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Updating a 1/1 with recent sales, should be pretty straightforward.
-Three sales in the last month, no others since the start of July
-One hard-to-track sale with an outdated hat, then two almost-completely pure sales used to set the range
The hat: http://backpack.tf/item/1648846719
Sale 1, Sept. 23: ???
Only sale I can't verify personally since the beginning of July, and hard to track, but appears to have involved an Orbiting Fire Backwards Ballcap (outdated, 20.5) and some keys? Looks like not all items were registered in all the backpacks they passed through.
Seller pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047572767?time=1442991600
Seller post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047572767?time=1443078000
20 of those keys were bought through paypal ( http://backpack.tf/trust/76561198053252981 ) and definitely not involved. No sign from histories of the others being part of it, but looks like several trades in a day or two range without all being detected here. Sorting post-sale by time, it looks like there were 11 associated with the ballcap, which would put it near the suggestion range. May be helpful for updating the 5-month-old price on the ballcap if it can be nailed down?
Sale 2, Sept. 24: 30 keys
Bought it for 29 keys + Rancho + purple Vive Le France, rounding to 30
http://i.imgur.com/ZpO6K4t.png
http://i.imgur.com/vcy6fyj.png (with effect visible)
The b/o was 30, listed on backpack.tf I think?
Sale 3, Oct. 7: 40 keys
Sold for 40 pure
http://i.imgur.com/9PGxJpN.png
http://i.imgur.com/V51OuNE.png (with effect visible)
The b/o was 40, honestly wasn't expecting it to move that quickly since I bought the hat to keep myself, but the b/o is the b/o.
Summary: Second two sales are obvious. First sale is for an outdated hat, is difficult to track, is likely to end up somewhere not too far from the range here, and probably superseded by the more recent pure sales. It does look like it gives a little support to the low end, though, just reinforcing that the second sale wasn't a quicksale (despite the fact that I grabbed it within a day of listing). Just happened to be the effect I was looking for, on one of the three or four hats I was looking for, at a reasonable price.
Guy who bought it from me said it's a present, so don't be too shocked if it changes hands shortly for what looks like nothing.
Quick update, looks like the friend has a private backpack or something along those lines. Hasn't been seen since, so no further sales.
And probably final update, the friend's backpack is public, not sure why it wasn't showing up. Friend has often played with the same tag before their name as the guy who bought it. Gift as expected, based on backpack sorted by time.
before http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000527551?time=1444238732
after http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000527551?time=1444287600