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Sale 1:
Sold for 9 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1548201600/1548288000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078731479#!/compare/1545004800/1550448000
https://backpack.tf/item/1782436572
X = 9
Sale 2:
Sold for 8 keys + 2 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1552262400/1552348800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063872254#!/compare/1552262400/1552435200
https://backpack.tf/item/6816214002
X = 8
Sale 3:
Sold for 6 keys + ~2 keys in items (labelled price on the RL is non-festivized, and squid lid has scm/marketplace sales for higher
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063872254#!/compare/1552521600/1552608000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198862100345#!/compare/1552521600/1552608000
https://backpack.tf/item/6816214002
X = 8
Sale 4:
Sold to a bot for 7 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134538517#!/compare/1552694400/1552780800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1552694400/1552780800
https://backpack.tf/item/6816214002
No bot.tf stats because it was a generic buy order most likely
X = 7.5
Sale 5:
Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 30 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078731479#!/compare/1552953600/1553040000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1552867200/1552953600
https://backpack.tf/item/1782436572
X = 7.5
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/6816214002 (#1 & #2, the rest were gambled)
#1
Untraceable, only 7 keys match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129230935#!/compare/1551052800/1551139200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1550966400/1551052800
I’m certain the trade would’ve been ~7.5, but we can’t see the ref here.
#2
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198862100345#!/compare/1552521600/1552608000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134538517#!/compare/1552521600/1552608000
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/RjHJyS3.png
https://backpack.tf/item/1782436572 - 9 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6816214002 - 9 keys
Sales at:
7.5 (2x)
8 (2x)
9
Going to keep 7.5, given that out high end is based off a sale to someone that re-sold to a bot for less a month later (which should be fine to use, as the hat is dropping), and given how common sales at, or around that price are.
Going with 7.5-9.