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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26604180
http://imgur.com/cETMHQi,i6oIlGX,iVChR88#0
These are all sales I've made.
The second picture shows the puffy being sold with a dogfighter and the third shows it being sold with a sharp dresser, but the provocateur always kept the value of 12. Below are sellers currently looking for more or aqround the same
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26588019 -12.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26337103 -1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26148070 -12.33
Sold one for 14 Refined http://i.imgur.com/I906TdB.png
12 Ref sale http://prntscr.com/80ahbx
Based off classifieds, the range here should probably be 11-12 ref
There has been plenty of sales at 12 ref and higher, I personally sold two at 12 ref in one day. One of the above users actually sold one at 14. I don't think 12 would be a bad price for it.
Few buyers at 11+ on classifieds now and not that many sellers below 12. Accepting
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26078798
Another trade selling at 12
Most classified selling at 12 or higher right now, except one