Price Suggestion
~365 keys
morning
Unusual Polar Pullover Morning Glory
60 votes up
10 votes down
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I favor the other suggestion here actually. 450 is very likely an outlier seeing how far it went over the BO, especially considering there are 3 current sellers at or below 450 (one at 365 which is currently hidden).


I guess Im not opposed to leaving out 280, but in my eyes 450 should be treated as its high outlier counterpart

    While the 450 sale is much higher than the other sales, it was b/o capped, and I think it's a fairly decent example of what an item like this can get in items

      280 is definitely too low, at least four of the quickbuyer classifieds are at 280 or higher. ((One is at 310 at the time of writing)). (https://i.imgur.com/oU7D36z.png) The 280 sale was likely a quicksell.


      Conversely the 450 B/O capped sale, hypothetically if the owner immediately quicksold all the items received in the trade (buyer for Lumbricus at 85 at the time, see the snapshot here https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5bbed1fccf6c755047402a8c) Hellmet at 30 (current suggestion excluded a 29 buyer which was the high outlier at the time, but there is now a buyer for 30 and two at 29 (https://i.imgur.com/3viLXyR.png)), stash at 24.3 and a current suggestion to raise it , non-descrepit buyer for the LS at 9 although scrap.tf probably pays more as they pay 10.5 for 16-17 key hat, (https://i.imgur.com/92D6bwf.png) they would still make off with AT LEAST 358-362+ pure, so no it's not unfeasible to assume they could have made off with more than 365 pure if they put a bare minimum amount of effort in, as I don't know EXACTLY what the scrap.tf bots pay for the stash, lucky and hellmet (but it may be more than their respective quickbuyers.)


      As for the (hidden, and probably by now unlisted) 365 seller, I would have bought the one I did from that seller but they set up their listing so you had to add them to offer, and they did not accept my request after some time. I added the 400 seller to offer 365 and he accepted.


      I think a refresh isn't off the table, but I don't expect to get a pure offer for a while, because few have 450 keys laying around and the ones that do are most likely trying to quickbuy other hats. Also not that it matters hugely but I've had a couple offers well over the 400 mark (Scorching HWNN (287.5, outdated, but burning recently priced at 290)+ Scorching Bonk Helm (recent at 70) + AF One Man Army (48, seller at 70?) + Aussie Sniper (basically 20 pure, also had spec ks, proof here (https://i.imgur.com/tO3LqTQ.png, trade is unavailable as he sold the sniper the same day I think)) which comes to 425. I realise an offer is not a sale- I would have considered it but the bloke who sent the offer is marked on Steamrep (I can prove this as well, but I will withhold unless requested for respect of their privacy), so I had to decline either way. I have other offers over 365 but most of them are unpriced or overpriced offers that I can't in good conscience stick a fair price on.


      My opinion is probably invalid since I own the hat I'm trying to get a raise on, but I figure providing some evidence of what offers this kind of hat can get is better than nothing.

        No worries; additional info provided by owners can definitely prove valuable. Owning one definitely does not mean everything you say is wrong :P


        Current buyers certainly counter 280 - I'm usually cautious ruling out sales based on buyers that were created after the suggestion was made, but with enough buyers surpassing 280 it definitely shouldn't be included here.


        Offers can definitely help support ranges or values, but similar to sales with scammers, offers from scammers aren't really usable for suggestions. Scammers have a hard time trading because there are consequences for trading with them, and as such, they'll typically have to offer more than others to get their hands on specific items.


        At this point I can still see this going either way, and this will probably be open for a while whilst being under discussion. Feel free to update us with further offers you receive that could support the suggested range. I can't outright guarantee they'll tip the scales in the suggestion's advantage, but every piece of info can help :P

      Sellers have remained unsuccessful at 400 (two of them for about 2 weeks, 1 of which went inactive recently). The lumbricus lid is wonky as it is (see my comment there). At this point, I still support the other suggestion over this one.


      New sales:

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068064085#!/compare/1540944000/1541030400

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254285639#!/compare/1540944000/1541030400 Ge stash + AF hwah, even lower

      The other items dont match; if they were involved the sale would roughly back up 365


      Unusable due to lack of proper timewarp gibus mini (that has 1 insanely high and 1 insanely low sale, both from the same user

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254285639#!/compare/1541116800/1541203200


      Sellers support that 450 is going to be high here, and the first new sale either supports or provides a low outlier counterpart (aside from the one we already had).


      Based on the above, I'm going to accept the other suggestion at 365