Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by seVen
~$0.027
Unique Refined Metal
972 votes up
74 votes down
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Refined Metal

Probably the last time we're gonna raise ref, unless Valve do sth about it, but...

we all know the odds of that.


New price: 0.04$


Proof:


Marketplace.tf key sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key


Most common sell prices in the last 3 days are 1.76$ - 1.77$.

After removing fees we're left with:

1.76$*0.9 = ~1.58$

1.77$*0.9 = ~1.59$


Marketplace.tf ref sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal

https://imgur.com/a/sQ0iwDY


Sales are currently at 0.04$.


PayPal Sales

Seller #1:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/38397-frosts-buying-keys-150-usd-paypal-trusted-~-no-rep-needed/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198061836787

Bought 39 keys for 1.50$ each.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/38399-frosts-key-shop-189-paypalbtcethltcxmr-per-key-trusted/?tab=comments#comment-415492

Sold 75 keys for 1.89$ each.


Seller #2:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/55118-buying-keys-for-paypal-148-fees-on-me-305-bptf-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197997268820

Bought 100 keys for 1.55$ each.


Seller #3:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/62003-keys-for-155-and-backpacks-via-paypal-tons-of-rep-trusted-trader/?tab=comments#comment-615250

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040898430

Bought ~1,100 keys for 1.55$ each.

Bought 52 keys for 1.44$ each.


Seller #4:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68937-backpacks-quicksell-unusuals-and-keys-at-150/?tab=comments#comment-612426

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040812694

Bought 162 keys for 1.50$ each.


Seller #5:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/67993-selling-mann-co-keys-158/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197976524938

Sold ~500 keys for 1.60$ each.


Seller #6:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69254-selling-69-keys-for-165-each-you-cover-fees/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198253093948

Sold 123 keys for 1.65$ each.


Seller #7:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68890-buying-keys-for-156usd-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793444

Bought 200 keys for 1.56$ each.


_________________________________________________________


SUMMARY


Key sales:

1.44$

1.50$

1.55$

1.56$

1.58$

1.59$

1.60$

1.65$

1.89$


1.89$ is a high outlier.

_________________________________________________________


Keyprice in ref is 42.88-43 ref.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c30edfc44325a75ae3ef5ac


Convert that into the price per ref:

1.44$ / 43 ref = ~0.033 $/ref

1.50$ / 43 ref = ~0.035 $/ref

1.55$ / 43 ref = ~0.036 $/ref

1.56$ / 43 ref = ~0.036 $/ref

1.58$ / 43 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.59$ / 43 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.60$ / 43 ref = ~0.037 $/ref

1.65$ / 43 ref = ~0.038 $/ref


Mp.tf key sales with fees included would be:

1.76$ / 43 ref = ~0.041 $/ref

1.77$ / 43 ref = ~0.041 $/ref


Mp.tf ref sales:

0.04 $/ref


0.033 looks like an outlier. If we wanna be perfectly exact 1.44$ / 42.94 = 0.03354, which actually rounds to 0.034, but only ~50 keys sold at 1.44$, so let's exclude that.

Nothing supports 0.03$ anymore, best would be a range of 0.035-0.04, but that's not possible.

Keep in mind most key sales are on marketplace.tf (0.037$/ref - 0.041$/ref).

Ref sales are at 0.04$, so let's roll with that.


Going with 0.04$.


Feel free to add proof to support or counter my new price.

              Since 12/21 I've sold about 3446 ref so far.

              - > About 3300 of those ref were sold for 0.04.

              - > About 100-150 ref for 0.05 when they jumped up.


              There were even buy orders at 0.04$ in the 250+ range when they had jumped up. So the lower end being 0.04$ is supported. There is a range of 5k+ ref being sold at 0.04$ everyday, so it does agree with a raise. The range to include 0.05$ I would consider, but I'm not sure if there is enough sales at that price point.

                barely any at 0.05$.

                Ref price is not only set by ref sales, but also (and mainly) by key sales divided by key/ref ratio and most key sales are around ~0.037-0.041, so 0.05$ won't be included. If ref regularely sells for 0.05$ instead of 0.04$, it could be included.

                  Yeah it makes sense to not include 0.05$ right now. But also ref -> key is always weird in cash pricing I feel. Because after tax, ref>key through sales.


                  But 100% 0.04 should be the new standard. Enough sales to support it.

                i can spot a downwards trend on marketplace.tf.

                Keys at 1.75$ and 42.88ref.

                Would still be 0.037$ - 0.041$.

                  refs still goin for 0.04 though? None for sale any lower

                    0.05$ Now.

                      Majority of sales are still at 0.04$.

                      ~1,800 at 0.04 compared to 575 at 0.05.

                        Mh dunno, at this time ref sales alone is at a shocking 0.05$, but still key price is 0.04$~ishy.

                        If we get some good prices proof on marketplace.tf (even if there is), we could up it to $0.04-0.05.

                          Here's the thing. When you sell something under 0.05 on marketplace there's no fee. For people with automated trading bots, it's nothing to scoop up metal at 0.03 or 0.04 and resell at 0.05 for free pennies. I mean this suggest is literally arguing for a change of a half penny as it is...

                            This suggestion makes a couple thousand dollar difference in my backpack. Same with others thats why it matters.

                              If you value your items with keys the price of metal is irrelevant. Metal value is decided by key value, not the other way around.

                                I agree with you on this. Keys are a much more stable currency to value backpacks at since their price is set in stone by Valve. It may be important to change from 0.03-0.04 to 0.05, but this change seems so small.