Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by manic
~$0.03
Unique Refined Metal
186 votes up
153 votes down
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This suggestion was accepted by Teeny Tiny Cat.

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Comments

Resuggest - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/596dd36ccf6c75268c7ca726#comment-596e11b4cf6c755c5a208efc - comments here by polar and teeny, pasted at bottom.


A refined metal suggestion? Better downvote.


This suggestion is made with the new refined metal pricing system ( https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/61165-refined-suggestions-and-site-usd-values/ ).

Keys are currently 30 refined.


Sales:


Marketplace.tf (I'm taking off the tax as people are willing to pay extra on marketplace.tf for the security. The paypal sales indicate this is the case, as people are buying keys there for around the prices people get on marketplace.The paypal sales indicate that the price should be lower that the marketplace.tf sales before tax, so the marketplace.tf sales don't have that much weight):

Format: amount sold, price (real price after taking marketplace.tf's 10% tax off)

So far today:

756 x $2.06 ($1.85)

1337 x $2.07 ($1.86)

122 x $2.08 ($1.87)

Yesterday:

230 x $2.03 ($1.83)

338 x $2.04 ($1.84)

1301 x $2.05 ($1.85)

704 x $2.06 ($1.85)

38 x $2.07 ($1.86)

2 days ago:

336 x $2.00 ($1.80)

170 x $2.03 ($1.83)

668 x $2.04 ($1.84)

1206 x $2.05 ($1.85)


These prices are typical of how much keys sell for, before this there is just a lot more repetition.


Paypal (or other payment method with little fees):

All of these users have sold/bought lots of keys and their reputation threads indicate that most of them have sold/bought keys recently.

This user is selling for $1.95 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28121958

This user is buying for $1.85 and selling for $1.95 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28871255

This user is selling for $1.90 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28744445

This user is selling for $2 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25063039

This user is buying for $1.80 and selling for $1.85 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29263267

This user is selling for $1.92 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29259918

This user is selling for $2 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23874511

This user is buying for $1.85 and selling for $2.10 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27591466

This user is selling for $1.89 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28665529

This user is selling for $1.95 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28842780

This user is buying for $1.80 - https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/47961-buying-tf2-keys-180-usd-via-paypal-i-pay-fees/

This user is buying for $1.80 - https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/57117-buying-backpacks-keys-18-tod-tickets-85-each-90-trust-paypal/

This user is selling for $1.84 (converted) - https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/61329-selling-tf2-keys-160-euro-each-skrill/


1.80/30 = 0.06

1.83/30 = 0.061

1.84/30 = 0.0613

1.85/30 = 0.0616

1.86/30 = 0.062

1.87/30 = 0.0623

1.89/30 = 0.063

1.90/30 = 0.063

1.92/30 = 0.064

1.95/30 = 0.065

2/30 = 0.066

2.10/30 = 0.07


Whilst there could be some discrepancies about the USD price of keys, all of the common prices divided by the amount of refined metal in a key round to 6 cents. Whilst there are some outliers, above $1.95 is quite uncommon, and $1.95 is exactly between 6 cents and 7 cents. Therefore, I'm pricing this at 6 cents because the majority of sales happen there.


I'd appreciate anybody backing this up with what they sell/buy keys for, but I'd imagine the results would be the same as this.


(Please note that refined sales on marketplace.tf cannot be used as they limit who can sell refined. This means that the people permitted to sell refined have a monopoly and artificially keep the price high. If everyone was allowed to sell refined, it is likely the price would drop to around 6 cents)


Comments by polar, reason for resuggest:


Gonna be a bit low here. I know a buyer looking for 600 keys (who has bought 3000+ keys from me) having trouble finding sellers for less than 1.95 USD. Taking keys at 1.80 here (6 cents X 30 ref per key) is going to be low for sure.


Successful sellers at $2.00:

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/38399-frosts-key-shop-199-per-key-trusted-paypal-bitcoin/

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/40370-naknaks-keys-199-or-%E2%82%AC188-no-rep-needed-any-currency-accepted-hundreds-in-stock/

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/57779-selling-tf2-keys-185-euro-each/


Successful sellers at 1.90:

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/30750-selling-keys-for-19166%E2%82%AC-paypal/

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/61034-40-keys-for-paypal-195-each/


Buyers at 1.90-1.95 (not counting the person buying 600):

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/60320-h-paypal-w-buying-keys-190/

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/60348-buying-tf2-keys-for-195-paypal-get-cash-fast-fees-on-me/

https://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/61136-buying-tf2-keys-195-per/ - legit?


At the very least, this needs a range of 0.06-0.07


Comments by Teeny:


Sales at 1.95 and above still occur very regularly though, and a range of 0.06-0.07 would put 0.065 as the median. It'd also be a less drastic change from the previous price.