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Credit do da foamy and especially to the jarool
Proof;
Solds:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140540443#!/compare/1464912000/1464998400 ~sold for a duped burning pickel ~62 but added 2 keys in adds
Sales for the pickel are kinda all over the place, but here's what I found:
Sale 1:
Sold with 5 keys + ~2 keys in items for Eldritch Flame Hellmet
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28109594 - B/O of 70
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1461542400/1461628800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084771087#!/compare/1461542400/1461888000
This sale was used in the Hellmet price suggestion, but the suggester didn’t realise that it was duped, and didn’t provide a mini for it. Therefore, the sale in that suggestion is invalid.
X + 7 = 66.5
X = 60 (Rounded from 59.5)
Sale 2:
Sold for Aussie Stickybomb Launcher (17 at the time) + Aussie Killstreak Scattergun (~38 at the time)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28183731 - No Visible B/O
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009272632#!/compare/1463529600/1463702400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079111788#!/compare/1463270400/1463702400
X = 55
Sale 3:
Sold for Cauldron Bubbles Napper’s Respite
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28078376 - B/O of 50
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162120088#!/compare/1461542400/1461628800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1461456000/1461542400
X = 41
Sale 4:
Sold for 41 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28204479 - B/O of 48 (sold in ~2 days)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159649904#!/compare/1464393600/1464480000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157322911#!/compare/1464393600/1464480000
X = 41
Sale 5:
Sold for Flies Tam + Blizzardy Football Helmet + Planets Beret + 10 keys + Strange Festive Killstreak Chargin’ Targe
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087962998#!/compare/1461369600/1461456000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009272632#!/compare/1461369600/1461456000
2 of 3 unusuals are outdated, but this sale should be around 45+ keys
Sale 6:
Sold for Duped Green Confetti Beak
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1464480000/1464566400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112099979#!/compare/1464480000/1464566400
So, we have sales at 60, 55, 41 (2x) and two sales without a proper value, at approximately 45+ and 55+
The sales at 41 happened pretty quickly, and the sale at 45 took probably a week to sell. You could exclude the sales at 45 and less, and go with 55-60 (57.5) for the pickel. This would value your sale 2 at 56 keys, since the 2 keys in items were added with the Safe’n’Sound
I'm back with more sales on the Safe'n'Sound:
Sale 1: (dupe)
Sold with a key for Duped Purple Energy Reggaelator?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28275650 - B/O of 65
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159787268#!/compare/1467158400/1467244800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168944782#!/compare/1467072000/1467244800
Don’t know if the Cloud 9 Industrial Festivizer was involved or not, but I doubt it was.
Reggaelator would require a mini, but I doubt that it would go less than 65
X = 65? (Capped by B/O)
Sale 2:
Sold with Stormy Ol’ Geezer (15) for Duped Green Energy Wester Wear + Strange Pro. KS Gunslinger (22) + Strange Killstreak Degreaser with parts (2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28220675 - B/O of 55
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206#!/compare/1464825600/1464912000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140540443#!/compare/1464825600/1464912000
X + 15 = 39 + 22 + 2
X + 15 = 63
X = 48
Western Wear Mini:
Sold for Purple Confetti Le Party Phantom
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28294253 - B/O of 45
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095978190#!/compare/1467072000/1467158400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1467072000/1467158400
New owner is looking for 39 on the Party Phantom
http://puu.sh/pNnho/283dbc5ef3.png
X = 39
Sale’s kinda complex, and the mini is lazy, so this sale probably shouldn’t be used. It already looks like an outlier, anyways
Sale 3: (dupe)
Sold for Haunted Phantasm Jr. Chieftain’s Challenge + Buds
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168944782#!/compare/1467072000/1467244800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1467072000/1467244800
Should probably be used to update the Chieftain’s
So, with those sales, you have sales at 70, 65, 56 and 48
Rounded 48 to 50, so 50-70 = 60
Or you could go with 56 to 55 and go 55-65. Same thing.