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Sale 1:
Sold with a key for Stormy Towering Pillar of Hats (25) + Bubbling Mining Light (Mini at 17 below)
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153088409#!/compare/1483747200/1484092800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204824055#!/compare/1484006400/1484092800
X = 41
Sale 2:
Sold for Bubbling Hat with No Name + Spec. KS Aussie SMG (8) + ~5 keys in taunts + Strange Pro. KS Kukri (~2) + Strange Pro. KS Knife skin (~10 realistically)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28649842 - B/O of 40
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121050731#!/compare/1481155200/1481241600
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024735544#!/compare/1480982400/1481241600
Hat with No Name would have to be less than 15 keys to change the value of this sale.
X = 40 (Capped by B/O)
Sale 3:
Sold with 2 keys for Pro. KS Aussie Scattergun (34) + Strange Spec. KS Original (7)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28700037 - B/O of 40
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077399273#!/compare/1484006400/1484092800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136099561#!/compare/1483920000/1484611200
X = 40 (Capped by B/O)
Sale 4:
Sold for Silver Cyclone Buy a Life (Mini at 27 below) + Killstreak Aussie Axtinguisher (7) + 2 keys in pure/items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28694415 - B/O of 45
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184275421#!/compare/1483920000/1484092800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153088409#!/compare/1483747200/1484092800
X = 36
Sale 5:
Sold for Orbiting Fire Tough Stuff Muffs (30.5)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212625972#!/compare/1480118400/1480204800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121050731#!/compare/1480032000/1480118400
X = 31
Sale 6:
Sold for Terror-Watt Detective Noir (31)
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204824055#!/compare/1484179200/1484265600
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065331076#!/compare/1484179200/1484265600
X = 31
Sale 7:
Sold for 30 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28677384 - B/O of 30, re-listed from a B/O of 42. Total time of ~6 days at 30 keys (assuming the price wasn’t lowered)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024735544#!/compare/1483056000/1483142400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077399273#!/compare/1483056000/1483142400
X = 30
Sale 8:
Sold for Electrostatic Reggaelator
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091442194#!/compare/1479859200/1480118400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212625972#!/compare/1480032000/1480118400
Should be used to price the Reggae
Sale 9:
Sold for Blizzardy Storm El Jefe (Mini at 25 below) + Steaming Hotrod
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125760599#!/compare/1483142400/1483228800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163264838#!/compare/1483228800/1483315200
Could only find quicksales at 12 on the Hotrod, such as this one:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28636332 - B/O of 13
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070736816#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198270711812#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000
This should prove this sale to be close to the high-end, however.
Silver Cyclone Buy a Life Mini:
Sold for Green Black Hole Tin Topi (26) + 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28712432 - B/O of 28
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044394362#!/compare/1484179200/1484265600
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160337844#!/compare/1484179200/1484265600
X = 27
Blizzardy Jefe Mini:
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/588f30bbc440450e656209fb
Bubbling Mining Light Mini:
Sold for 17 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28666909 - No B/O here, selling for 17 on the classifieds, however.
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1483315200/1483401600
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099492309#!/compare/1483401600/1483488000
X = 17
Sellers:
30 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28746861 - 1 day, declined 30 pure.
Sales at:
30
31 (2x)
36
40 (2x)
41
And another sale at 37+ (Sale 9)
Sales seem somewhat more common in the 35+ region. Although, there is another sale that isn’t mention here, but is in here: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/588ded91e33877058a41127b - this sale will be 30 too.
Given that the current seller has already declined 30 pure, which was offered in a rather short amount of time, 30 may be considered low, making 31 look like a low outlier here.
Going to round 41 to 40. Most buyouts, if not all, seem to be at 40 or under.
Going with 36-40.
Feedback on the range would be appreciated, I’m not too sure if excluding 30-31 is a good idea here.
the seller also declined a Frostbite Bullet Buzz which is being priced with a pure sale at 34 - http://backpack.tf/suggestion/588e9c31c4404518b36eb54f
so yeah 30 and 31 are def low here. The range here is fine.