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You were right Polar! The Charmer's price was almost exactly 50 keys off (the new mini I used is 47 keys less than the original) :P
Only recent sale:
Sold for a Duped Misty Skull Charmer's Chapeau
(218*0.9) = 196.2 rounding to 200 keys
No outpost trade
Seller Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066701092?time=1429686000
Seller After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066701092?time=1429945200
Notes:
Mini for the Duped Misty Skull Charmer's Chapeau: ~218
1 for 1 with a Duped Frostbite Pyromancer's Mask
Seller Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013095772?time=1427958000
Seller After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013095772?time=1428130800
Mini mini for the Duped Frostbite Pyromancer's Mask ~218
Sold for a Green Energy Exquisite Rack, 3 buds and 25 keys (buds were 12 keys)
(174*0.9) + 25 + (12*3) = 217.6 rounding to 218 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24971901
Seller Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066429990?time=1425628800
Seller After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066429990?time=1425715200
Conclusion:
Only one recent sale at 200, taking the final price at 200 keys.
Misty Chapeau's price is outdated 12 months old, and there's one on market for 136 keys
I included a mini for it, as for the one on the market, not sure how I can deal with that since there hasn't been a sale that low yet. We'll see if it sells I guess? It has only been up for 1 day.
Think it'd be better if you suggest a price for frostbite mancer before pricing this. I can see that the mancer was sold for quite high, but I doubt it will ever be sold at 218 keys. Sulphuorous Pullover just got priced at 260 keys, and I think pricing this at 200 keys is definitely too high.