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Sale 1:
Sold for 12 keys + 16 ref (>0.5) in ~1 month
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1497484800/1497571200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348859145#!/compare/1497484800/1497571200
X = 13
Sale 2:
Sold for 12 keys + 14 ref (<0.5) in ~3 days
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070880686#!/compare/1493510400/1493596800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162307646#!/compare/1493424000/1493596800
X = 12
Sale 3:
Bulk for Ghosts YWN
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206642680#!/compare/1493164800/1493337600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070880686#!/compare/1493251200/1493337600
There were several other sales, two by the same bot in the first sale, however, I could not trace them at all.
Sellers:
15 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28682552 - 5 months
https://backpack.tf/u/76561198006544512
Sales at:
12
13
Sale at 12 sold kinda quickly, and is kinda countered by a buyer at 12:
http://i.imgur.com/Msr7igu.png
Excluding 12.
Going with 13 flat.