Team Fortress 2
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
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Countersuggestion (other one is 20-22). Pure offers in 18-20 range. Unusual sales are actually 14-24. Sticking with 18-20 for the actual price.
Pure offers / sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9292109 - Sold for 20 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9780543 - Offer of 18 keys
Unusual offers / sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9780809 - 16 keys in unusuals (sold for this 3 days ago) - proof of sale here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9698100
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9684203 - 13.5 keys in unusuals (the same guy bought for this 4 days ago)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9731783 - 22 keys in unusuals (sold for a Steaming Lid)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9762810 - 24 keys in unusuals (offer of N&B Baker + 5 keys)
Unusual sales are all across the board - 14-24 - and are unreliable indicators of its true value (plus you have to account for overpay). Pure offers and sales are occurring at 18-20. That should be the price.
1st Link - Yes, it was sold for 20 keys which is my range as well
2nd Link - Offer of 18 keys, but it was sold for a N&B Kabuto and he added 12 keys http://i.imgur.com/3HNjufB.png Which if you do the math values the Rack at 20 keys
3rd Link - Look at the history of the hat, it didn't sell for him.
4th Link - Didn't even have a Rack to begin with
5th Link - 22 is in my range
6th Link - How can that even help you?
Okay man, you have either made me or yourself a complete fool. And I honestly can't figure out who. Maybe its me. But this is what I'm seeing from this hats history. All sales are between 16-22 in unusuals.
CopperTop is on Break CIAO sold to Gecko_Echo for N&B jeepcap (18.5 keys in unusuals)
Gecko_Echo sold to Brayza for Fetti Geezer (16 keys in unusuals)
Brayza sold to [SE]/XoRs/ - unclear for what
[SE]/XoRs/ sold it to |PaKaY| acb1207 for smoking hard top (16 keys in unusuals)
|PaKaY| acb1207 sold it to PENCER for bubbling hetmans (13.5 keys in unusual)
PENCER sold it to the musher for steaming billycock (16 keys in unusuals) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9698100
Musher sold to Lynx for steaming lid (22 keys in unusuals)
Am I missing something here?
How can you be so sure tha Recrutando Heavy didn't add stuff? And XoRs didn't go to Recrutnado Heavy, it went to |PaKaY| acb1207
Yes Pencil sold the Rack to musher but NOT for the Billycock
And the Steaming Lid doesn't help you at all as it is in my range
I edited this to go back further in the history, check this again
And recrutando heavy just changed his name to acb1207. same person...
And what do you mean PENCER didn't trade the rack to musher for the billycock. He's the very next person listed on the history of the rack. And I have proof of the offer here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9698100. His bp history on bp.tf doesn't show any other unusuals.. And his trade history doesn't show any other unusuals. Whatever the case, when you consider overpay in unusuals, 20-22 would still be too high considering all the trades for this hat shown above. True we can't be exactly sure about what sweets were added in all of them but the last 3 sales for 13.5, 16, 22 appear to be 1:1 based on their bp histories.
Also, middle range on N&B buto is 1.2 buds = 31.2 keys. He added 12 keys + sweets for it, which would be a 19 key deal in unusuals. Without unusual overpay, that's in my range. With 10% unusual overpay = about a 17 key deal. That's technically below both of our ranges.
In summary, all of this back and forth should lead us both to the same conclusion - that unusual offers are all over the place. The most reliable way to price this is based on pure offers and sales, which are currently 18-20.
This is better.
This is better, 22 key high end on other one is a bit too speculatory.