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Nah-ah I'll keep it updated. Too good of an unusual to become outdated.
Marketplace.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/339;5;u13
Key prices: http://manicbot.me/keyprice.txt
520$ / 1.98$ = 262.6 keys = 263 keys
470.11$ / 1.97$ = 238.6 keys = 239 keys
700$ / 1.96$ = 357.1 keys = 357 keys
Backpack.tf
Hat 1:
Sale 1:
Sold for a Scorching Flames Le Party Phantom (135 keys) + Burning Flames Fancy Fedora (Mini below) + 97 keys + 17 keys in items
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093585253#!/compare/1525564800/1525910400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309178418#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400
No Mini available for the Fedora, excluding.
Hat 2:
Sale 1:
Sold for a Blizz Antlers (330 keys) + Screaming Tiger Zoomin’ Broom (18.5 keys) + 36 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1526774400/1526860800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288368461#!/compare/1526774400/1526860800
Mini for the Antlers: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b314f0344325a555a2b8204
Taking 330 + 18.5 + 36 = 384.5 keys
Hat 3:
Sale 1:
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103489234#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400
Sake 2 = invalid
Untraceable.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010059325#!/compare/1528848000/1529107200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234128068#!/compare/1529020800/1529107200
Hat 4:
Sale 1:
Bulk for a Golden Pan
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106897791#!/compare/1525737600/1526688000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198869057#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000
Sale 2:
Sold for a Haunted Phantasm Killer Exclusive + Steaming Pugilist's Protector + 10 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198869057#!/compare/1527811200/1527897600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118859180#!/compare/1527811200/1527897600
Better usable for the KE.
Sale 3:
Sold with 80 keys for a Disco Beat Down Antlers (402.5 keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118859180#!/compare/1528675200/1528761600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1528675200/1528761600
402.5 keys - 80 keys = 322.5 keys = 323 keys
Sale 4:
Sold for 275 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1528934400/1529020800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036445124#!/compare/1528934400/1529020800
Sale 5:
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036445124#!/compare/1529107200/1529193600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1529107200/1529193600
Sale 6:
Sold for a Strange Duped Purple Energy Bonk Boy + Sunbeams Ye Olde Baker Boy + Burning Flames Napper's Respite + 25 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1529539200/1529625600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062711407#!/compare/1529539200/1529625600
No Mini for the Bonk Boy available, excluding.
Hat 5:
Sale 1:
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044887544#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000
Sale 2:
1 for 1 for a Burning Flames Rotation Sensation (Mini below)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046921199#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000
Mini for the Rotation Sensation: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b338ae5cf6c7521f508c2a4
Taking 312.5 keys.
Sale 3:
Sold for a MG Gibus, Flies Muffs, Scorching Tundra Top, Blizz Stove Pipe, Screaming Tiger I See You, Showstopper Shred Alert, Holy Grail Soldier's Requiem, Spec KS Aussie Sniper Rifle, Collector's Original and ~19 keys in items
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046921199#!/compare/1529452800/1529539200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079294342#!/compare/1528761600/1529539200
Way too many unusuals, Gibus’s only sale.
Excluding.
Hat 6:
Sale 1:
Sold with 19 keys for a Bonzo Hazmattenhatten.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1529366400/1529452800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094819444#!/compare/1529366400/1529452800
Will use this one for the Haz, cause it's the only sale.
Sales: 239 / 263 / 275 / 313 / 323 / 357 / 384
I'd go for 310-380.
Buyers are as high as 276 so excluding 275, 263 and 239.
Provide supplemental proof, counter proof or report recent sales for this hat in the comments!
Have a good one!
Mini for Fedora - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1524787200/1524873600 - Sold for a Cloud 9 Federal Casemaker (Unsolds at 54) + 50 Keys = ~104, Round to 105
Makes Sale 1) Hat 1) 354 Keys which fits the range
"Sake 2" Hat 3) Was actually for 253 Keys, low
Buyout for Hat 4) Sale 3) Was 285 Keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29672852
There's a Mini for the Bonk for Hat 4 Sale 6 -
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043566764#!/compare/1529539200/1529625600 - Sold with 80 Keys for a Frostbite Killer's Kabuto (140, indate) + A Spellbound Honcho's Headgear (160, indate) = 220 Keys
New Sale - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152813004#!/compare/1529712000/1529884800 - Sold for a Duped Scorching Flames Villain's Veil (410) + A Burning Flames Batter's Helmet (~85) + 1 Key, High (Afterall that!)
Perhaps mini for the Veil here - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1522195200/1522281600 - Needs a Micro for the Duped Bonk though
Micro for Bonk - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1525305600/1525392000 = 282 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1528761600/1529020800 - Sold for a Burning Flames Tough Stuff Muffs (535)
Both sales are high/low so taking midpoint of 410 Keys (when rounded)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198247640596#!/compare/1525996800/1526169600 - Bulky
Perhaps need to make the low-end 285 because of that Buyout cap, it seems low though Edit: I have no idea what the range should be, 384 could be too high and this could be 285 - 355?
Sold Veil for C9 Antlers + TF Logo Crones but the crones is kinda outdated so if you could find a mini for that
Threre are buyers for 281 Keys Pure, I think 285 would be a little low here
I'd be ok with reworking this if sales become outdated. Right now I can't fix anything as I'm on Vacation and I have tons of activities so not a lot of time for anything Trading and Suggestion related. However I will look into most of my open suggestions in order to rework them.
285 as mentioned by lemons is gonna be too low here, there are buyers hovering 305. So that sale is getting thrown out.
Nothing really proving that 385 should be an outlier, there's only one seller for less and its at 350 for a week - https://i.imgur.com/gNvlTlU.png
Recent sales
S1
Sold for a Ghastly Ghosts Jr Team Captain (mini for 248 below) + 92 Keys - 340 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234128068#!/compare/1530921600/1531008000
Mini for the TC
Sold for 248 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234128068#!/compare/1531440000/1531526400
Sale above falls right into range.
S2
Bulk deal for a Harvest Blighted Beak, can use there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239654786#!/compare/1534032000/1534204800
S3
Sold for a Searing Prancers (14) + Cloudy Grimme Hatte (Outdated at 98, no minis) + Nebula Universal Translator (203) + 55 keys = ~370
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287940798#!/compare/1534204800/1534464000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368868701#!/compare/1534291200/1534464000
Mini for Grimme
Has no minis and only a seller for 200 which cant be used. Taking old value for the moment
With no mini on the Grimme we can call this sale support for the high end since chances are it would come near it,
S4
Sold for 319 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234128068#!/compare/1533600000/1533686400
https://backpack.tf/item/203518545
Hat is missing in compare but matches histories. Falls into range.
S5
No idea was some bulk - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106189896#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400
S6
Sold for a bunch of hats and aussies that need minis, gonna take current price for sake of checking if its gonna fall near range
The Ooze Hive Minder (61) + Misty Skull Swagman's Swatter (67) + Misty Skull Tippler's Tricorne (60) + Purple Energy Le Party Phantom (113) + Green Energy Détective Noir (48) + ~70 keys in aussies + items = 420
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1530748800/1530835200
Ok so chances are with correct minis this sale would fall near 380 im assuming so again support.
So after all it seems the suggested range is fine, we have more sales supporting the low and the high end, accepting this.