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~12.5 keys
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Unusual Thirst Blood Smoking
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Sale 1:

Sold for 16 keys


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041219518#!/compare/1551744000/1552003200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191622099#!/compare/1551916800/1552003200

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 16


Sale 2:

Sold for Killstreak Aus Stickybomb Launcher (~13) + 3 keys


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198245174152#!/compare/1556323200/1556409600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172388346#!/compare/1556323200/1556409600

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 16


Sale 3:

Sold for 15 keys


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349886701#!/compare/1558742400/1558828800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165771346#!/compare/1558742400/1558828800

https://backpack.tf/item/3009405878


X = 15


Sale 4:

Sold for 15 keys + 15 ref


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1558569600/1558656000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075552138#!/compare/1558569600/1558656000

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 15


Sale 5:

Sold for 14 keys + cheap stuff in ~2 days


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172388346#!/compare/1556409600/1556582400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084164485#!/compare/1556496000/1556582400

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 14


Sale 6:

Sold with some metal for 14 keys


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065426457#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284941678#!/compare/1557187200/1557273600

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 14


Sale 7:

Quicksold for 13 keys + more than 0.5 keys in ref


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802522324#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065426457#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 14


Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 13 keys + less than half a key in ref


Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284941678#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404


X = 13


Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30479;5;u35

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-04-01 - $26.5 / $1.79 = 14.80 keys


X = 15


Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/3009405878 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/3044731404 (#3-5)


#1

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156328157#!/compare/1519862400/1519948800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377472101#!/compare/1554768000/1556841600


#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377472101#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349886701#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000

Most likely sold for the keys and metal on the buyer’s side.


#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191622099#!/compare/1556236800/1556409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198245174152#!/compare/1556323200/1556409600


#4

Sold with 14 keys for Cloud 9 Das Hazmattenhatten

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084164485#!/compare/1556668800/1556755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1556582400/1556755200


#5

Untraceable, only 6 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1556841600/1556928000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802522324#!/compare/1545436800/1556928000

Seller would’ve sold for keys, then used the keys to buy the burning hat.


Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/f7HCAnq.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3009405878 - 15 keys


Sales at:

13 (2x)

14 (3x)

15 (3x)

16 (2x)


Too many sales at and below 14 to exclude. Keeping 14, excluding 13.

Going with 14-16.