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Fixed based on suggestions.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16338352 - Sold for Stormy Yellow Belt (1-1.3 buds) - Used bud value of 19.5 keys. Average range being 22.43 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17232751 - Sold for Blizz Counterfiet Billycock (14-16 keys) Average range being 15 keys.
Average of suggested range being 18 keys, which is ~ what both seller's B/O are.
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17248346 - B/O of 18 keys
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Collector%27s%20Darwin%27s%20Danger%20Shield - For sale at $44.41 / 17.84 keys @ $2.49 per key
idk if the first one can be counted anymore since the sale happened over a month ago.
and the fact that it has happened a lot in a month. and that there's one sale at 15, and a b/o which is unbought at 18 tells me 21 is an old price
I agree with this. Most collector weapons have gone down in price significantly just within the last 2 weeks.
Thought I'd help you out with some additional proof
Bought mine for a Collector's Equalizer + 8 keys, guy who sold it said he valued the Equalizer at around 12~ish keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16140122
So yeah, right around 20 keys
That's someone's opinion, not the set price
You forgot the Unusual's overpay factor of 0.9 :
First sale is worth 20 keys (but 1 month old...3 new collectors on 8 crafted since that moment), and second is worth 15 keys (cuz original value is 16.57 keys)
Your high-end is still too high...
Steam Community market price can't be used as proof. They are not relevant. Also, the first one as Christley mentioned over a month old, so neutral on that.
Then again, you have a user here supporting your range with proof. Unfortunately, Collector's Equalizer is not priced yet, so that leaves invalid as well.
I am really not sure about this.
~
Putting the gear at neutral
Why can't community market sales be supplemental proof?
It's a data point.
Community Market sales can be used as supporting proof (or so I've been told)
That sale was also a month ago as well as the first link in the proof.
it's kinda iffy, people generally don't like seeing it being included with the rest of the linked outpost/bazaar tf/ etc proof. probably best to make a note saying that it's supplemental (shouldn't hurt)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17248346 - ended up selling for ~13-14 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17232751 - sold for 14 after overpay
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17387055 - highest offer is the nuts mountain cap (medic unusual offer)
Both recent sales at 13-14 are likely more indicative of its current price. The 21 key sale is outdated for these collectors that have all dropped significantly in the last month