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the eldritch opening
Unusual Murderer's Motif The Eldritch Opening
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My first counter, because someone decided to suggest a mercenary grade hat with one sale.


"Sale 1:

Traded for a Death at Dusk Grimm Hatte

no recent sales, exclude


Sale 2:

1:1 for a Strange Eldritch Flame Duck Billed Hatypus (in date at 200)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1540598400/1540684800

Other compare link not clear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156483123#!/compare/1539993600/1540684800

Here is my trade offer history of the trade: https://gyazo.com/5dacd1ad13b98693179ca4467f7dbff8


Excluding this because of seller at 175.


^FROM Apoq


Sale 3: credit to torb

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1541462400/1541548800


Sold for PE Detective + 21k

PE detective:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1536969600/1537056000

48k


69k


Sale 4:


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241031938#!/compare/1541548800/1541635200


GE Boxcar + ~3k


GE Boxcar mini:


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304482224#!/compare/1539475200/1539561600


CHeart Chullo + 35k


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069825031#!/compare/1536796800/1537056000


GE Chullo = 130k


130-31 = 99


final sale = 102k


Sale 5:


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238998196#!/compare/1541203200/1541289600


Duped Burning Pillar


No mini available, no recent sales aside from this one.


Excluding


Sales:


69, 102, 200


Grim supports range, despite not used here.


200 clear outlier


69-102 it is

      First off, the fabricator isn't worth 18 keys, nor do the histories match.

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1541462400/1541548800

      This was the actual sale, for 69 keys.


      Second, why would I price a hat at 100 keys if it sold at 83?

          Higher sale. 200 is an outlier.

          Second, you can't prove 83 was a quicksell, nor can you prove 69 is a quicksell.

            I talked with apoq, he said the guy was quickselling

              Let me run this down very briefly:


              Sales are 69, 83, 102, and 175.

              We also have two sales that I'm unable to put numbers on, but considering Morning Glory grim hatte is selling at 90, I wouldn't argue that death at dusk is anywhere close to almost double it's twin effect.

              Towering pillar is the same way, the hat is valued at 115, but will a seller unsold for two weeks + at 94 keys, a duped would fall short of that too.

              That said, we have:


              69, 83, ~90, <94, 102, and 200


              Due to me unable to confirm the two middle values, they are speculative, but the fourth is guaranteed to be less than 94 keys, which brings up the obvious question.

              If 83 is a quicksell, why was a hat that's valued at less than 94 keys not considered a quicksell?

              For that matter, why is 90 not a quicksell? They sold in around the same timeframes, looking at the histories.


              69-102 incorporates three confirmed sales, a guaranteed yet unconfirmed sale, and a likely speculative sale. 200 is still an outlier here due to a seller at 175.


              Basically if 83 is a quicksell, prove 69 is a quicksell, and we can rediscuss. As of now, the range supports five? sales broadly.

            and how many days were they traded after being tradable? ... prolly should look at that :/ the one was within 2 days from the unboxer so that's pretty obvious lol

    Low end is definitely low here

      Low end is low. High end is high. I think there still aren't enough sales to make a solid price on a hat with such a hyped effect. Just a bit too all over the place at the moment. Especially with a range of 69-102 it is just seems unclear.

        "I think there still aren't enough sales to make a solid price"

        "High end is high"


        You priced this hat at 200 with one sale.

          That's true. Just was the only sales at the time and it was requested by the guy who got it.

        Now that I look over it I agree with your suggestion for 70-100