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Sale 1:
Sold for 12 keys (Buyer’s end)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1547251200/1547337600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234831480#!/compare/1547337600/1547424000
https://backpack.tf/item/830285449
X = 12
Sale 2:
Sold to a bot for 10 keys + 1 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389276433#!/compare/1551571200/1552176000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890548167#!/compare/1552003200/1552176000
https://backpack.tf/item/194947129
X = 10
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/180;5;u7
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-30 - $20.49 / $1.8 = 11.38 keys
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-26 - $22.33 / $1.79 = 12.47 keys
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-03-05 - $25.73 / $1.79 = 14.37 keys
$16 went to a buy order, excluding.
X = 14
X = 12
X = 11
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/830285449 (#1)
https://backpack.tf/item/497227566 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/446290196 - marketplace
Bulk for Planets Brotherhood
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234831480#!/compare/1548288000/1548633600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126679929#!/compare/1548201600/1548374400
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/aT6PXyh.png
https://backpack.tf/item/194947129 - ~12 keys
Sales at:
11
12 (2x)
14
Seller at 12, and the sale at 14 was a marketplace sale. Excluding 14. Had 14 have been an actual pure sale, it wouldn’t have been excluded.
Going with 11-12.
I don't think calling it a marketplace sale is sufficient justification for making it an outlier.
Marketplace sales like this are usually always way too high (probably) due to the lack of tax being included, and the 2+ week-old seller at ~12 here supports that. This should be no different to excluding item sales that are higher than current sellers (hence the "actual pure sale" statement in the suggestion). I do recall you stating that you want to give pure sales a higher priority a couple years ago, and I don't think this should be an exception.
I also checked for a B/O, but bot.tf listings doesn't have any snapshots of this item. On top of that, there's currently another seller on marketplace for a little less than $3 cheaper than the 14 key sale.
https://marketplace.tf/items/180;5;u7
https://backpack.tf/item/446290196
Also, on an unrelated note, I realize i forgot to include the bot purchase at 10 in the sales summary section.
All that is fair on low tier hats - just didn't want people to get a general impression that marketplace sales are outliers. I am blind to where / how sales occurred. I only determine outliers but their deviation from the mean. Having said that, I agree that on low tier hats marketplace sales tend to be outliers.