Price Suggestion
~92.5 keys
the eldritch opening
Unusual Murderer's Motif The Eldritch Opening
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51 votes down
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My first counter, because someone decided to suggest a mercenary grade hat with one sale.


"Sale 1:

Traded for a Death at Dusk Grimm Hatte

no recent sales, exclude


Sale 2:

1:1 for a Strange Eldritch Flame Duck Billed Hatypus (in date at 200)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1540598400/1540684800

Other compare link not clear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156483123#!/compare/1539993600/1540684800

Here is my trade offer history of the trade: https://gyazo.com/5dacd1ad13b98693179ca4467f7dbff8


Excluding this because of seller at 175.


^FROM Apoq


Sale 3: credit to torb

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1541462400/1541548800


Sold for PE Detective + 21k

PE detective:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1536969600/1537056000

48k


69k


Sale 4:


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241031938#!/compare/1541548800/1541635200


GE Boxcar + ~3k


GE Boxcar mini:


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304482224#!/compare/1539475200/1539561600


CHeart Chullo + 35k


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069825031#!/compare/1536796800/1537056000


GE Chullo = 130k


130-31 = 99


final sale = 102k


Sale 5:


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238998196#!/compare/1541203200/1541289600


Duped Burning Pillar


No mini available, no recent sales aside from this one.


Excluding


Sales:


69, 102, 200


Grim supports range, despite not used here.


200 clear outlier


69-102 it is

      First off, the fabricator isn't worth 18 keys, nor do the histories match.

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1541462400/1541548800

      This was the actual sale, for 69 keys.


      Second, why would I price a hat at 100 keys if it sold at 83?

          Higher sale. 200 is an outlier.

          Second, you can't prove 83 was a quicksell, nor can you prove 69 is a quicksell.

            I talked with apoq, he said the guy was quickselling

              Let me run this down very briefly:


              Sales are 69, 83, 102, and 175.

              We also have two sales that I'm unable to put numbers on, but considering Morning Glory grim hatte is selling at 90, I wouldn't argue that death at dusk is anywhere close to almost double it's twin effect.

              Towering pillar is the same way, the hat is valued at 115, but will a seller unsold for two weeks + at 94 keys, a duped would fall short of that too.

              That said, we have:


              69, 83, ~90, <94, 102, and 200


              Due to me unable to confirm the two middle values, they are speculative, but the fourth is guaranteed to be less than 94 keys, which brings up the obvious question.

              If 83 is a quicksell, why was a hat that's valued at less than 94 keys not considered a quicksell?

              For that matter, why is 90 not a quicksell? They sold in around the same timeframes, looking at the histories.


              69-102 incorporates three confirmed sales, a guaranteed yet unconfirmed sale, and a likely speculative sale. 200 is still an outlier here due to a seller at 175.


              Basically if 83 is a quicksell, prove 69 is a quicksell, and we can rediscuss. As of now, the range supports five? sales broadly.

                I sold mine for about 143 keys

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241031938#!/compare/1541548800/1541635200

                    Ignore the 3 keys from me, that was a bp premium payment

                      g/e boxcar def needs a mini but supports higher.

                      also pretty sure i saw at least 1 bought on scm for ~100 keys within a couple hours of it listing

                        I'm new to unusual trading, what does a mini mean

                          Mini-Suggestion afaik. You can't use items in a suggestion that are out if date - shown by a red triangle on the unusual page (e.g. https://backpack.tf/unusual/Geisha%20Boy) - so you have to make a (mini) suggestion for them first before you are able to use them in your current suggestion.

                            Thank you.

                          Green Energy Boxcar Bomber is not 140 keys.


                          As I put in the evidence for my price, it sold for this:

                          https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304482224#!/compare/1539475200/1539561600


                          Which then sold for this

                          https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069825031#!/compare/1536796800/1537056000


                          Only the Green Energy Chullo is updated, so that's what I'm basing the price off of here.

                          Your bomber should be worth around 99 keys, not 140.

                          This sale was where I got 102 from

                              Overpay doesn't play a factor into price suggesting, large or small.

                              I don't know why im revisiting this but you have your math wrong, the ge boxcar sold for the heart chullo plus 35 keys, the chullo and 30 keys sold for the ge chullo at 130 keys, that would put the boxcar at 135 keys

                    and how many days were they traded after being tradable? ... prolly should look at that :/ the one was within 2 days from the unboxer so that's pretty obvious lol

            Low end is definitely low here

              Low end is low. High end is high. I think there still aren't enough sales to make a solid price on a hat with such a hyped effect. Just a bit too all over the place at the moment. Especially with a range of 69-102 it is just seems unclear.

                  That's true. Just was the only sales at the time and it was requested by the guy who got it.

                Now that I look over it I agree with your suggestion for 70-100

                  New pure sale here. I don't think it counts since I see a seller for lower but food for thought I guess: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/NaN/1544227200

                    Open mind motif + logo brain

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218628708#!/compare/1542844800/1542931200

                    motif resold for an abduction trans and has sellers at 20, going to be around the lower regions of the range here

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218628708#!/compare/1542931200/1543017600


                    Sold for what looks like 50 keys

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072140772#!/compare/1544313600/1544400000


                    Quicksold

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1542758400/1542844800


                    Presumably sold to a buyer for 50

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146749756#!/compare/1542758400/1542844800

                    (was the dude that paid the GE boxcar btw)


                    Burning brain bowl from the looks of it

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1543881600/1543968000

                    was then resold to a buy order and its selling there now for 68


                    Sold for beams aviator (just out of date)

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286257338#!/compare/1543795200/1543881600


                    The aviator sold for the warmer and the taunt and then resold for the hephaestos

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993919776#!/compare/1543795200/1543881600

                    It also sold to scrap, so thats no help


                    Sold for that scatter

                    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059355061#!/compare/1543104000/1543190400

                    Like the aviator, the price of that is just outdated. Taking current on both hats would mean new sales at ~76 and ~90


                    And then theres the pure sale from the comments below, which sold literally while available for much less.


                    New sales now put the total sales at:

                    50

                    50? presumably

                    ~68

                    ~69

                    ~76*

                    ~75-80 ish (first sale I mentioned)

                    (83? I dont see that sale but its referenced in the comments)

                    ~90*

                    The box sale which I suppose needs to be re-evaluated since the mini values don't seem to add up

                    120

                    And the duck sale which is very likely just an indication that duck is way too high, but either way an outlier.

                    * means a mini is required thats either not possible (or I should say really difficult) (aviator) or that I havent checked yet (scatter).

                    The issue here is most certainly not whether or not 69 is too low - it's not. the high end is gonna be tricky though. Id see if more is available on the boxcar. Id be really uncomfortable to set the high end here based on a pure sale that happened while the exact same hat was for sale for less, and it'd make the range insanely wide, but with the boxcar backing up that data point with the mini provided, it's gonna be hard to motivate its exclusion.


                    However, there's also the issue that the boxcar person resold it to a buy order, which makes that sale unreliable as well (especially for a high end). At this point I'd probably wait to see what happens to the 100 seller. Without it, the 50 sales would fall off as low outliers, the boxcar falls off along with one of the 50 sales, 120 seems really high seeing how that sold while 100 was also an option and the duck is out of the question here. That means that based on the above you'd be left with a high end based on a just outdated hat which is hard to mini. Technically you could try to mini the two sales I mentioned above for it but both contain new and probably hard to appraise hats.

                      The 100 seller recently dropped their price to 80. Would be best to wait for that to sell. All the other sales seem low, high, or hard to mini/unusable like you have shown.

                      Closing here based on the above. Going to have to wait for that seller to resell, or for the aviator to get a better mini.