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It kind of makes since that it's rising since it is a badge for Barons...
Classifieds (As of 4:00 PM EST):
1 at 1.66 ref, 1 at 2 ref, 1 at 1.23 keys :P http://prntscr.com/5rq375
SCM also supports a minor bump, with sales averaging at about 30 cents USD, which is equivalent to 1.88 ref http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Genuine%20Baronial%20Badge
Litterally 5 sellers on Outpost, 2 haven't been bumped recently, 2 are asking for offers, and the other one is young and bumped poorly.
Recent sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24544322 1.66 ref
Buyers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24062657 Unsuccessful at 1.33
With no current lower sellers, and as the market is so small, 1.66 ref should do.