Price Suggestion
Refined Metal
Submitted by Salvage
~$0.027
Unique Refined Metal
55 votes up
45 votes down
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Comments

With keys currently being ~23 ref and their common trading point in cash still being ~1.85$ Refined Metal would probably be put solidly around 0.08$ flat, however since the amount of sellers @0.08 is very small at the moment I will have to go with a range of 0.08 - 0.09.


Outpost:

Sellers

@0.08

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28490712 - 115 in stock

@0.09

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26056979 - 2 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28398639 - 37 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28451797 - 221 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27679068 - 495 in stock

@0.095

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27930668 - 118 in stock

@0.10

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098 - 6 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28478113 - 135 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28486407 - 206 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28273758 - 210 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28336162 - 624 in stock

Buyers

@0.085

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18303623 - inactive by the looks of it (see the latest replies, the guy who offered said he didn't get a reply and never sold his ref)

@0.08

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27809636

@0.07

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28390862

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25699305

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28479670

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28518831


If you want to discuss the prices of Refined or the usage of Marketplace.tf go here: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/54622-refined-metal-pricepricing-marketplacetf/

Any and all comments that are not relevant proof will be warned.


There is too much Refined Metal available for 0.09$ to consider 0.10$ in the range.

    The guy selling for $0.08 doesn't seem to take paypal, idk if that makes a difference for the sake of suggesting.

    Why have 0.08 in the range when there are quickbuyers for it at 0.085 and 0.08?

      He said that the 0.085 buyer is likely inactive, and there is only 1 buyer at 8. also, the seller at 8 has 115 in stock. That seller is 3 weeks old.

      seems fully justified, upvote from me.

        the 0.08 seller doesnt even take paypal which is the most used form of online currency. Surely such a factor would have a significant impact on sales

          That doesn't matter, if he's selling for 0.08, then it should be in the range.

            With that logic, why arent marketplace.tf sellers in the range if they sell for as much as they do? I believe such sales should fall under a similar category that renders the sale/seller unusable due to its relative inaccuracy in explaining sales for the entire market

                He wasn't saying that marketplace should be included in the range; he was saying that a seller who doesn't accept paypal, which is by far the most common online currency, should be excluded for the same reason that marketplace is, namely that it doesn't reflect the whole market and that there is a convenience factor involved (and in the case of the $0.08 seller it is not in his favor).

                  Convenience is not a significant factor when it comes to suggesting.

                  And again, the link to that thread. read it.

                    Maybe you need to read it... one of the main rationalizations for not including marketplace sales for ref is because it is more convenient than buying it from a random trader, so people are willing to pay over market price. Buying from someone who doesn't accept paypal is significantly less convenient for most traders (read most of the market) than someone who does accept paypal, so it would make sense that they would sell for a little less than market price, and by the same logic that excludes marketplace.tf, that seller should be excluded

                        At this point, we're straying away from the original point. The original question is why 0.08 is included in the range. Here are my arguments on the subject:

                        1. There is a valid seller at 8. He is not young, nor is he out of stock.

                        2. Marketplace has a limited audience of those who want to purchase metal safely and without hassle and does not have any competition as far as sellers are concerned. I believe it is a completely different market, and should not be used to price currency. I also think marketplace is an outlier due to the fact that the sales are more than 0.02 over the common trading point. The tremendous amount of sellers at 0.09 counters it.

                        3. The buyer at 0.085 is very likely inactive. He hasn't been responding to comments and the last time he hid a comment was a year ago.

                        4. 1.85 is a common trading point for keys right now. You can easily get about 23 metal from a key and vice versa. 1.85/23 is around 0.0804. I know this isn't solid evidence, but it supports 8 being in the range.

                        Therefore I believe 0.08 should be in the range.

                          There are a few reasons why marketplace.tf sales are not directly used in the ranges for refined suggestions. Apart from involved fees and such, one of the reasons there is that sales are higher there because people pay extra for the convenience.


                          If we're going to translate that to the other end of the story, we should also exclude sales/sellers with extra conditions that would qualify as 'negative convenience' as opposed to 'positive convenience' for which people are willing to pay extra (e.g security and instant trades etc.)


                          As in all suggestions (or at least, as it should be in all suggestions in my eyes), things like that should be taken into consideration, but due to the odd market of this particular item (one that has a surprisingly large impact on values as displayed on this site), it should weigh even stronger here. In regular suggestions, single sellers that are either never online or suffer from escrow (and have 15day trade holds) are excluded; of course they will never sell an item at its full potential; they'll have to give discounts to make up for that.

                          In a case like this, if a particular seller is not willing to accept the most common used cash exchange method, then I would say that counts as a strong negative convenience factor that would make that seller invalid; it would be comparable to a grocery store where you can only pay with cash and not with a creditcard or something alike (assuming there are no ATMs anywhere near); most people dont carry much cash, so if theres a store right next to it that does accept creditcard, it will have far larger sales volumes even if his prices are 10% higher.

                            I understand your point, but I don't see how it is sifnificantly more convenient to use PayPal over skrill. Skrill is also a pretty widely used payment method, and I wouldn't hesitate to buy from that seller for less rather than spend more just for the sake of using PayPal, but that's just my opinion and I cannot speak for the rest of the community.

                            I 100% have to agree with foamy here. I was thinking about this suggestion for a while and whether the 0.08$ seller was valid or not because of this, and it does not seem like an useful seller to use at all, moreso when it comes to an item that weighs as much impact as this.

                            Skrill may be more widely used anywhere else, but TF2 transactions for skrill are slim to none when it comes to weighing down on what the market for a specific item is. If anything, this is the first time i've ever seen a suggestion where a skrill user is being used as evidence at all.


                            If you ask me, this should be $0.09 flat. Salvage has proven that $0.10 doesn't sell outside of marketplace, however there's not much evidence that $0.08 is justified at all here. The buyers at $0.08(despite being really weak buyers) don't help that much either.

                              If I were to suggest @0.09 flat ref the ref price would be even more inaccurate than it currently is, which is a big factor that should be taken into consideration with ref suggestions, keys are always stable at around 1.85 in cash, however the key/metal ratio constantly changes and since the real life currency value of all items is sadly based on ref its price has to be adjusted, as polar stated numerous times it would be better if that real life currency value of all items would be based on keys but since that isn't possible with how the site is coded we have to update Refined that way. Refined has a jokingly small market and therefor few sellers are sufficant, while the seller might not be as valid as others it is still a source where Refined is available for 0.08 and by the looks of it he also has success with selling which means there are sales @0.08.


                              These two factors combined should show that going with this range would be better in every aspect. To further prove 0.08 belonging in the range I will add the seller and buyer @0.08 and ask them how sucessful they are at selling their metal.

                                Agree with the other mods that 0.09 flat would be best. Yes, as I've said elsewhere it's important to take into account key values, and it's helpful to do a rough conversion to determine where ref dollar value should be. But I also think it would be inappropriate to set your value based on a single link at 0.08 that isn't even a paypal seller.


                                Range can be re-adjusted when more 0.08 sellers show up.