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Classifieds, 3.5, 3.8, and one at 4 painted gold.
Solds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23338882 4 keys (aussie gold, looks like it was sold by this guy and is for sale on classifieds at the same price by another guy)
Unsolds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23442174 - 3.5 keys 23 hours (this is the same 3.5 on classifieds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23458901 4 keys Young, painted + parts
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23434525 1 day 4 keys (painted lack of hue)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23387065 3 days 4 keys (painted tinge)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23310592 1 week 4 keys (painted tinge, looks like he lowered at some point)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361832 4 keys, 5 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23354004 'bp price' 5 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22665960 no offers 1 month, low interest for this item
Other marketplaces
SCM ~14 sold in the last week for $9-$10 (3-3.4 keys received by seller, buyers paying 3.6-4)
Trade.tf - 3.4 keys
Uncraftable version price - 3-4 keys
Ehhh... I'd like to wait a little longer for that 3.5 key seller. It's really young.
almost a day old and well bumped
even if so, there's still a lack of proof for 3.5. it's clear this needs a drop though
there is a sale for 4 recently so this range seems appropriate ATM
one day is not long at all for a strange cosmetic since its a small market
You need more sales
Not to lower it. 2 below current price and many with valuable parts and paints asking current price.
Just to say I'm the one which was listed on classified (painted gold) and it sold for the 4 keys.
But since it was painted that won't really help here.
first unsold link quicksold to this guy for 3 keys + 2 ref: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22248225
so a day and a half unsold at 3.5
i don't think 1 link at 3.5 which quicksold for less is enough proof for this.
Looks nice, but was the "Uncraftable version price" thing even relevant to tis drop in particular?
guess not... mind taking! oooo wheeewww weeee ooooo! nevermind, strike that from the record
Excuse me?
Not very convincing, strange cosmetics take a while to sell, and the only old sale seems very poorly bumped (barely 100 views in a month)
Also as said above, your 3.5 are way too young and way too few compared to the other ones
2 sold at 4 keys, one with worthless part/part and one with tinge/spells
3.5 Key Seller Sold His In A Day, Completely Invalid.
he has unsold for a day and a half then quicksold for even less 3.2 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23442174 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23458901 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23434525 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23387065 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23310592 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361832 - 1 week but just have 35 views, not autobump
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22665960 - last bump 4 days ago, poorly bump
downvote!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361832 - sold
LanBaCini has spoken. 'Nuff said.
With only a single seller at low end which sold quickly, there's not enough proof to validate suggested price.
Closing for insufficient evidence of low range