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Well, here it is.
============================== Sales ==============================
Sold for 1050 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010845155?time=1446710400&compare=1446796800 - in a few days; sold November 5th
I bought this one, and later resold it for 1050 keys. Good choice, honestly.
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Sold for cash
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27409110 - in 1 week; sold November 18th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27485731 - buyer resold for 1000 keys, so it was likely not above this
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Sold for 1050 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27455117 - in ~2 weeks; sold November 19th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27377427 - first listed November 6th
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Sold for 1020 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27466734 - in ~2 days; sold November 23rd
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Sold for 1600 keys mixed, B/O of 1200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27491888 - in ~4 days; sold November 29th
Sold for:
150 keys
Orbiting Planets Blighted Beak (50 keys)
Circling Peace Sign Blighted Beak (~50 keys)
Fountain of Delight Schadenfreude (125 keys)
Holy Grail Oblooterated (75 keys)
Burning Flames Tyrannus (~135 keys)
Cloud 9 Polar Pullover (~170)
Scorching Flames Bomber's Bucket Hat (~170 keys)
Green Energy Le Party Phantom (65 keys)
Poisoned Shadows Executioner (~200 keys)
Chiroptera Venenata Tough Guy's Toque (~60)
Anti-Freeze Hat of Cards (115 keys)
Searing Plasma Brotherhood of Arms (232.5 keys)
Mini for Tough Guy's Toque:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27519544 B/O of 60 keys
Mini for Pullover:
11:07 AM - polar: the pullover i still have but two different people asked me to reserve it for 170 pure
Mini for Planets Beak:
11:26 AM - polar: let's see. i sold the planets beak for 50 pure
Mini for Executioner:
11:27 AM - polar: i sold my shadows ex for a burning fortunate son
11:27 AM - polar: multiple 200 pure sales on the fortunate son
All of these would be close to 1600 keys.
This should be capped at the B/O of 1200 keys.
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Sold for 1000 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27485731 - in ~2 weeks; sold November 30th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27449906 - first listed November 18th
Puddington was buying for 1000 keys at the time, but changed his price to 900 keys shortly after buying this.
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Sold for 1102 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27452264 - in ~2 weeks; sold December 4th
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Sold for cash
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27518088 - in a few days; sold around December 4th
Buyer resold for 1000 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27594438
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Sold for 1000 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27564751 - in ~1 day; sold December 10th
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Sold for cash (LEVEL 1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27474306 - in ~2 months; sold December 8th (visible offer of "1050 or 1100 keys")
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27192312 - first listed October 8th
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Sold for 1550 keys mixed, B/O of 1200 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27583996 - in ~1 month; sold December 17th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27439475 - first listed November 16th
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124232520?time=1450166400&compare=1450339200
Sold for:
118 keys
Knifestorm Crone's Dome (open suggestion at 800 keys)
Sunbeams Spook Specs (237.5 keys)
Scorching Flames Head Warmer (200 keys)
Ether Trail Smokey Sombrero (51 keys)
The Ooze Ol' Geezer (25.5 keys)
Vivid Plasma Grenadier's Softcap (40.5 keys)
Cauldron Bubbles Le Party Phantom (80 keys)
Most of these items are very recently updated, with the exception of the Softcap.
Together this is about 1550 keys, but the B/O was 1200 keys.
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Sold for cash
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27591214 - in ~1 day; sold around December 20th
Buyer is reselling for 1100 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27663661
This trade explains the history: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27592894
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Sold for Duped Scorching Killer Exclusive (~1500 keys), B/O of 1300 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27594572 - in ~1 week; sold December 28th
KE should be worth a decent amount over 1300 according to this sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26959572
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107358473?time=1449561600&compare=1449907200
Purple Energy Virtual Viewfinder (870) + Roboactive Brotherhood of Arms (480) + Cloud 9 Crown of the Old Kingdom (~160?)
Comes to around 1510 keys. Crown value is just a guess, it shouldn't matter much. :P
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Sold for ~1760 keys in Unusuals
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27574510 - in ~3 weeks; sold December 30th
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027426525?time=1451376000&compare=1451462400
Sold for:
Morning Glory Sleeveless in Siberia (650 keys; updated ~1 month ago)
Anti-Freeze Merc's Mohawk (635 keys; updated ~4 months ago)
Harvest Moon Soldier's Stash (630 keys; updated a year ago)
Sold with:
Disco Beat Down Merc's Mohawk (152.5; updated ~1 week ago)
Taking all these values into account...
(650 + 635 + 630) - 152.5 = 1762.5 keys
However the buyer is reselling for 1025 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27634557
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Sold for 1000 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27594438 - in ~1 month; sold January 2nd
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27537410 - first listed December 4th
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048864903?time=1450166400&compare=1451980800
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Sold for cash
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27654154 - in ~1 week; sold January 4th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27633074 - first listed December 30th (offered 900, 950 keys)
Being resold: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27656373
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Sold for Unusuals, B/O of 1025 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27634557 - in ~1 week; sold January 6th
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106?time=1452067200&compare=1451808000
Sold for:
33 keys
Sunbeams Deep Cover Operator (650 keys)
Bubbling Crown of the Old Kingdom (285 keys)
Cloudy Moon Milkman (285 keys)
Massed Flies Brotherhood of Arms (228 keys)
Frostbite Spook Specs (217.5 keys)
Bonzo the All-Knawing Nunhood (205 keys)
Blizzard Brotherhood of Arms (140 keys)
Aces High Le Party Phantom (38 keys)
Almost all of these are outdated and extremely overpriced, and I don't think it's worth bothering finding proper minis for each. These were all fresh off of Sweetstakes, that should say a lot.
Anyways, all of this adds up to over 2000 keys. This should be capped at the B/O of 1025 keys.
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Sold for $2600 USD (LEVEL 1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27578026 - in ~3 weeks; sold January 7th
Valuing keys at $1.85 each this comes to around 1400 keys.
HOWEVER, this pan was level 1 which is for serious collectors only. (says polar)
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Sold for 1200 keys mixed
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27668667 - in ~1 week; sold January 15th
Sold for:
600 keys
Duped Sunbeams Team Captain
Duped Sunbeams Team Captain:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27602106 - had some offers in the 500+ range, should be safely valued higher than 500 keys
Should be ~1200 keys.
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Sold for 1000 keys mixed
http://backpack.tf/item/4469010728 - in ~1 week?; sold around January 16th
Most of the payment is in keys, the remaining part of the payment is a GBH Bear Necessities.
I was eying this in classifieds for a while. It's a freshly dropped level 1 pan. They were trying for 1050 keys for some time. They dropped their price to 1000 keys. It sold after that.
Screenshot in classifieds: http://i.imgur.com/rd7txeU.png
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Sold for 1100 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27721349 - in ~1 month; sold January 22nd
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27594438 - first listed December 20th
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Sold for 980 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27628772 - in ~3 weeks; sold January 22nd
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Sold for $1700
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27740611 - in 1 day; sold January 24th
I sold this one. I personally valued this at around 1000 keys.
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Summary of Sales in Chronological Order:
November 5th: 1050 (Keys)
November 18th: 1020 (Keys)
November 19th: 1050 (Keys)
November 23rd: 1020 (Keys)
November 29th: 1600 (Mixed; 1200 B/O)
November 30th: 1000 (Keys)
December 4th: 1102 (Keys)
December 10th: 1000 (Keys)
December 17th: 1550 (Mixed; 1200 B/O)
December 28th: 1500 (Unusuals; 1300 B/O)
December 30th: 1760 (Unusuals)
January 2nd: 1000 (Keys)
January 6th: 2000 (Outdated Unusuals; 1025 B/O)
January 7th: 1400 (Cash; LEVEL 1)
January 15th: 1200 (Mixed)
January 16th: 1000 (Almost all keys; LEVEL 1)
January 22nd: 1100 (Keys)
January 22nd: 980 (Keys)
January 23rd: 1000 (Cash)
Organizing these sales into pure/non-pure offers and capping at buyouts looks like this:
Pure sales: (980-1102 keys)
980
1000
1000
1000
1020
1020
1050
1050
1100
1102
Mixed/unusual sales: (1025-1300 keys)
1025
1200
1200
1200
1200
1300
1760 sale technically didn't have a buyout, but it can be capped at 1200 keys because I said so. <.<
============================== Sellers ==============================
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27665303 1100 keys; 3 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27519555 1200 keys; >1 month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27626207 offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27704657 "2200+++ In Unusuals"
============================== Buyers ==============================
http://i.imgur.com/PUGQBgq.png 925, 900, 700 keys in classifieds
============================== Conclusion ==============================
Over half of the pure sales are around 980-1020 keys. Though some of the lower sales may sell quite fast, pans sell easily and frequently around this value and are often valued as "1000 keys".
Why 1000 keys isn't a quicksell:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27628772 Was selling for around 3 weeks at 1050 keys before taking 980 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27634557 Was selling for 1025 keys for about a week, took an offer of a ton of Unusuals
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27594438 Was selling for roughly a month before taking 1000 keys
No quick-buyers are currently offering to pay 1000 keys.
Why 1200 keys works as a high-end:
Pans can reliably get a ton of overpay in Unusuals. There are plenty of mixed and Unusual offers that well exceed their buyout, which is usually 1200 keys.
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Feel free to disagree. :D
Holy shit a lot of work went into this. Nice job.
Yes! yes! yes! Drop it! Just for me! I just wanna hold it.
My reaction to this suggestion and how people react when they see one xD
My duped pan sold for 1000 pure in less than 24 hours. Might want to add it there?
Wasn't including duped sales/sellers.
That's a lot of sales ;-;
That's the longest suggestion i've ever seen !
Upvote, i was thinking about the drop at 1000k which was obvious for me
Upvoting, solid proof.
rip m0rxx's streak