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~215 keys
g.nrg
Unusual Patriot Peak Green Energy
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Sale 1: 109k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108014277#!/compare/1544227200/1544313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198804015732#!/compare/1544227200/1544313600

https://backpack.tf/item/6816123494


Arcana Bonk = Peak - 6k

115 - 6 = 109k


Sale 2: 70k?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108014277#!/compare/1544227200/1544313600

Excluding, other side is untrace


Sale 3: far outlier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292137994#!/compare/1537660800/1538006400

PE Hwnn (four sellers at 100) - miami tough stuff (51)

excluding


Sale 4: no mini on woolen

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292137994#!/compare/1538265600/1538611200

excluding, seems high, no mini on woolen with five months old price


Sale 5: 144k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182234714#!/compare/1543190400/1543449600

Arcana Shanter = peak - 6k


150 - 6 = 144

Seems high with seller 10 keys below 9 days after posting, excluding


Tam Shanter mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069388365#!/compare/1542240000/1542585600

Hellfire Glengary + Open Mind Fragger


Hellfire Glengary: 110k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132182386#!/compare/1541980800/1542067200


Fragger: 40k

https://imgur.com/a/z7MV61Q

Only other sales on fragger were this sale, bulk for a galactic starboard, and a 1:1 with a ring of fire classy capper that goes below quickbuys.


Sale 6: quickbuy on marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/30743;5;u9


Quickbuys at 96

Unsolds at 135, 149, and 159


Taking 109

Cheers

    So if 21 exists and someone trades >1< mixed offer it will be accepted from it?

      Six sales here, most just couldn't be used. This seems to be a pattern with the peak, a suggestion is accepted for it and the price will continue to fall. Look at Haunted Ghosts, for instance, accepted at 115 and seller at 85.

      Or, neutron star, accepted at 115 and seller at 105

      I included multiple sales, but multiple could not be used. Chances are the burning woolen would support this price if it were updated, but there are no recent sales on it.

      Sale 3 is an outlier due to it pricing either the GE peak or the Miami tough stuff very low in comparison to an already low hat with no name

      Sale 2 looks like a quicksell, as does sale 6

        I see, have you still asked Smile about the Bonk helm, if it was Qs or anything like that?

          He said he was going to quicksell it when working out our deal, by the looks of it he did.

          Happened in under 24 hours

            Nah, it wasn't a quicksell, I was the one that bought it

        How about 109-144?

          Too close to 149 for my comfort, and I tried for weeks on end to sell near 135

            You're generally really hard on your seller cutoffs. Sellers at 149 don't say 144 is impossible for instance.


            You already have another high outlier (which backs up the 144 data point actually). 109-144 incorporates the drop that the seller at 135 (which you mentioned but didn't capture which makes it hard for us to follow his activity) calls for, while still accounting for the two higher sales that also occurred. Since there's currently a seller at 135 too, I guess it still makes sense (though he's young).


            On your 70 key sale:

            https://backpack.tf/item/4114691315 this was also involved and resold for keys (39 match, that seems high tho, but it indicates he had return at the value of roughly 40 keys in addition to the 70). That sale backs up 109 by approximation, and shows it can sell at that amount relatively quickly.


            109-144 would capture a low end showing what it can sell for pretty quickly at this point, while 144 shows what happens if you're a little more patient. I'd favor that range as well.

              I've watched spoko, this is his fourth time relisting. He's been listing for a month now.

                It's best to capture a screenshot of current sellers (preferably incl. histories) if they're relevant for your range decisions; It's not that I don't trust you, but we want to be able to check these things ourselves (and since I mostly work on the backlog unless I have a lot of free time, I typically only see the info at the time I accept).


                In this case it does not really change my mind, though. Based on my earlier comment, I would favor the range over the flat value regardless of whether or not the 135 seller was already there when this was made. I've discussed it with other moderators, and they agree.