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Midnight Whirlwind Shred Alert, thanks A Delicious Cashew for telling me to round it off to a whole number.
As the main proof, I bought this Midnight Whirlwind off a friend of mine for 31 Creepy Crawly Keys. I ended up having to wait a week so I traded an unusual of mine to get the taunt early, then paid the full amount once the keys were tradable.
Creepy Crawly Keys are suggested at 1.1 keys
31 * 1.1 = 34.1 keys pure, rounding to 34.
Screenshots of trade history: http://imgur.com/a/OtuJF
At the time I was looking to buy this taunt from my friend there were listings for this exact effect - Midnight Whirlwind - on SCM, one being at $73.99 which did manage to sell, so i'll include that as a range for this suggestion.
73.99 / 2.49 = 29.714 keys pure, rounding to 30.
SCM sale: http://imgur.com/pPDs1RY
This is my first price suggestion so if I missed anything or if you have relevant evidence for this item feel free to let me know, cheers.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011649529#!/compare/1497571200/1497657600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057007857#!/compare/1497312000/1497657600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057007857#!/compare/1497657600/1497830400
histories show a different series of events. something doesn't add up :S
I think I have the item that proves the June 10th sale tho (June 11th in Australia) - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339762409#!/compare/1496966400/1497052800
As I stated in the suggestion as context, I gave my friend Mini my unusual (Tesla Coil Towering Titanium Pillar of Hats) so that I could get his Midnight Whirlwind Shred Alert early as the keys I had to pay him were temporarily untradable. Then, once the keys were tradable, I paid the 31 Creepy Crawly Keys to him and he returned my unusual. If you want context for the other items in the compared inventories I can give it, but they're completely irrelevant to this suggestion.
http://imgur.com/EqhY7ac
maybe some context to explain the 10 key difference, but that appears differently now
I'm fairly certain he bought ten extra Creepy Crawly keys himself from elsewhere so he could make a video; I only paid him 31.
so now you have both the hat AND the taunt and the 31 keys stayed with him is what you're sayin
nvm then. makes total sense. i should know better than to try and reason things out at 2 am after being up 2 days str8 fml
Ello again Adolf :) Can confirm this is how the arrangement went.
new sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258077701#!/compare/1498176000/1499558400 - sold for Mega Strike Taunt: Soldier's Requiem
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115471878#!/compare/1498003200/1498176000 - sold for Massed Flies Soldier's Stash
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339762409#!/compare/1496966400/1497052800 - Adolf's link, which helps confirm the SCM sale
http://imgur.com/a/TfoeN - 4 day old seller now for 32 keys
The Massed Flies Soldier's Stash sale Blaze mentions in the comments is interesting. Looked into the Stash a little bit.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100514826#!/compare/1494720000/1494806400 - Neutron Condor, ~48
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302616806#!/compare/1498348800/1498608000 - Duped GE Fedora, likely a bit less than clean's 48 key price
but
http://imgur.com/a/1NuRv - Mature seller for 36
Overall, the 3 month old price of 42 is more or less supported - could be a bit less with Fedora/Condor minis but not too much.
Judging by the distance from the other two sales and the 32 key seller for the Shred, I'm inclined to call the Stash sale an outlier. Suggested range seems fine here.