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"wow, the sales on this thing are nuts"
Going for a more conservative drop. Apparently there's also a quickbuyer at 16. Credits to 3v1lcl0n3|[H]Games[W]Unusuals for finding that
original pun, I know. Im boring sometimes
The sales on this thing are so odd though, holy mother of football
The sales
Sale 1:
Sold for spec aussie FaN (~15)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442605014 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442646000 after
-> 15 keys
=====================================================================================================
Sale 2:
Sold for smoking mullet (~14)
B:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442214000 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442473200 after
S:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084949613?time=1442247547 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084949613?time=1442473200 after
Smoking mullet was then exchanged for the stormy nano +1 key, histories match on the nano and the mullet, explaining why mullet and bonk dont match
0.9*14 = ~13
-> 13 keys
=====================================================================================================
Sale 3:
Sold for 21 keys?
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001234121?time=1440511921 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001234121?time=1440918000 after
Eh, makes no sense that someone would buy this for 21 and then sell it for the mullet. Keys seem to come out of nowhere.
-> 21 keys
=====================================================================================================
Sale 4:
Sold for steaming baker (~13)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175140766?time=1440458837 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175140766?time=1440486000 after
Outdated, but sellers at 12. Supportive towards the other lower sales
=====================================================================================================
Sale 5:
Sold for nnb mongolian (~8.5) + spec aussie smg (~9) + spec aussie smg + ~3 in sweets
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087968709?time=1440297386 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087968709?time=1440313200 after
0.9*(8.5+3) +9 = ~19
-> 19 keys
=====================================================================================================
Sale 6:
Sold for a shitton of strange ks/spec ks/pro ks stuff?
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075997423?time=1442041039 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075997423?time=1442041200 after
Definite high outlier
=====================================================================================================
I REALLY dont know why the sales are so weird on this thing, but I feel like I cant ingore THIS many sales around (and even below) the low end.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26140936 the gifted one has been selling for 4 months, and has gotten pure offers of 16, 18 and 20 (the 20 being from an unexperienced trader that just wanted a bonk boy). Those offers support the higher end of the range. The abundance of sales below it support a drop though. Most of those sales happened last month. Another one sold for a PE grid +1 key, which also supports the lower end.
constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3