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1 hat =/= 1 ref. Don't get fooled. :D
Classifieds :
http://imgur.com/I4t2Fxn
3 at 1,44 ref (all have mobile auth.)
Unsolds :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27922364 - 1,55 ref (4 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27901311 - 1,77 ref (1 week)
Sale :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27915325 - Sold to scrap.tf (invalid)
Conclusion :
Small market.