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Countered >:D
I had most of this proof prepared before Sugarcube suggested, so I’m glad I have a chance to counter :P
This hat is 1 of 3 and will probably stay that way. I managed to find the only valid sale.
History of #1: http://backpack.tf/item/3304428303
History of #2: http://backpack.tf/item/3340516905
HIstory of #3: http://backpack.tf/item/3273581510
I will go through every sale there has ever been for each hat:
Hat #1
First Sale: (outlier, quicksell)
Sold for 5.7 buds (6.42 x0.9 = 5.778) B/O of 5 so going down to 5 buds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25048372
http://prntscr.com/667p4p & http://backpack.tf/calculator/54e32d84b88d88ad5b8b46e6
Second Sale:
Invalid due to being with CSGO items. He bought the Rebel Rouser + a Frostbite Frontier Djustice + $100 in KS items for his ST Karambit Night + ft-look awp asiimov bs + 10 keys. I have no clue what this all means, but he said it equaled about 12 buds for both of the unusuals. So he estimated that the Rebel would be worth 6.
Third Sale:
Invalid due to being with CSGO items. It was a mixed offer for a knife he had. He estimated it valued the hat at around 9-10 buds.
Hat #2
Only Sale:
Sold with other unpriced and outdated unusuals for a bubbling hazmat. He said it was too complicated of a sale too track and didn’t give me a screenshot.
Hat #3
First Sale: (outlier, outdated)
Sold for Scorching Big Chief + 24 keys pure (buds were 15.5 at time)
(5*0.9) + (24/15.5) = 6 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24242617
History of Chief: http://backpack.tf/item/2206721130
Second Sale:
It + 3 buds sold for a Circling TF Logo Boxcar Bomber
(11.25*0.9) - 3 = 7.125 rounding to 7.1 buds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24271393 No B/O
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085819345?time=1420099200
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085819345?time=1420185600
Notes:
The owner of hat #1 said this to me:
Robatheon: letting you know my rebel rouser is mostly not for sale unless its a good offer
Robatheon: but i will hear out what you have to offer
Zapperzz: I know, I don't want it
Zapperzz: I was just wondering how much you bought it for for a price suggestion for it.
The owner of hat #2 has this trade open:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25348900 - B/O of 150 keys
Made the B/O when buds were still 12.5 keys and never changed it.
Based on that valuing it at 12. Even if that isn’t correct, it hasn’t sold for over a month so I think he’s keeping it.
The owner of hat #3 either converted to csgo or got scammed.
It must have gone into some sort of private backpack, because backpack.tf thinks that only 2 Morning Glory Rebels exist.
Conclusion:
A sale at 7.1, a quick sale at 5, and an outdated sale at 6. Why use a quick sell or outdated sell when I can use a fresh new one :D Thus taking the final price as 7.1 buds.
Also this hat isn’t going to be sold again for a bit (from what you can see in notes), so I think that it is okay to try and price it with the ONLY valid sale thus far. (I have been waiting for about a month to suggest this, and I had most of this proof gathered before sugar cube suggested)
2 month sales are usable when there is a lack of valid sales.
Why not 6-7?
It was 3+ months ago, or wait was it?
shit I'm dumb resugesting