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Sellers price around 3 refined
Backpack:
https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Frenchman%27s+Beret&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&killstreak_tier=0
Outpost:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27238849
wouldn't use the outpost link as the trade is 2 years old and the guy listed them as 'level 99' items
That outpost link is 2 years old, not to mention you have to include some sales. Sellers don't count, and buyers can only be used to support sales.