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https://marketplace.tf/items/463;5;u3010
February 23 - $20.99 / 1.81 = 11.6 keys
March 23 - $11.21, this is buy order price
March 30 - $23.39 / 1.79 = 13
April 6 - $12.00, this is buy order price
April 14 - $21.99 and $22.59 / 1.77 = 12.4 and 12.7
April 23 - $24.70 / 1.79 = 13.8
April 27 - $24.70 and $29.00 / 1.80 = 13.7 and 16.1
April 28 - $29.99 / 1.80 = 16.6
https://i.imgur.com/LUDobHn.png
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=463&q=5&ef=Mega+Strike&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0
bot.tf
90 days:
4 sales for 12 keys (2-21, 4-5, 4-19, 4-21)
1 sale for 13 keys (4-21)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416282143#!/compare/1553644800/1553731200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1553644800/1553731200
Possibly 15 keys? Histories don't show up in buyer's so it likely came from a bot but I can't be sure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1553558400/1553644800
Bulk or a quickbuy
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203407172#!/compare/1550880000/1551484800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993422884#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000
11 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215288299#!/compare/1543708800/1556582400
I don't know
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105684166#!/compare/1552089600/1554076800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068502951#!/compare/1552089600/1552953600
SCM
Looking at premium, this thing goes into bots a lot.
Sales:
11, 11.6, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12.4, 12.7, 13, 13, 13.7, 13.8, 16.1, 16.6
Although the 16 key sales were quite recent, bots frequently have sold this item for 12 and 13 keys.
Going with 11-14 keys on this, excluding 16.1 and 16.6 as high outliers.
https://backpack.tf/item/7413611898 - Gambled a bunch
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873165470#!/compare/1557360000/1557446400 - 9 Keys
https://backpack.tf/item/2216295083 - Gambled a bunch afterwards
https://marketplace.tf/items/463;5;u3010 - Sold for $29.99 and $33
Interesting that there actually are more marketplace sales for 16 and 18... maybe 12-16 could be an actual range here. Will wait a little more before I resuggest or something like that. I'll await a mod response as well.
Thank you for providing those sales.
11 is somewhat old now, and was fairly old when this was made. I'd support 11 being low, but I'm not sure either if 16 should be included.
Suppose we can see what happened to the seller at 15 Keys -> https://imgur.com/a/MpQgFr8
Market has shifted further downwards. Looks fine