Price Suggestion
~8.5 keys
o.plnts
Unusual Geisha Boy Orbiting Planets
75 votes up
53 votes down
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This suggestion was accepted by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

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In order to better reflect the actual value people are selling and buying this hat for, I have done some research into the history of various Orbiting Planets Geisha Boys to find out what they're worth right now.


Trade Rejections

These are traders who have received offers on their Geishas that were rejected on multiple instances. Sometimes it was within the current value, sometimes above the value even. This means that the value must increase accordingly.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9374726[/url] : Offer of White Bill's and a key rejected.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9318791/[/url] : Offers of 12-13 keys pure rejected.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9498025[/url] : Offer of White Bill's is rejected, and owner claims the hat is worth at least 16 keys.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7356440[/url] : Offers of 16 keys pure and items worth up to 24 keys rejected. There is evidence of this hat selling for between these two numbers later.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8802979[/url] : This one is the most evident of it's higher value through rejections. Many offers, from 12 keys to 17.5 keys, were all rejected.


Trade Acceptions

Evidence here not only proves that sellers are selling at a higher price than what the current value is at, but people are willing to purchase them for that price as well.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7588432[/url] : This seller rejected earlier offers of 16 keys pure and items adding up to 24 keys, so he likely sold it for around 20 keys. I tried to contact the buyer to find out exactly what he paid for it, but he would not cooperate with me.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8782025[/url] : I was able to get a hold of the buyer of this Geisha, who purchased the hat with a Nuts N Bolts Prince Tavish's Crown as seen here: [url]http://i.imgur.com/tvdTEUn.jpg[/url]. Now this hat is worth about 20 keys, defined by [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9569087[/url] and [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9245145[/url] so with the one key taken away in the trade the Geisha was worth about 19 keys.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8402776[/url] : While I was not able to reach the seller, he states that his price of 18 keys was the lowest on the market at its time.

[url]http://s3.amazonaws.com/awesome_screenshot/1280972?AWSAccessKeyId=0R7FMW7AXRVCYMAPTPR2&Expires=1365133030&Signature=yJYosqnkVEnH75OzH2yRnLewaCc%3D[/url] : In this trade the Geisha was sold for a SF minigun, which at its time 3 months ago was worth from 21-24 keys.


With all things considered above, it is clear that the value of the Orbiting Planets Geisha Boy must change in order to more accurately fit what it is being sold for on the market today. I suggest about 16 keys for low, and 20 as high.

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      I think you posted the wrong link for the second rejection (same link as first)

      fourth link is from 3 months ago, but you have others

      fifth link - he added you to talk after you offered 14 + sweets. what ended up happening?


      that said, great first suggestion

        Alright, I noted the double link and got the real one. And I traded him 16 keys about.

        16 is too high, it should be 14 to 19

        Some Dayum good research mayn.

          Good job UP+

            Not sure I agree with your analysis.

            As I see it, buyers are settling for unusuals, due to lack of pure offers on the hat, at the high end by an 18 key hat(you state it's worth 20 keys, due to one auction listing where it sold for that). Item trades and unusual trades are usually taken at a percentage of pure, and even if it had been a pure trade, would have fallen within range.

            At the same time, we don't have evidence of the final price agreement on the suggested 18 key pure sale you reference, just that he/she traded it at some point and the original buyout was 18 keys, still within range of the hat.

            Also 3 month old trades(like the last of your accepted trade link) are hardly applicable to today's market.

            As for your trade rejections, none of those would top out the current price range, even if they WERE pure.

            Am I the only person that sees these problems with the original analysis, given the proof on hand?


            PS. In the future, mention your ownership of an item your suggesting a new price range for, to avoid immediate scrutiny.