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gonna be gone for 4 hours, just comment if I need more proof
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7597673
-person willing to buy for 1 key + 1.33 (even if already sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6618590
-2 offers of 1 key in past month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10038595
-rejected all 2.66 offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10599046
-rejected 2.88 offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10396744
-3 refined, interest
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10100211
-rejected 2.77 offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10349081
-3.33 refined offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10332941
-2 3 refined offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10093221
-3 refined offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10462502
-3 ref offer, anything else rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10587132
-rejected 2.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10540416
-rejected 2.66 offer
I don’t use old proof unless it makes a significant difference
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9774372 -3.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9967689 -3.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9987794 -all 3 sold for 3.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9936751 -1 key???
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10624239 -3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10617151 -most likely 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10582528 -quickly sold for 2.77
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10417679 -quick sold for 2.55
classifieds: NO 2.66 sellers
http://i.imgur.com/40EmsZj.png
not bumping to 3.33 because it doesn’t sell that high
I really don’t care about the two I have in bp, the little counter already explains that
If i got some, i sold em fast for 3ref (2 times i think). L8 is also sold. up
Counter:
Link 1: 4 months old, no activity since then.
Link 3: Unsold. Rejecting has a lot less weight when they still havent sold it.
Link 4: Unsold
Link 5: Unsold, and if he meant to offer 3 ref the offerer would have said so
Link 6: In current Range
Link 7: Unsold, and 3.33 offer was item overpay.
Link 8: Current Range
Link 9: Current Range
Link 10: Unsold
Link 11: Unsold
Below 3 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10617151 (2-3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10582528 (As you listed, I'm not sure why you're trying to say it was quickly sold. where's your proof of that?)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10478362 (2.77)
You're proof doesn't seem very strong, and even you've shown people are still selling below 3 ref.
LOL.
First link- offer 1 week ago.
Offers= buyable at any moment.
Okay. So you've got one guy apparently offering 1 key + 1.33, or effectively 6.33 ref. More than twice even the suggested range. You really dont think that's an outlier? Obviously it's not hard at all to get it for less than that.
point was to show no one will sell for 2.66.
those lower ranges were 3 trades out of a hundred, they can be counted as outliers
people are willing to buy for higher.
link one: already sold, but someone offers anyways
link 3: low end isnt acceptable
link 4: low end isnt acceptable
link 5: if someone lists their wants as 3 refined, most assume it is for 3 refined. bu i agree, not that relevant of a link, so invalid
link 6: higher than low end, could have easily taken it and bought for 2.66 wouldn't he?
link 7: still higher than 3 refined, and buyer bought another this way
link 8: disproving low end if people are willing to offer high
link 9: low end isnt acceptable
link 10: very first offer, instantly rejected
link 11: same guy from link 10, obviously no success
About Link 7, since it was overpay specifically, it's hard to gauge exactly how much overpay it was.
3&4They might have rejected 2.66 at this point, but seeing at they also seem to be currently unable to sell for higher than that (being unsold), it doesn't support your suggestion.
Take for example Link 11 - they haven't accepted 2.66, but they hasn't been able to sell at 3 either. For 4 days in their case
Strange weapons are not usually fast sellers, it takes more time than "normal" items. Rejected offers at 2.66 are to show you cannot buy at the low end (or at least with high difficulty).
Take the guy from link 10 and 11. He offered 2.66 on multiple trades, yet he still doesn't have one. Why is this so? They know they can sell for higher.
As for the unsold at 3 refined, there is a possibility bad luck could be a factor here. A lot of these are in sets, and most others are trying to get a key out of this. The low end is not correct in the sense that people are not successfully buying for that price, and more sales are happening at the high end and above. Therefore, a raise can be seen in the market.
http://trade.tf/price/775/11
should NOT be counted as strong proof imo, just some support
there is no 2.66 here
median range is heavily inclined towards 3, and i see no sales at 2.88
3 refined is justified.
again, this is NOT absolute proof.
Rejected offers don't mean anything if they are still in the range. Now, if you find a whole bunch of 3 ref offers (you only have 2), then you can use that, but otherwise a rejected 2.66 or 2.88 offer simply means that the individual seller is firm in their price.
As eventhorizon mentioned, many 3 ref sellers are unsold.
Rejected offers at low end (since they're for all of the trades) means it is difficult to buy at 2.66 refined. If there is trouble at the low end, then the low end is wrong.
Also, when the previous suggestion was in effect, there were some that sold OVER suggested range. Obviously, I didn't put 3.33 refined or 1 key in the range since those were older trades. It is still proof that it is selling for over 3 refined, A raise can be seen here.
Here's my bit of counter-proof. Took a while to actually find someone that was selling one, but when I did, it was an easy sale at 2.66.
(On a side note, tried to find someone through trade servers because Outpost people are stubborn blockheads)
[url]http://i.imgur.com/SkL6Ein.jpg[/url]
Your proof is substantial. Upvote
looks good, i found 3 2.66 sellers. sold out without 1 hour
Wait, if you found 2.66 ref sellers why are you removing that from the suggestion? 2.66 is just the low end not the high end.
3 sellers. all gone in under 1 hour. quicksell
From my experience, the low end is where sellers are willing to sell (that you proved) and should be sold within a couple of days. The high end is the max that sellers can sell it for within a week.
If there are people willing to sell it for 2.66 ref, then it means that 2.66 ref is still possible to buy.
nope, 3 sellers in the past 2 days that insta sold. Not that possible.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10615944 pretty much insta
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10615048 again, pretty much insta
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10606710 again, pretty much insta
Quoted from you:
"It doesn't matter how fast they're being sold, they're still being sold."
While I agree with you on that quote, you shouldn't be hypocritical.
i had around...what... 80 links on my key suggestion? this is 3 links
I thought it went
-low end: max price to buy that people will accept
-high end: max price to sell that people will accept
(but don't quote me on this, there are lots of opinions)
About the trades, they sold unusually fast, almost as if the people buying knew they were getting a great deal out of it. After that, there were no more sellers at 2.66 refined; they are very scarce. More and more trades are happening at 3 refined instead of 2.66 refined.
You mean min price to buy that people will accept?
I don't like speculating that "people buying knew they were getting a great deal out of it." They could have just stumbled upon the trade at the right time. Yet, they could also just be waiting to snatch up any 2.66 ref sellers. I don't like to speculate.
I thought you were the one arguing that it didn't matter how fast they sold...
I will believe this suggestion if you provide links of unsuccessful buyers at 2.66 ref. I won't do the research for you, but if you can show that, this proof will be good.
No one is buying for 2.66 refined, they are "low-balling".
And besides, there are no buyers on TF2 Outpost.
I must have gotten an error when looking up buyers.
I guess simple mistakes are never forgivable to people on the internet.
Seriously, who is flagging these? I don't think I offended you.
It's not low balling if people are willing to sell at that price.
"No one is buying for 2.66 refined" "there are no buyers on TF2 Outpost" - you have certainly done your research
Bought 5 from 2.44-2.66 ref (most likely 2.66)
5 in BP with ID 160XXX http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10282183
Seller offered 2.66 ref 1 week ago http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10204729
Buying for 2.66 ref:
1 recent add http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8126415
2 weeks (not recently bumped - pg 5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10251276
2 days (not bumped), 1 in BP with ID 162XXX http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10574526
2 days (barely bumped - pg 5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10600788
1 day (barely bumped - pg 5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10617298
1 day (barely bumped - pg 5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10622767
20 hrs (barely bumped) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10624522
Buying for 2.77 ref
A couple adds http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10352609
There are buyers on Outpost but many are just not bumped enough. Who knows maybe buyers for 2.66 ref get snatched up quickly too (when bumped).
Staying Neutral
buyer links:
link one: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10593882 selling for 3 ref, all sold
link 2: unbumped, irrelevant
link 3: only one bought
link 4: unsucessful
link 5: unsucessful
link 6: unsucessful
link 7: too new to consider
link 8: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10580811 reselling, all sold
offer: only one, i would like to see more.
Yes, I am aware that some are unsuccessful and unbumped which is why I stated it in my comment. You forgot to mention the 1st link though. "link one" was really the 2nd link I presented.
after researching, your very first link did not actually buy 5 at that price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10225217
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10287729
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10160828
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10279523
one was a low end trade, obviously eaten up by him
one was bought for 2.77
one was obtained for 2.66 after some time, had two other people willing to buy (too much interest...)
one was the very first offer. i cant check if he really got 2.66 because his inventory is private.
Ok now I see some effort. I am still staying neutral though.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10589677
^ some more proof, added him for 1 key
Couple of more evidences:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10633817 sold instantly for 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10354657 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10580811 3.66 ref?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10582528 eaten at 2.77
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10165690 sold one at 1 key
I <3 my SXcape plan! Interesting.... there's not really that many for ref. Just about 60+ of them. Shockingly I found only 1 under 3 ref and most are over that at 3.33 or 3.66 or even 5 ref. But does this mean that they actually sell at the current price or does this mean ONLY under 3 ref sells. You decide.
#7 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10577449 >> 3
#12 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10581594 >> 3
#18 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10642680 >> 3
#33 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10413397 >> 3
#41 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10625783 >> 3
#44 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10620235 >> 3
#55 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10555963 >> 3
#59 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10478362 >> 2.77
#60 >> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10417761 >> 3