Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by seVen
~$0.04
Unique Refined Metal
972 votes up
74 votes down
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Refined Metal

Probably the last time we're gonna raise ref, unless Valve do sth about it, but...

we all know the odds of that.


New price: 0.04$


Proof:


Marketplace.tf key sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key


Most common sell prices in the last 3 days are 1.76$ - 1.77$.

After removing fees we're left with:

1.76$*0.9 = ~1.58$

1.77$*0.9 = ~1.59$


Marketplace.tf ref sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal

https://imgur.com/a/sQ0iwDY


Sales are currently at 0.04$.


PayPal Sales

Seller #1:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/38397-frosts-buying-keys-150-usd-paypal-trusted-~-no-rep-needed/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198061836787

Bought 39 keys for 1.50$ each.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/38399-frosts-key-shop-189-paypalbtcethltcxmr-per-key-trusted/?tab=comments#comment-415492

Sold 75 keys for 1.89$ each.


Seller #2:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/55118-buying-keys-for-paypal-148-fees-on-me-305-bptf-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197997268820

Bought 100 keys for 1.55$ each.


Seller #3:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/62003-keys-for-155-and-backpacks-via-paypal-tons-of-rep-trusted-trader/?tab=comments#comment-615250

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040898430

Bought ~1,100 keys for 1.55$ each.

Bought 52 keys for 1.44$ each.


Seller #4:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68937-backpacks-quicksell-unusuals-and-keys-at-150/?tab=comments#comment-612426

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040812694

Bought 162 keys for 1.50$ each.


Seller #5:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/67993-selling-mann-co-keys-158/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197976524938

Sold ~500 keys for 1.60$ each.


Seller #6:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69254-selling-69-keys-for-165-each-you-cover-fees/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198253093948

Sold 123 keys for 1.65$ each.


Seller #7:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68890-buying-keys-for-156usd-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793444

Bought 200 keys for 1.56$ each.


_________________________________________________________


SUMMARY


Key sales:

1.44$

1.50$

1.55$

1.56$

1.58$

1.59$

1.60$

1.65$

1.89$


1.89$ is a high outlier.

_________________________________________________________


Keyprice in ref is 42.88-43 ref.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c30edfc44325a75ae3ef5ac


Convert that into the price per ref:

1.44$ / 43 ref = ~0.033 $/ref

1.50$ / 43 ref = ~0.035 $/ref

1.55$ / 43 ref = ~0.036 $/ref

1.56$ / 43 ref = ~0.036 $/ref

1.58$ / 43 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.59$ / 43 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.60$ / 43 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.65$ / 43 ref = ~0.038 $/ref


Mp.tf key sales with fees included would be:

1.76$ / 43 ref = ~0.041 $/ref

1.77$ / 43 ref = ~0.041 $/ref


Mp.tf ref sales:

0.04 $/ref


0.033 looks like an outlier. If we wanna be perfectly exact 1.44$ / 42.94 = 0.03354, which actually rounds to 0.034, but only ~50 keys sold at 1.44$, so let's exclude that.

Nothing supports 0.03$ anymore, best would be a range of 0.035-0.04, but that's not possible.

Keep in mind most key sales are on marketplace.tf (0.037$/ref - 0.041$/ref).

Ref sales are at 0.04$, so let's roll with that.


Going with 0.04$.


Feel free to add proof to support or counter my new price.

              Since 12/21 I've sold about 3446 ref so far.

              - > About 3300 of those ref were sold for 0.04.

              - > About 100-150 ref for 0.05 when they jumped up.


              There were even buy orders at 0.04$ in the 250+ range when they had jumped up. So the lower end being 0.04$ is supported. There is a range of 5k+ ref being sold at 0.04$ everyday, so it does agree with a raise. The range to include 0.05$ I would consider, but I'm not sure if there is enough sales at that price point.

                barely any at 0.05$.

                Ref price is not only set by ref sales, but also (and mainly) by key sales divided by key/ref ratio and most key sales are around ~0.037-0.041, so 0.05$ won't be included. If ref regularely sells for 0.05$ instead of 0.04$, it could be included.

                  Yeah it makes sense to not include 0.05$ right now. But also ref -> key is always weird in cash pricing I feel. Because after tax, ref>key through sales.


                  But 100% 0.04 should be the new standard. Enough sales to support it.

                  i can spot a downwards trend on marketplace.tf.

                  Keys at 1.75$ and 42.88ref.

                  Would still be 0.037$ - 0.041$.

                    refs still goin for 0.04 though? None for sale any lower

                      0.05$ Now.

                        Majority of sales are still at 0.04$.

                        ~1,800 at 0.04 compared to 575 at 0.05.

                          Mh dunno, at this time ref sales alone is at a shocking 0.05$, but still key price is 0.04$~ishy.

                          If we get some good prices proof on marketplace.tf (even if there is), we could up it to $0.04-0.05.

                              This suggestion makes a couple thousand dollar difference in my backpack. Same with others thats why it matters.

                                  I agree with you on this. Keys are a much more stable currency to value backpacks at since their price is set in stone by Valve. It may be important to change from 0.03-0.04 to 0.05, but this change seems so small.