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Sellers:
http://imgur.com/a/E7udr - b/o: 34 keys (1 month)
Sold:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1491264000/1491350400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133042081#!/compare/1491264000/1491350400 - ?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28881914
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113188320#!/compare/1492387200/1492473600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171944770#!/compare/1490918400/1492387200 - sold for 2 Max's Severed Head (38) = 38 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170033247#!/compare/1492128000/1492387200 - bulk
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29208156
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068085798#!/compare/1496448000/1496534400 - sold for Collector's Professional Killstreak Original (22) = 22 keys (quicksold)
Conclusion:
sales at
22, 38seller at 34
taking 34-38 keys
Sale 1 was for 28 keys. The unusuals from the buyer were sold to ZtG | Ned Flanders, and then the keys were used to buy the Tyrant's
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28858967 ----- B/O was 28 as well.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28847514
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28841104 ----- Relisted several times, took a while to sell.
There are also other sales: 28 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1492473600/1492560000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064792880#!/compare/1492560000/1492819200
~20 or below
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133042081#!/compare/1491955200/1492128000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090956917#!/compare/1491955200/1492128000
Vivid Liq Lid (outdated at 40)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064792880#!/compare/1496102400/1496275200
And the bunch of untraceable quicksales here: https://backpack.tf/item/4576492594
You could try to find a mini on the Lid and see where it ends at, but with sales at ~20, 22, 28, 28 and 38, I would probably go with 28 flat.