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~27.5 keys
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Unusual Bonk Boy Nuts n' Bolts
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"wow, the sales on this thing are nuts"


Going for a more conservative drop. Apparently there's also a quickbuyer at 16. Credits to 3v1lcl0n3|[H]Games[W]Unusuals for finding that


original pun, I know. Im boring sometimes

The sales on this thing are so odd though, holy mother of football


The sales


Sale 1:


Sold for spec aussie FaN (~15)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442605014 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442646000 after


-> 15 keys


=====================================================================================================


Sale 2:


Sold for smoking mullet (~14)

B:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442214000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020777819?time=1442473200 after


S:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084949613?time=1442247547 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084949613?time=1442473200 after

Smoking mullet was then exchanged for the stormy nano +1 key, histories match on the nano and the mullet, explaining why mullet and bonk dont match


0.9*14 = ~13


-> 13 keys


=====================================================================================================


Sale 3:


Sold for 21 keys?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001234121?time=1440511921 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001234121?time=1440918000 after

Eh, makes no sense that someone would buy this for 21 and then sell it for the mullet. Keys seem to come out of nowhere.


-> 21 keys


=====================================================================================================


Sale 4:


Sold for steaming baker (~13)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175140766?time=1440458837 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175140766?time=1440486000 after

Outdated, but sellers at 12. Supportive towards the other lower sales


=====================================================================================================


Sale 5:


Sold for nnb mongolian (~8.5) + spec aussie smg (~9) + spec aussie smg + ~3 in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087968709?time=1440297386 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087968709?time=1440313200 after

0.9*(8.5+3) +9 = ~19


-> 19 keys


=====================================================================================================


Sale 6:


Sold for a ****ton of strange ks/spec ks/pro ks stuff?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075997423?time=1442041039 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075997423?time=1442041200 after

Definite high outlier


=====================================================================================================


I REALLY dont know why the sales are so weird on this thing, but I feel like I cant ingore THIS many sales around (and even below) the low end.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26140936 the gifted one has been selling for 4 months, and has gotten pure offers of 16, 18 and 20 (the 20 being from an unexperienced trader that just wanted a bonk boy). Those offers support the higher end of the range. The abundance of sales below it support a drop though. Most of those sales happened last month. Another one sold for a PE grid +1 key, which also supports the lower end.


constructive criticism welcome!


~Foamy :3