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~ Hooray for using my own sales in downvotes ~
Sale 1
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Sold for 180 keys pure + (reserve of orb. fire engie cap + 4 keys pure)
Was reserved around 3 months back while buyer collected the 180 pure. Sold today for that price.
180 pure (actual trade of the marauder), before & after-
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1451635200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1451721600
Engineer's cap + 4 pure (Reserve for marauder 3 months ago, was still part of the trade) before & after, including screenie of the trade history for clarity-
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1444806000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1444892400
Screenie http://i.imgur.com/nJjbPWt.png
184 + (16 * .9 = 14.4) = 198.4, rounding to 200
- - -
Orb fire engie cap was up-to-date price wise at the time of the reserve, but a little proof of the 16 key price being accurate. In any case, considering the bulk of the trade was in pure keys, this is the only clean marauder sale in the past 3 months to my knowledge, and that all the B/Os on outpost/classifieds for orb. fire engie caps are around the 16-17 key mark and any recent sales were most likely in that range, it'll do for this suggestion.
2 sellers for 16 keys on classifieds as of 1/2/2016 - http://i.imgur.com/7rTEiOr.png - Cashew's is clean, sluggy's is duped
Duped, B/O of 17 pure, 20 in hats - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27624641
- - -
Any recent sales or any extra supporting evidence would be appreciated. Making suggestions isn't fun with an outpost ban. c:
Marauder pricing is very strange, Harvest is two times more rare (2 vs 4 unboxed) but only half of C. Moon value. Same "craziness" goes for Scorching vs Burning one, where Buring one is also 2x more rare (5 vs 11 unboxed) but priced at only half value of Scorching one (180 scorch vs 95 burning)...
Welp, that's bible.tf pricing for you :^)
its because the prices are outdated. Based on what it sold for in the past, this should have been ~100 or even lower, but it was poorly converted. Since harvest was converted differently, it was sold thereafter based on that value. Technically this is a huge raise ;p
Guess youre lucky to have found someone that followed bptf blindly ;p
Possible, some hats got converted at 20+ keys per bud, and some way bellow 10..
Yeah, it depends on a variety of things.
Another funny example is harvest and secret Private Eye. They were originally both ~9 buds. Secret was appraised at an inconvenient moment and harvest inflated as hell; they recently got updated and harvest is twice secret now :P
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/561745b6b98d88af74cc1aff
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56174637b98d888d74cc1b10
It's not really a marauder specific thing. Halloween effects across the board are just like that. They may sell to the right buyer for extraordinary value after 3-4 months. In the meantime, you might sit for months without a single offer.
Moon marauder sold three times for 85-115 here - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5626c462dea9e9a5347f766a
I'll probably need to do some more digging here to see if there have been other sales. I asked the person to resuggest at 85-115 but he never did. This would have fallen as an outlier in that suggestion.
that's me, I apologize, because I didn't really understand what you wrote when you closed the suggestion because I'm very new to unusual suggestions.
Sorry, sometimes I reply in haste at the cost of clarity.
no problem. i'd be happy to do the resuggestion now, but I'm pretty sure i'd need some advice if i were to make it again. all I DO know, is that there is definitely evidence against this price, i'm just not good with fitting that evidence to backpack.tf's suggestion rules.
Most of those sales are too old to use now, unfortunately.
Find any other recent clean sales? From what limited information I could gather from outpost and such, I believe this is the only valid one at the time of this suggestion