal is the one who bought it"


                                          Not necessarily. A key selling for $1.83 doesn't change the fact that the seller's fee is still part of that total value. If anything, that means the buyer is paying the 10% fee as well as the other 90% of the cost, which is the item itself. Because of that, it means the buyer isn't necessarily spending $1.83 on a key, but $1.83 for the key and the fee that comes with the seller selling their item on Marketplace.tf. It's essentially like buying items at the supermarket and the customer having to pay the state tax.


                                          - "Seller fees are not removed when pricing any other item using marketplace.tf sales"


                                          And that is also an inconsistency I don't like; it's probably why marketplace.tf sales are generally viewed as high compared to pure sales on suggestions to begin with. The justification for using what the buyer pays on SCM sales was because the buyer had to deal with selling their items on the SCM in order to get money to buy from the SCM (most of the time); that was unfair on the buyer. With Marketplace.tf I don't see this being the case; people who buy anything from marketplace.tf use cash they have readily available, and there is no fee they have to pay in order to get "marketplace credit" or something like that, unlike with the SCM.


                                          - "also buyers usually pay the fees on paypal sales which means they pay more than the seller receives."


                                          While that can happen, there's no way of knowing this for certain; the only way we know these paypal sales happen is from trusts left on each other's trust pages, and no one ever gets specific on those. There's not really much of a reason to look past "Bought 300 keys for $1.65 each".


                                          - "Paypal fees can vary depending on the size of the transaction and also marketplace.tf has more volume in one day than all the paypal transactions in this suggestion."


                                          Yup, and regardless of this they both agree with each other. Refined metal = $0.03.


                                          - "Also I used tour of duty tickets as an comparison because they are another currency item, their price is inverse with metal and keys themselves and their sales volume is also massively higher than actual refined itself."


                                          ToD tickets are not a currency item; only keys and refined metal are now generally accepted as currency items in the TF2 community. This is what separates keys and refined metal from any other item. Their acceptance as currency items come from their necessity. Keys are needed for bigger trades and refined metal is needed for smaller trades. This is also why earbuds are not a currency anymore; they lost their utility and therefore were not considered a currency anymore. Since we already have keys and refined metal to cover these different types of trades, ToD tickets aren't needed to fill a certain type of purpose right now, and it's exactly why ToD tickets aren't generally accepted as a currency item, which is what needs to happen if you want to consider them as a currency.