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Using last month.
Sale 1:
Sold for Mega Strike Yeti Punch + Mega Strike Yeti Smash
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1557446400/1557532800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072259514#!/compare/1557360000/1557532800
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4RX379D4 - My B/O was ~7.5
https://i.imgur.com/5CnYej8.png
https://i.imgur.com/hcImT4I.png
Quickbuyers on the two taunts add up to ~8 keys, this’ll cap.
X = 7.5 (Capped by B/O)
Sale 2:
Sold for 7 keys?
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000
Buyer?: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198375014774#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000
https://backpack.tf/item/2720746046
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4OJLG9QY
We see 7 keys on the seller’s end, but name and history doesn’t match. Given this item was gambled afterwards, it’s likely that the item sold to the user that the keys came from.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057292706#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000
Even if I’m wrong, we have another sale at 7 that’ll be used anyways.
X = 7
Sale 3:
Sold to a bot for 6 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126599829#!/compare/1558224000/1558310400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802465612#!/compare/1558224000/1558310400
https://backpack.tf/item/2720746046
X = 6.5
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/1107;5;u3006
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-04-30 - $20.78 / $1.81 = 11.48 keys
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-01 - $13 / $1.81 = 7.18 keys
X = 11
X = 7
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/7372668044 (#1 & #2)
https://backpack.tf/item/7064505539 (#3)
https://backpack.tf/item/3177695793 (#4)
https://backpack.tf/item/3070535956 (#5)
https://backpack.tf/item/2771071599 (#6)
https://backpack.tf/item/2720746046 (#7 & #8)
https://backpack.tf/item/6376854302 (#9)
https://backpack.tf/item/3108237964 - scrap
https://backpack.tf/item/4889650523 - gambled
https://backpack.tf/item/4461278998 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/7151540872 - scammers
#1
Buk for Spooky Victory Lap
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080060319#!/compare/1556582400/1556668800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1556582400/1556668800
#2
Sold for 6 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072259514#!/compare/1557705600/1557792000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141319249#!/compare/1557619200/1557792000
I feel like more was involved but spent on the same day, so I’ll exclude this.
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136640148#!/compare/1556409600/1556496000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1556323200/1556409600
#4
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125035818#!/compare/1556496000/1556582400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396322888#!/compare/1556496000/1556582400
https://i.imgur.com/01v0lfS.png - labelled as ~6.5 keys
#5
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171285466#!/compare/1555718400/1555804800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308408679#!/compare/1555286400/1555804800
#6
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077625769#!/compare/1555632000/1555718400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1555632000/1555718400
#7
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053173151#!/compare/1555113600/1557878400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372263978#!/compare/1554595200/1557878400
#8
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372263978#!/compare/1554595200/1557878400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1557792000/1557878400
#9
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016663834#!/compare/1556323200/1556409600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1556323200/1556409600
https://i.imgur.com/01v0lfS.png - labelled as 6.5 keys
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/eHc8id0.png
https://i.imgur.com/S5R4MZj.png
https://backpack.tf/item/2720746046 - 7 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7064505539 - 8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7432356015 - ~8.75 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3660744109 - ~8.75 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3495317228 - ~10.25 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6376854302 - ~10.7 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/4099555193 - 22 keys
Sales at:
6.5
7 (2x)
7.5
11
Keeping 6.5, due to two bot.tf purchases (both untraceable, however) in the last month at that price.
11 is an outlier, excluding 11.
Going with 6.5-7.5.